Over the past few years I’ve met some lovely folks in Taiwan who were enthusiastic Donald Trump supporters based mainly on the fact that he was more forthright with his anti-China rhetoric than previous US administrations during his one time in office from 2017 to 2021.
Their view is based on the fact his administration tended to lean more towards seeing the overall good that supporting Taiwan would be for the U.S. from a foreign policy viewpoint and that this will be the case going forward should he win again.
However, Trump was always more circumspect and his focus has been largely on trade and the monetary aspect of dealings with China. Nearly all his criticism of China was trade and exchange rate based which jived with his overriding ‘America First’ policy. Aside from a few snipes at them about the Olympics and pollution and small, more general, issues.
It would seem naive to believe Trump will be more inclined to help Taiwan in the future if tension escalates more. The fact the former President stood up to China on trade and was more forthright with his rhetoric than previous US administrations would appear to be scant reason to believe he would go much further should the worst happen re-Taiwan/China.
Anyone here observing Trump knows full well he is a convicted criminal. Aside from the monotonous regularity we have to suffer hearing his unbalanced rantings, outright lies and childish insults against his political rivals, he has huge legal troubles.
He is still the first former president to be convicted of a felony when a Manhattan jury in May found him guilty of 34 charges related to falsifying business records in order to cover up a hush-money payment Trump made to porn-star Stormy Daniels.
He has yet to be sentenced for that crime but in another case he was ordered to pay more than USD 88.0 million for defaming and sexually abusing the writer E. Jean Carroll, an American journalist, author, and advice columnist.
While he has won some legal victories of late, he still goes into this election as a convicted criminal with three other cases of election subversion pending following his dictator-like attack on democracy during the 2020 election debacle. How can you begin to trust a man like this will behave in any way that does not benefit himself personally?
We already know Trump admires Xi, Putin and Kim Jong Un, labelling them as strong leaders and showers them with sycophantic adoration. He said of Xi last year, “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.”
Saying everything is ‘perfect’ in China shows just how out of touch he is with the current state of the world.
His praise of Kim had members of his own Republican Party decrying his comments. He posted on social media in May - “My relationship with Kim Jong Un was very beautiful. We got along very well. I got along great with him. Very strong guy. He is the absolute leader of his country”
Adding later about the North Korean dictator, “Very smart guy, very strong guy. He’s the absolute leader of that country.” In 2018, for example, the then-American president repeatedly praised Kim, calling the dictator “open,” “honourable,” and “a pretty smart cookie.” “I do trust him, yeah.” Later in the same interview the then-president added, “His country does love him. His people, you see the fervor. They have a great fervor.”
When I was stationed in the Beijing bureau I visited Pyongyang many times and I’m here to tell you that is incorrect. If Trump thinks this way he has a kindergarten level of understanding of what goes on the DPRK. I would bet he has a similar level of understanding about the Taiwan/China situation.
His praise of Putin is probably most worrying, praising his one time counterpart’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy.” That was in February 2022 the day Russia invaded.
“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview. “He (Putin) used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”
This bizarre statement shows just how little Trump understood about the situation and, as usual, fired off mindless comments with no real understanding of what was happening, or that it was the start of a war that would last years and result in around a million casualties.
Yet some Taiwanese think he can be trusted with Taiwan's situation?
Increasingly bizarre performances by Trump who appears more unhinged by the day, his 78 years are clearly having an impact on his ability to function. I guess it is little surprise that he spent some time talking about the size of the late golf legend Arnold Palmer penis at a rally Saturday in Pennsylvania.
During the same speech he again resulted in crude and childish insults. “We can’t stand you, you’re a shit vice president,” he said of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Party presidential candidate. He rambled on, “Arnold Palmer was all man, and I say that in all due respect to women. And I love women. But this is a guy that was all man…This man was strong and tough, but I refuse to say it, but when he took the showers with the other pros, they came out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s unbelievable.’ I had to say it.”
It’s all beyond bizarre and this is only a small sample of the madness of the unbalanced nature of Trump’s thinking and mercurial behaviour plus his ‘America First’ nationalistic stance. Note his latest rants about tariffs include not just China but imports from other countries as well. He only targets China specifically with higher tariffs because the lion’s share (one third in fact) of the U.S. deficit sits with China.
China $279,424
Mexico $152,379
Vietnam $104,627
Germany $83,021
Japan $71,175
Canada $67,861
Ireland $65,342
South Korea $51,398
Taiwan $47,975
The Trump supporters here should perhaps remember that Taiwan is in ninth place in terms of those countries with the biggest deficit with the US. It is a rich and important country globally with a good export performance and would be badly affected by US tariffs. It ranks number one globally regarding semiconductors which are vital to the world’s industry. Evidence: the supply chain disruptions during Covid where interruption of the shipping of semiconductors from Taiwan had a major impact on industries around the planet.
Remember, Taiwan is in 14th place among the world's wealthiest countries in terms of GDP per capita. This is out of 195 countries in the United Nations of which Taiwan is not included.
Setting aside Trump’s lack of business acumen, he has bankrupted six of his businesses since 1991, it’s hard to see how a continued economic attack on China will help Taiwan’s cause.
China is already sinking into a self-imposed isolation and paranoia and facing huge domestic issues like the collapse of the property market, debt problems and a shrinking economy. Include international confrontation with the South China Sea as well as issues with the Belt and Road initiative which is losing traction mainly as a result of poor risk management and the outlook is bleak.
If China is struggling, which it clearly is at the moment, if you look at the economic evidence available to us all, it’s likely a bad idea for the U.S. to go on the offensive. A wounded animal is dangerous and to hit hard with the blunt instrument of tariffs is a bad idea compared with a more diplomatic approach.
A Harris administration would almost certainly see a continuation of the democrats support for Taiwan and it’s own Pacific security of which this island plays a major role.
My fear is a Trump administration would seek to negotiate a trade deal with China which benefited the U.S. and Taiwan becomes even more of a bargaining chip than it already is on the global diplomatic stage and is sold down the river as part of that deal.
Given the way Trump behaves and given his fairly obvious cognitive deterioration, I would not put that beyond the realms of possibility.
He said when in Beijing in 2017, “I don’t blame China,” Trump said. “After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country to the benefit of its citizens?”
After decades of support from the U.S. I feel sure he would sell Taiwan for thirty pieces of silver in the form of a trade, or other deal, with China.
According to the polls, pretty much 50 percent of Americans support him. Frankly, I’m amazed at that. Most of the rest of the world sees him as a joke, other than a few other right wing countries. I can only put it down to the cult he has built around himself which I have written about in the pages lately.
I’m looking forward to November five and fervently hoping Trump is handed his hat and leaves the room.
He is a dangerous, low intellect right wing populist akin to many of the bad characters we have seen in power throughout history.
I hope and pray the American public will make the same decision as they did in 2020 and reject this clown. He is clearly not fit to be a global player that potentially affects so many lives worldwide.
Including yours.
Tinkierty Tonk....
