Trust Trump - Think again

Over the past few years I’ve met some lovely folks in Taiwan who were enthusiastic Donald Trump supporters based mainly on the fact that he was more forthright with his anti-China rhetoric than previous US administrations during his one time in office from 2017 to 2021. 

Their view is based on the fact his administration tended to lean more towards seeing the overall good that supporting Taiwan would be for the U.S. from a foreign policy viewpoint and that this will be the case going forward should he win again. 

However, Trump was always more circumspect and his focus has been largely on trade and the monetary aspect of dealings with China. Nearly all his criticism of China was trade and exchange rate based which jived with his overriding ‘America First’ policy. Aside from a few snipes at them about the Olympics and pollution and small, more general, issues.

It would seem naive to believe Trump will be more inclined to help Taiwan in the future if tension escalates more. The fact the former President stood up to China on trade and was more forthright with his rhetoric than previous US administrations would appear to be scant reason to believe he would go much further should the worst happen re-Taiwan/China.

Anyone here observing Trump knows full well he is a convicted criminal. Aside from the monotonous regularity we have to suffer hearing his unbalanced rantings, outright lies and childish insults against his political rivals, he has huge legal troubles.

He is still the first former president to be convicted of a felony when a Manhattan jury in May found him guilty of 34 charges related to falsifying business records in order to cover up a hush-money payment Trump made to porn-star Stormy Daniels. 

He has yet to be sentenced for that crime but in another case he was ordered to pay more than USD 88.0 million for defaming and sexually abusing the writer E. Jean Carroll, an American journalist, author, and advice columnist.

While he has won some legal victories of late, he still goes into this election as a convicted criminal with three other cases of election subversion pending following his dictator-like attack  on democracy during the 2020 election debacle. How can you begin to trust a man like this will behave in any way that does not benefit himself personally?

We already know Trump admires Xi, Putin and Kim Jong Un, labelling them as strong leaders and showers them with sycophantic adoration. He said of Xi last year, “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.” 

Saying everything is ‘perfect’ in China shows just how out of touch he is with the current state of the world.

His praise of Kim had members of his own Republican Party decrying his comments. He posted on social media in May - “My relationship with Kim Jong Un was very beautiful. We got along very well. I got along great with him. Very strong guy. He is the absolute leader of his country”

Adding later about the North Korean dictator, “Very smart guy, very strong guy. He’s the absolute leader of that country.” In 2018, for example, the then-American president repeatedly praised Kim, calling the dictator “open,” “honourable,” and “a pretty smart cookie.” “I do trust him, yeah.” Later in the same interview the then-president added, “His country does love him. His people, you see the fervor. They have a great fervor.”

When I was stationed in the Beijing bureau I visited Pyongyang many times and I’m here to tell you that is incorrect. If Trump thinks this way he has a kindergarten level of understanding of what goes on the DPRK. I would bet he has a similar level of understanding about the Taiwan/China situation.

His praise of Putin is probably most worrying, praising his one time counterpart’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy.” That was in February 2022 the day Russia invaded. 

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview. “He (Putin) used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”

This bizarre statement shows just how little Trump understood about the situation and, as usual,  fired off mindless comments with no real understanding of what was happening, or that it was the start of a war that would last years and result in around a million casualties. 

Yet some Taiwanese think he can be trusted with Taiwan's situation?

Increasingly bizarre performances by Trump who appears more unhinged by the day, his 78 years are clearly having an impact on his ability to function. I guess it is little surprise that he spent some time talking about the size of the late golf legend Arnold Palmer penis at a rally Saturday in Pennsylvania. 

During the same speech he again resulted in crude and childish insults. “We can’t stand you, you’re a shit vice president,” he said of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Party presidential candidate. He rambled on, “Arnold Palmer was all man, and I say that in all due respect to women. And I love women. But this is a guy that was all man…This man was strong and tough, but I refuse to say it, but when he took the showers with the other pros, they came out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s unbelievable.’ I had to say it.” 

It’s all beyond bizarre and this is only a small sample of the madness of the unbalanced nature of Trump’s thinking and mercurial behaviour plus his ‘America First’ nationalistic stance. Note his latest rants about tariffs include not just China but imports from other countries as well. He only targets China specifically with higher tariffs because the lion’s share (one third in fact) of the U.S. deficit sits with China.

