It is clear, even to this foreigner, that the KMT and TPP are China friendly, while the DPP policy is one of guarded engagement, the status-quo and, while not wanting to mention the dreaded ‘I’ word, a country at ease with itself with its democracy of elected rulers and officials, its own laws, its own economy, army, police force, economy, education and health system.
All institutions that would surely bleed away under Chinese rule as we are currently witnessing with Hong Kong. Not to mention the total loss of freedom-of-speech.
The DPP loss of overall control of the legislature does carry some dangers if both the KMT and TPP move to attempt to get closer to China against the DDP’s and the new President's basic policies.
But after the unedifying farce of their pre-election attempts to share the Presidency, it would appear there is little likelihood either of them will be able to hone their negotiating skills enough to ever agree on anything of much importance.
The ex-Taipei mayor’s almost cartoonish glum face splashed across front-pages when the talks collapsed, aptly demonstrated that his ego is way more important to him than policy making. One can only hope their embarrassing squabbles will continue and any madness about getting closer to China will fade as they chest-bump each other like Saturday night drunks in a seedy bar.
The leader of the KMT and his pleasant but vacant grin didn’t seem to know quite what was happening throughout the entire process and clearly had former KMT President Ma’s hand stuck up his back like a ventriloquist's dummy.
While the loss of the majority is certainly an issue for the DPP and is certainly a barrier to policy-making, many countries are in the same boat in terms of legislative majorities and get on with things perfectly well, although at a generally slower rate.
The outlying wings of any political party can step in at any time to scupper government initiatives, even if parliamentary votes are whipped. Evidence of this is unfolding before our very eyes with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak completely failing to control his party as the right-wing rebels over an immigration bill. And that is with a large majority without the need to work with a third party. Note the Conservative initial 80-seat majority has been hacked back by by-elections after scandals and resignations.
So it’s not the end of the world, and I would be quietly confident that if the KMT and TPP band together to try and do something mad like cutting back on defence spending - as we all know some in their ranks would like to do - there would be rebels in their ranks who would defy the whip. That, together with an accompanying public outcry would likely prevent anything stupid happening with regards to China.
I’m still struggling to come to terms with the fact that one KMT legislator tried to sabotage the launch of Taiwan’s first Hai Kun Class submarine by leaking information about it. In many countries that would be classed as an act of treason.
So madness and stupidity aside, the importance of William Lai’s win, lies more with Taiwan’s diplomatic standing in the world and mainly its continued good relationship with the United States. Of the three candidates he is clearly the best choice to get out there and argue Taiwan’s case around the world and glad-hand its allies.
The US reaction to his victory was an almost immediate trip by a high-level delegation of former top officials who arrived the following day, and just as immediately testing China’s reaction to the election result. Try to persuade me this was a coincidence or that the trip had not been planned months ago in the event of a Lai victory.
To this end, Lai’s new job puts him at the forefront of keeping the US on-side and building the diplomatic relationship with its key long-time ally. As Chinese jets overfly Taiwan on a daily basis, their warships test the waters around and thousands of missiles are aimed at you and I, what could be more important than the one country which would step in and help if China goes as crazy as Russia’s President Putin did with Ukraine.
All that said, it can be hard to like America. It can be brash, crass and selfishly capitalist. It can be self-centred, inward-looking, wilfully difficult and, at times, downright idiotic.
On top of its existing flawed genetics, the world is currently looking on with amazement at the legal shenanigans surrounding the former president and the apparent madness of some of its political figures whose lies and behaviour, not to put too fine a point on it, is also criminal.
In 1939, soon to be British Prime Minister Winston Churchill described Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" during a radio address on the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. It was a metaphorical shrug of the shoulders of puzzlement about a country’s behaviour and actions.
The United States is the same. It is so full of contradictions and currently so volatile politically that it is hard to understand, muchless predict, its behaviour. That said, recent events should, in themselves, be enough to lend weight to the argument that the Good Ole U S of A should be seen as Taiwan’s main hope of salvation.
There have been two recent announcements which seem to have passed Taiwan media editorial meetings un-noticed. No surprise there, I guess.
The first was just before Christmas when the US announced it was, as the CNN headline put it “US Air Force to reclaim Pacific airfield that launched atomic bombings as it looks to counter China.”
This is a significant move and has not had the publicity in Taiwan it deserved. The Pacific airfield they are looking to Air Force is looking to reclaim is on Tinian which is part of the North Mariana Islands which is around 200 kilometres north-east of Guam and 2,760 south-east of where I’m currently sitting by the Tamsui River.
