Political Metaphor - and being wise after the event

I was thinking about writing a piece about Taiwan’s (big) recall and the political, social and constitutional machinations surrounding it. 

 Then I was obviously struck by the boiling frog metaphor given the way the KMT is using its tiny majority with the TMD to take tiptoe steps, which no-one cares much or notices, to achieve closer ties with mainland China. Actions which prompted the recall campaign in the first place.  

It’s certainly an apt metaphor given the apathy, disinterest and laissez-faire attitude of many Taiwanese voters, plus an apparent lack of critical thinking about how their actions now within the current democracy will affect their future or generations to come.

 The stupid frog is happy in cold water but it is too dumb to realise the water is getting hotter…until it dies.     

 However, on passing the idea by my Taiwanese wife, she quickly dismissed the frog metaphor as it has become cliched because the local media use it all the time. Understandably so, as it seems many Taiwanese are sleepwalking into closer ties with China. The last general election kind of proved that.  

 The boiling frog lesson is clear. Beware slow and small changes that will not noticeably alter your normal course of life and do not make a noticeable difference at the time.  Once you realise the cumulative effect is huge, like the frog who finally realises the water is boiling… It is too late.

 The Camel’s Nose

 The camel's nose is a metaphor from the Middle East for the same situation, where allowing small, apparently innocent acts will open the door for larger, undesirable actions. It too can be applied in Taiwan’s case. 

An ancient saying in the Arab world, by the late 1800s it was being told as ‘An Arab miller allows a camel to stick its nose into his bedroom, then other parts of its body, until the camel is entirely inside and refuses to leave.’ 

In the early part of the last century, Horace Scudder, an American scholar and editor ends his missive The Arab and His Camel ends with: "It is a wise rule to resist the beginnings of evil." 

It is hard to think of a more apt metaphor than China worming its way into Taiwan as the KMT takes small steps that no one notices while the camel (China) sticks its head further into the tent and eventually gets right in. Then refuses to leave.

If You Give a Mouse a Cookie

I particularly like this one. It is from a 1985 American children's book by Laura Joffe Numeroff to illustrate that if you let someone take an inch, they will take a mile. (yet another example of how widespread this idiom is). 

 The story begins with a boy who feels sorry for a little mouse and gives him a cookie. The mouse devours the cookie gratefully but then asks for a glass of milk to wash it down. 

 The boy provides the milk but the mouse then asks for a straw to drink the milk and a napkin and a mirror to check he has no milk on his snout. Then he asks for scissors to cut his hair as he already has a mirror and also a broom to sweep up his hair trimmings. 

 The mouse is tired after all this activity and wants a nap, but only if he has a story read to him. After his nap he draws a picture and hangs it on the refrigerator but looking at the refrigerator he gets thirsty and asks for a glass of milk. “Oh, but I need a cookie to go with my glass of milk,” says the mouse.  

 The circular demands of the greedy and devious mouse have much in common with modern politics and, indeed, to demands by voters when benefits or handouts are on the line. 

 Evidence of this is the KMT’s promise of TWD 10,000 to everyone in Taiwan. That’s the Cookie. They know it will sow discontent if A) they are prevented from handing out the money B) if alternative goodies are not on offer and C) they will look good whether the 10k happens, or not. 

 If there is no handout, the DPP looks bad for opposing it. If it happens, the KMT will look wonderful for making it happen. 

 It’s a horribly cynical political move which takes no account of the actual state of the fiscal account in Taiwan. But blatant and cynical moves which bear no relation to Taiwan’s economic or geopolitical situation are the KMT’s usual mode of operation. Evidence opposing defence contracts… and some other things… ****** 

 Thin End of the Wedge

 From my own neck of the woods, the United Kingdom, this situation is usually summed up by saying a situation is ‘The thin end of the wedge’. 

This comes from the carpentry and logging industry where wedges of iron or steel were used to split wood. The small effort of hammering a wedge can eventually split a massive log.

 It is yet another metaphor illustrating the danger of small things leading to huge consequences.

 There are so many versions of this from around the world which would seem to illustrate that the danger of allowing small steps to quietly lead to much bigger things is a well recognised danger. All of them would seem to apply to Taiwan and the mainland, not just the boiling frog.