China $279,424

Mexico $152,379

Vietnam $104,627

Germany $83,021

Japan $71,175

Canada $67,861

Ireland $65,342

South Korea $51,398

Taiwan $47,975 

The Trump supporters here should perhaps remember that Taiwan is in ninth place in terms of those countries with the biggest deficit with the US. It is a rich and important country globally with a good export performance and would be badly affected by US tariffs. It ranks number one globally regarding semiconductors which are vital to the world’s industry. Evidence: the supply chain disruptions during Covid where interruption of the shipping of semiconductors from Taiwan had a major impact on industries around the planet.

Remember, Taiwan is in 14th place among the world's wealthiest countries in terms of GDP per capita. This is out of 195 countries in the United Nations of which Taiwan is not included. 

Setting aside Trump’s lack of business acumen, he has bankrupted six of his businesses since 1991, it’s hard to see how a continued economic attack on China will help Taiwan’s cause. 

China is already sinking into a self-imposed isolation and paranoia and facing huge domestic issues like the collapse of the property market, debt problems and a shrinking economy. Include international confrontation with the South China Sea as well as issues with the Belt and Road initiative which is losing traction mainly as a result of poor risk management and the outlook is bleak. 

If China is struggling, which it clearly is at the moment, if you look at the economic evidence available to us all, it’s likely a bad idea for the U.S. to go on the offensive. A wounded animal is dangerous and to hit hard with the blunt instrument of tariffs is a bad idea compared with a more diplomatic approach.

A Harris administration would almost certainly see a continuation of the democrats support for Taiwan and it’s own Pacific security of which this island plays a major role. 

My fear is a Trump administration would seek to negotiate a trade deal with China which benefited the U.S. and Taiwan becomes even more of a bargaining chip than it already is on the global diplomatic stage and is sold down the river as part of that deal. 

Given the way Trump behaves and given his fairly obvious cognitive deterioration, I would not put that beyond the realms of possibility.

 He said when in Beijing in 2017, “I don’t blame China,” Trump said. “After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country to the benefit of its citizens?”

After decades of support from the U.S. I feel sure he would sell Taiwan for thirty pieces of silver in the form of a trade, or other deal, with China.

According to the polls, pretty much 50 percent of Americans support him. Frankly, I’m amazed at that. Most of the rest of the world sees him as a joke, other than a few other right wing countries. I can only put it down to the cult he has built around himself which I have written about in the pages lately.

I’m looking forward to November five and fervently hoping Trump is handed his hat and leaves the room. 

He is a dangerous, low intellect right wing populist akin to many of the bad characters we have seen in power throughout history. 

I hope and pray the American public will make the same decision as they did in 2020 and reject this clown. He is clearly not fit to be a global player that potentially affects so many lives worldwide.

Including yours. 

Tinkierty Tonk....

Oh what a tangled web we weave

(中文版在下方）

“Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practise to deceive” is a line from a poem by early nineteenth century Scottish author, Sir Walter Scott. An aphorism that uses just a few words to describe a life experience so well that it has become a powerful idiom.

The premise is, when you tell a simple lie, it may become necessary to tell more complex lies, which eventually spiral out of control and ultimately lead to the exposure of the original deceit.

It would appear that Ko Wen-je is wading deeper into the mire of this trap with half-truths and deception, with his usual cavalier wave of a hand and a -- Who me? No this is all perfectly normal and besides, other people do it. -- 

It is the same-old slippery, gaslighting ex-mayor we have all learned to mistrust. 

Thank heaven he is not that bright, so was easily outmanoeuvred in his bid to become President. That unedifying episode was acutely embarrassing to watch. I still cringe at the way he publicly debased himself and appeared not to even realise how far out of his depth he was or just how spectacularly he had been outsmarted. 

It’s rare to witness such a fine display of ill-founded confidence in one’s own abilities, coupled with an utter lack of self-awareness and near zero political skills. It was like watching three grown men drowning a kitten.           

Now we have the entertaining spectacle of him and his family coming under increasing, and daily, scrutiny as journalists and others stir up the mud to find questionable episodes that require greater transparency, and, yes, ultimately the absolute truth. 