It is a place out of memory but nevertheless highly significant historically. Those of you with Google Earth can see what it looks like now but in its heyday it was deemed to be the busiest airport in the world - well, there was a war on. Tinian served as the forward operating base in the Pacific and from where it made relentless attacks on the Philippines, Okinawa, and mainland Japan. It was reported the ground literally shook as planes took off every minute of every day.
It is also notable as the place where America’s B-29 Superfortress bomber Enola Gay and three days later Bockscar took off from to drop the Little Boy (17 Kilotons) and Fat Man (21 Kilotons) nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A Kiloton is a unit of explosive power equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT. This attack ended World War II so Tinian has a significant place in history.
While its runways are now overgrown with the relentless jungle, the US Air Force plans to spend millions making the airbase operational again. It is worth noting that Taiwan lies around the same distance from Tinian as Japan does so is most certainly within its operational parameters. It is the perfect place for the US to step in and protect Taiwan from the air.
Also, just before Christmas U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law a record-breaking US$886 billion defence policy package which included measures to counter Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific region and assist Taiwanese forces.
Globally, China has the second biggest defence spending below the US but it is around a third of the size at around $300 billion. Their military machine is also likely to be far less sophisticated than the US, just as Russia’s military machine proved to be far less effective than a lot of people thought before Ukraine. Remember the predictions after the Ukraine invasion that it would all be over in a week and here we are nearly two years later?
The likely poor state of China’s military seems to be borne out by Xi’s recent purge of corrupt generals following shortfalls in the quality of army equipment including missiles. Bloomberg has a good story about this under the headline - US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army - if you want to look it up.
Meanwhile Japan, historically constrained by its pacifist constitution adopted after surrendering in WWII, is now embarking on a record military expansion and on the same day approved a 16 percent increase in military spending for 2024 to US$56 billion. So Taiwan’s allies are moving in the right direction in any potential defence of the island.
Taiwan is anyway a difficult country to invade from the sea because of its largely rocky coastline, supply lines would be long and difficult to maintain and the only real alternatives are parachute troops or bombing, both extremely risky strategies militarily and diplomatically.
Add to that the fact that the world would likely react extremely negatively and impose strong sanctions on China in the event of an armed invasion, just as they did on Russia with Ukraine. With the South China Sea dispute an invasion would trigger a wave of unrest across Asia and only serve to isolate China even further and engender a pretty much global wave of hatred towards it.
I see the likelihood of a military invasion by China as extremely remote.
The one person who might actually scupper any defence of Taiwan by the US could be a man who has proven himself to be an untrustworthy liar and false friend, Donald Trump. The Washington Post says it tracked Trump's false or misleading claims at 30,573 over 4 years. He faces four criminal indictments, two on state charges and two on federal charges. These indictments amount to a total of 91 felony charges.
It’s ironic this is the very man some Taiwanese I meet think he will somehow become the saviour of Taiwan if he regains the presidency. This thinking is fundamentally flawed and seems to be only based on the simplistic notion that because Trump stood up to China more publicly and more aggressively than previous administrations he will obviously pull out all the stops over Taiwan.
These people could not be more wrong. The current US administration is being tough on China by spending vast sums beefing up the US Pacific military presence and committing to maintaining peace in the Pacific.
Trump also loves Xi and admires him hugely. He described Xi as an exceptionally intelligent individual who governs China’s population with “iron” authority. “Think of President Xi. Central casting, brilliant guy. You know, when I say he’s brilliant, everyone says, ‘Oh that’s terrible',” said Trump. “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.”
These are the rantings of, I’m sorry to say, an unstable and untrustworthy man and Trump has proved he is happy to push his old friends, allies, lawyers and employees under a bus if it suits him. I would argue he is probably more likely to come down on the side of Xi in a Taiwan invasion scenario, rather than a different president who most likely continues on the current path of putting in place expensive initiatives to keep China at bay in the Pacific.
As president, this man would again be Commander-in-Chief of the military. It really doesn’t bear thinking about if the chips were down with Xi, who he appears to love so much, quite what this unbalanced individual would do.
If you live in Taiwan you really need to hope Trump is not successful in his current bid to regain the White House. He is way more likely to pull the US away from the Pacific and Taiwan as part of his America First policy. Anyone who thinks the opposite is deluding themselves, or at least gambling on the fact that Trump really has the intellectual capacity to deal with an invasion in a way that would result in anything other than making himself look good.
Winnie the Pooh once said “A day without a friend is like a pot without a single drop of honey left inside."
The United States is Taiwan’s pot of honey. I hope we don’t lose the last drop.
Tinkerty Tonk...
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