 The list is exhaustive but here is a small selection. "Give the peasant freedom, and he will hop on your bed"- Greece. "If you give them a finger, they will take your arm" - India, Italy, Germany and pretty much the rest of Europe. “A rolling snowball will be harder to stop” - Norway. "Give them a dog, they want an elephant” - Vietnam. "Give them an inch; they'll take a mile." - UK, China, Turkey. "If you let the pig under the bed today, tomorrow it will demand to be on the bed" - Bulgaria. 

 The Slippery Slope

 The slippery slope argument is a negative one where there is an attempt to stop  someone from taking a course of action because it will lead to an undesirable  conclusion.

 Away from these folklore sayings handed down over generations warning that small changes can easily lead to cumulative disaster, others refer to this phenomenon as Creeping Normality.

 In 2005,  American scientist Jared Diamond explained it in his book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Diamond sought to explain why the natives of Easter Island in the southeastern Pacific Ocean, in the course of long-term environmental degradation, irrationally, chopped down all their trees.

 “I suspect, though, that the disaster happened not with a bang but with a whimper. After all, there are those hundreds of abandoned statues to consider. The forest the islanders depended on for rollers and rope didn't simply disappear one day—it vanished slowly, over decades,” Diamond wrote. 

It would seem wise to take note of this ancient and global wisdom of not ignoring the small things because they quite often turn into big things without anyone really noticing until it is too late.

Tinkerty Tonk

Taiwan’s recall vote for closer ties with China is clear to all the world

The results of the Big Recall last weekend sends a strong message to the rest of the world that the island’s people are happy to see closer ties between Taiwan and China. 

 The landslide victory for pro-China members of parliament, meaning they still have a slim coalition majority in the legislature, basically tells the foreign media, politicians and diplomats that the people of Taiwan want to be closer to the mainland.  

Also, they would likely be more than happy with a Hong Kong style of living under Beijing rule. Remembering of course the Hong Kong handover was brokered by the British which, ironically, is seen as the beacon of democracy. 

Look at Hong Kong now. 

The headlines are telling. Many major overseas news outlets lead by linking the pro-China stance of these MPs to the outcome of the recall.

BBC - 'Pro-China' politicians survive Taiwan vote to kick them out. 

Associated Press -  Taiwan votes to decide whether to oust lawmakers from China-friendly party in closely watched poll. 

New York Times -Taiwan President’s Gambit: Time for a Tougher Stance on China. 

Washington Post - Voters in Taiwan reject bid to oust China-friendly lawmakers in closely watched poll. 

ABC Australia - 'Hostile China will be very pleased': Taiwan politics in crisis. 

CNN - Taiwan is paralyzed by political gridlock. A mass recall of ‘pro-China’ lawmakers could break that.

I’m sure there are many at home who will tap their nose wisely and say “Ah, but they are foreign media, they don’t understand.” If I had USD100 for every time someone has told me that from the UK, to Japan, to China to India, I could go on, I’d be a rich man. It is naive, parochial and simply lacks a broader outlook. 

Perception is a powerful thing and to underestimate it is extremely dangerous. Politicians often act on media perception, diplomats less so, but diplomats have to convince politicians. It can be, if I can put it this way - an unvirtuous circle.    

It is equally dangerous to believe that somehow Taiwan is different because of its recent turbulent history with China and Japan, or that it is in some way special. Taiwan is a small island of just 23 million people and the only thing it has going for it on the world stage is semi-conductors.

It is not a giant oil producer which the likes of the US rely on for economic survival, evidence of past Middle East conflicts, and is worth going to war over. Taiwan is not in the same league.  

TSMC will save us? 

While hugely important to the world, Taiwan’s TSMC will not in itself save the country from China and as time goes on and C. C. Wei cuddles up to the United States with promises of billions of dollars worth of investment, the island’s grip on this premium will diminish.  

Wei has promised to increase investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. by $100 billion with three new fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center.

It’s too easy to explain away KMT support with fear, and a chain of thought that if you don’t upset China they will forget they want to take physical and political control of Taiwan. Which takes us back to the word - naive.

For an island constantly over-flown with fully armed Chinese fighter jets, its surrounding seas patrolled by the PLA Navy and a constant stream of bellicose comments by countless generals of imminent invasion, it would seem desperately naive to think they do not mean business. 