The tangled web for the TPP Chairman seems to be spiralling out of control and he really needs to address where the money came from for his TWD43 million ‘office’ or was it his own money. Does a surgeon really earn that much and can stump up that amount of cash for a place without needing a mortgage? If it is from party funds, why is it in his name? 

Even if his party constitution allows for this it seems odd that it is not illegal. I’m not a lawyer but it would surprise me if it is OK under the law.  

From whatever angle you look at this it is morally bankrupt in the extreme if party funds are involved in some way, regardless of the fact he may yet say he plans to sell it in the future and hand back every cent to the party. Always assuming the TPP even exists for much longer.

If it is his own money, why not just say so and put this all to rest as there would be no case to answer.  

In 2015 just one-year after becoming Taipei Mayor he told a reporter during an interview in a breathtaking display of hubris. “I was chosen by God to save Taiwan.” 

To actually articulate something so utterly absurd gives us at least some insight into what goes on in the addled brain of such people. Frankly, such unbalanced utterances should immediately deem them unfit for public office. Just spend a while reading history books and it’s easy to see where such a belief can take someone if they are handed the reins of power. 

It’s also easy to see how this kind of thinking can take someone when it comes to the more mundane areas of life like budgets and expenses when taking money from petty-cash to pay for hairdos and their morning coffee leads into deeper waters involving more money. -- Hey, I’m the chosen one, how can what I’m doing be wrong? 

This God-complex is certainly not uncommon among some of the more unbalanced of our politicians but it also seems to infect the workings of the grey-matter of people like billionaires and other people with power. A quick glance at some of them soon proves this to be the case.

That said, we notice it more because politicians can, and do, actually affect our daily lives and generally it is our money, in the form of taxes, that is at stake. It might be just a hairdo or a coffee for you but it is my money you are spending!   

Former United Kingdom Prime Minister (2019-2022) Boris Johnson is a case in point. Born with a silver spoon in his mouth and attending the most prestigious school and university he behaved like it was his right to attain the top job and he was clearly smarter than anyone around him. Ko Wen-je often indicates he thinks he is smarter than anyone else, in spite of the fact he is constantly proved wrong on this point. 

After a career in journalism then politics, Johnson’s lying got him sacked twice. His return to the political fray saw his time marred by accusations of lying including one of the most enduring lies during Brexit. Johnson put his name to the claim on the side of the Vote Leave campaign bus that “we send the European Union £350m a week” and the money could be used to “fund our NHS instead”.

This was shot down by the UK Statistics Authority who described it as “misleading”.

There were other examples of Johnson’s only loose association with the truth but the final nail in his political coffin was the so-called Partygate scandal. During several Covid lockdowns where the public was confined to their homes, parties took place at 10 Downing Street, its garden and other government and Conservative Party buildings. All in direct contravention of the laws passed by Johnson and his government. 

Johnson lied and said either there had been no parties, he was unaware of them, all the rules were followed etc. There was a spike in public anger over the then alleged parties fueled by a strong feeling there was one-rule-for-them-another-for-us.

Johnson resigned before the results of an inquiry into his behaviour was published but it is now officially on record that Johnson deliberately and repeatedly lied on the floor of the British Parliament about the parties at No.10.  

Most agree now that Johnson was never fit to be Prime Minister, just as Taiwan appears to have dodged a bullet with the TPP Chairman disappearing under the weight of his own lack of transparency. 

I guess it would take a psychologist to perhaps explain why their massive arrogance does not allow them to come clean, admit to mistakes and take the consequences. Lack of moral compass perhaps, a true belief that what they did was too minor, or a belief that they were so important and smart that the real truth would never be fully exposed. 

Or, as long as they keep lying, making excuses and avoiding the truth, the whole situation would somehow magically go away. 

The ‘tangled web’ they weave is only made worse if they go down this road, as, like Johnson discovered to his cost, it generally ends in a disaster which is likely far worse than if they had just come-clean in the first place. Johnson was popular with the voters and I personally believe he could have survived if he had been honest at the beginning - the British public would likely have forgiven him. 

His problem was, he was too used to lying…it had become a habit, and broadly speaking he had usually gotten away with it. 

