Monday, July 10, 2023

Economics 101 -2

Despite the Cat’s best efforts translating the interview, I can’t for the life of me understand what Ko is talking about when he says Taiwan is in a Middle Income Trap. 

A Middle Income country is defined by the World Bank as one with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita between USD1,036 and 12,535. Taiwan currently has a GNI per capita of USD33,565, slightly higher than that of South Korea. Broadly speaking both countries have been returning similar figures for years.

China apparently managed to escape the trap around 2015 and now has a GNI per capita of around USD20,000, but given the size of the economy many economists still consider this to be low enough for it to be considered to be still stuck in the trap.

Taiwan successfully escaped the middle-income trap a couple of decades ago, helped by a democratic political system, the nurturing of high-value-added technology industries, for example TSMC, and reduced levels of economic inequality.

Now, Taiwan is actually in danger of falling into a high-income trap, because of its low birth rate, a potential for greater inequality and growing political polarization.

Maybe Ko is mistaken in his terminology and means Middle Class Income which is an entirely  different thing and it has to be said that wage disparity and the income gap, particularly in terms of young people, does urgently need to be addressed.

But to say Taiwan is in a Middle Income Trap is economic nonsense. It appears Ko read it somewhere but as usual didn’t bother to read it carefully and understand it before trotting it out in this interview trying to sound like he knows what he’s talking about. 

Another Pie in the Face FAIL, I’m afraid. 

Tinkerty Tonk…

Sunday, July 9, 2023

The cancer of political lies

It appears gorging on lies for political gain gives instant gratification and quickly fattens a political career, but if carried to excess leads to a bloated and ugly monster unable to move or dodge the inevitable retribution of crass and unforgivable behaviour.

Those who watch global politics will instantly know the two ex-leaders, Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, who are currently the best examples of this. 

What worries me is that others around the world, particularly wannabe leaders, are aping this appalling behaviour as an easier route to power than being honest with the electorate and decent in their behaviour within their own democratic process. 

It is a desperately depressing thought that such conduct appears to have found its way to Taiwan and is manifest ahead of what is a crucial presidential election early next year where the overriding, vitally important, beat-all topic is the relationship with China.

On this vital subject we are already seeing obfuscation, avoidance and outright lies. Which is no real surprise given the - to my mind - absurd One China Principle, the One China with respective interpretations (1992 Consensus) and the One China policy as the United States see it as a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.

So where are you and I? Are we caught up in a democracy with one party who apparently wants to say and pursue the unspeakable “I” word, but cannot, and a party, or parties, who clearly want to be closer to China but cannot actually say that out loud.  

To date, it would seem ‘we the people’ are stuck a cleft stick unable to decade much either way as to definite policies that might be put in place and can only guess until our final decision at the ballot box on the day. 

Most of the current political rhetoric is vague at best on the vital issue of China and there is huge room for disappointment if, for example, the next president decides to embrace China and moves away from the current status quo. 

Divide and conquer - the Latin phrase “Divide et impera” is as old as politics and war. It is  attributed to Julius Cesar and he successfully applied it to conquer Gaul (France) over two thousand years ago. It is wholly at work in Taiwan with the two more pro-China candidates happy to trot out their old and tired lines on China which is leaving many confused as to their ultimate motives should they gain power.

Does a vote for them mean a vote for a closer relationship with China? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t but at the moment everyone is having to guess because they are not brave enough to actually give solid guidance as to their intentions. They simply mouth platitudes. 

Having just watched two of the world’s leading nations fall facelong into the trap set by lying and gaslighting politicians, I would hate for Taiwan to fall into the same trap, given the repercussions are so massively life changing compared to our Trump and Johnson examples.

Boris Johnson’s lies and deceit, mainly about Brexit, certainly helped propel him to power in July 2019 but his continued lies about other issues saw him unceremoniously kicked out of office by his own party and he has since even resigned as a member of parliament because of a damning report finding him guilty of misleading the British Parliament. 

China is a huge conundrum for Taiwanese voters which is more acute, but not unlike, the choice faced by the electorate in the United Kingdom before the absurd referendum over Britain’s membership of the European Union. Sadly the British public voted to break ties with the European Union and the “Sunny Uplands” promised by Boris Johnson’s lies and they voted for him in droves. 

“Get Brexit done” was his slogan but the British people now regret leaving Europe with a poll last month showing 55 percent of Brits thought that it was wrong to leave the European Union, compared with just 34 percent who thought it was the right decision. Many complain they were lied to by Johnson and his government about the benefits of Brexit.

It would be terribly sad if Taiwanese voters end up regretting their choice of next president in the coming months and years if China is allowed more influence over their lives through a Sino-friendly administration. Then it will be too late. 

Johnson’s short-lived political career may have crashed and burned but it certainly is not as spectacular as ex-president Donald Trump’s clownish pitch for the Republican presidential nomination in November 2024. 

Mired in lawsuits ranging from mishandling state secrets to accusations he paid off a porn star, Trump’s legal woes are manifest. He is facing charges in two criminal investigations, and was ordered to pay millions of dollars to a writer after being found liable for sexual abuse.

He is also under investigation for his alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat.

As ridiculous as it may seem he is still hugely popular in the United States even though he is the  first president to be indicted twice. 

A poll by ABC News and Ipsos conducted after his second indictment was consolidating more and more support from the people who believe his federal indictment was politically motivated  and is considered as the front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

The roller-coaster of insanity and lies since Trump was kicked out of office in 2020 continues to divide America and has certainly shaken faith in the democratic process. Polls show there is little enthusiasm about the 2024 presidential front-runners and there is continued alarm about U.S. institutions.

Seven out of 10 Americans agree with the statement that American democracy is "imperilled," according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll ahead of Independence Day (July 4). 

Gaslighting, half-truths, misdirection and downright lies have damaged these once great democracies and left electorates questioning whether their political systems are severely broken and requiring major repair.

Taiwan may be tiny in comparison but its democracy is solid. The danger is that copycat politicians here see lying and misdirection as the new normal and will indulge themselves to gain political power. 

Plenty of damage and disappointment can result because the wheels of justice grind exceedingly slow and by the time lying and incompetent politicians are found out and dealt with in the proper manner, the damage has been done. Just look at the United States and the United Kingdom.

Tinkerty Tonk...