Earlier this year China’s defense ministry spokesperson told Taiwan “We will come and get you, sooner or later”. Oh yes, that means they are happy to keep the status quo?

Bear in mind that no western power regularly makes any comment about these daily direct threats to Taiwan’s sovereignty. Direct criticism of China’s bullying is brutally absent on the world stage in any way that keeps pace with the regularity of the fighter jet incursions. No one really cares.  

Is it fear of a military invasion which worries people into voting for the KMT in a belief that sops engineered by the KMT to help Chinese wives, or give concessions to healthcare for Chinese families? If that is the thinking, we come back to the word, naive.

My fear for Taiwan is that it is a democracy. Overseas democracies could well be thinking…’Well, if they are voting for the KMT they clearly want closer ties with China, why should we bother even thinking about defending them in the future?” Particularly if their semiconductor trump card becomes weaker.

All Taiwan’s potential friends and allies in the world have gigantic domestic budget problems which they can’t cope with now. If their politicians start to think Taiwan’s solid democracy is actually voting to be closer to China, then that is what their people want. It’s a fine excuse not to budget for a fight with China. 

On top of which all China’s potential friends have huge financial interest in remaining friends with China. Trump is in the White House for the time being and his Make America Great Again would take precedence over helping tiny Taiwan defend itself from the mainland. That much must be clear to any Taiwan voter. Germany, France and Britain are the same. 

The polls and the status quo   

A University I used to teach at, National Chengchi University (NCCU), produces an excellent poll called The Changes in Unification - Independence Stances of Taiwanese. A better title would be Independence vs Beijing rule but it illustrates well the change in attitude of Taiwan voters. 

When you look at the 1994 to current trends, the most noticeable was in 2018 when the DDP bombed in the local council elections. This was seen at the time as a vote of no confidence in President Tsai Ing-wen administration, both because of relations with China as well as economics and social issues like pollution, labor laws and wages. The change in the poll is quite striking if you look at the chart.

The feeling that Taiwan should ‘maintain the status quo but move towards independence’ and ‘maintain the status quo indefinitely’ both jumped. While the hitherto highest polling category ‘maintain the status quo and decide at a later date’ collapsed. The other polling questions are not statistically relevant.

The point is the chart now shows overwhelmingly that voters say their wish is for the status quo to be continued indefinitely. This would appear to be a fine expectation, peace in our time. (European history buffs would know what I am referring to here, search Neville Chamberlain).

Which brings me back to the word naive. Expecting the mainland to just stop it and allow things to carry on as they are is ridiculous, they have already invested too much in their power plays and belligerence. They are unhappy with the status quo, the fact that voters are happy with it, is irrelevant.

Unless the Democratic People’s Party (DDP) stops their soft acceptance of lies, gaslighting and deception it will likely continue to carry public opinion.

One has to wonder how many of the pro-KMT votes were based on the money promised to voters in the form of a free government handout. To those voters who went to the polls with that in mind, please think more carefully about what your future may look like under Beijing. Who are not known to give money away to ordinary people.

 Nine-in-One Elections   

Next year sees the local council elections which are more important than many people think. In the above example we can see how the local elections changed political sentiment in Taiwan in 2018. These elections in 2026 could well be a similar turning point and the DPP obviously knows this, how could they not? After the recall embarrassment, the question is will they take action? 

Subnational elections can seem unimportant but in Taiwan the way the city to city relationships via the parties feeds up to the central government is seldom noticed by the central government. It explains why local council elections in many countries are largely ignored by voters but actually have a large impact on central government. 

The trips by some of the newly elected MPs to China underscore this. Their influence on the central government is substantial. The so-called Hualian-King being a case in point. Their influence via local temples is huge and feeds through to the higher authorities in Taipei. Since their defeat in late 1949 the Kuomintang has had huge power in this particular local base.    

In any battle, an attack is quite often met with a counter-attack. The DPP generally doesn't do this, or their response is weak and ineffective. Taking the moral high-ground it all very well but it’s not working for the DPP politically. They are clearly losing the fight and if they fail, Taiwan will become the next Hong Kong. Just another notch on the bedpost for the mainland.

Tinkerty Tonk