Ko Wen-je seems to have very recently come to the conclusion that keeping his mouth shut is probably a good idea and has become notably quieter of late, leaving his house and scuttling to his car without saying a word. This is a wise move and may indicate he knows his position is no longer tenable and bluster, excuses and half-facts will no longer work. 

Is he preparing to come clean, or at least confront the myriad questions head-on?

Like Johnson, he appears to not have the skills and moral compass to sit comfortably in high office. I’m afraid there simply isn’t the room here to go into Donald Trump and all the shenanigans there. Although, remember it was only five years ago The Donald raised his hands and eyes to the sky telling a group of reporters “I am the chosen one”. 

In 2022 whilst still Taipei Mayor, Ko Wen-je described himself as a “Masterpiece”

With hubris oozing from every pore he told the presumably dumbfounded journalist. ”It is unlikely there will be another politician like me. Probably in 400-years there may be one” 

Well, at least let’s hope he was right about that!

Tinkerty Tonk

「哦我們編織了一個多麼糾結的網／當我們第一次練習欺騙」（Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive）

這是十九世紀初蘇格蘭作家史考特爵士（Sir Walter Scott）一首詩中的兩句。這句格言只用幾個字，就精確描述了一種生命經歷。當你說一個簡單的謊言，隨之而來需要編織更複雜的謊言來掩蓋，但最終必將失控，然後最初的欺瞞也會被揭露。

如今看來前台北市長、民眾黨主席柯文哲還在用半真半假的謊言和欺騙，讓自己陷入更深的泥淖，他繼續漫不經心的揮手比舞：我嗎？ 不，這完全正常，而且其他人也這樣做。

然而我們都已經學會了不信任這位狡猾、善於操縱煤氣燈效應的前市長。

謝天謝地，他並不那麼聰明，所以在總統大選中輕易被擊敗。他在公開場合的表現令人尷尬，但他甚至沒有意識到自己的膚淺，或者他的智商其實並不高。

他對自己毫無根據的自信，加上完全缺乏自我意識和近乎零的政治智慧，這是很少見的。去年選前的藍白合鬧劇，就像看著三個成年人淹死一隻小貓，面對侯友宜、朱立倫和馬英九，他毫無招架之力。

公私不分買豪宅不可思議

最近越來越多台灣人檢視他和他的家人，記者每天挖掘關於他的爭議事件，這一切都極具娛樂效果。人們需要的是更大的透明度，然後找出絕對的真相。

民眾黨主席錯綜複雜的謊言網似乎正在失控，例如他需要解釋他4300萬「個人辦公室」的資金來自哪裡。

如果那是他的私人財產，外科醫生真的能賺那麼多錢，並且可以在不需要貸款的情況下，花那麼多現金去買一間辦公室嗎？如果是政黨的資金，為什麼會是在他個人的名下？ 即使他的政黨黨章允許他用政黨的補助買私人房產，在我看來還是很奇怪。如果台灣法律允許，就一個外國人而言，我會感到很驚訝。

無論從哪個角度來看，把政黨資金放在私人名下都是道德破產，就算他可能會說他計劃在未來出售這個房產，並將每一分錢都歸還給政黨，那我們就得假設民眾黨能存在那麼久。如果是他自己的錢買個人辦公室，直接說出來就了事了，任何人都無話可說。

就任台北市長一年後，柯文哲在接受記者採訪時表現出令人驚嘆的傲慢態度，說自己是上天派來拯救台灣的人。

如此極端荒謬的發言，至少讓我們看清這些人混亂的大腦中到底在想什麼。坦白說，這種言論應該立即被視為不適合擔任任何公職。只要花一點時間閱讀歷史就很容易看出，這種人如果掌握了權力，會把自己帶到什麼不可思議的境界。

涉及生活中的平凡領域，例如認為從辦公室零用金拿錢來支付洗頭或是晨間咖啡的費用沒有問題，可想而知隨之而來會進入更深的水域、濫用更多的錢。但是他們想的是：我是天選之人，我做的事怎麼可能是錯的呢？這種上帝情結在心態不平衡的政客中並不罕見，也存在於億萬富翁和一些有權勢的人。

我們需要更注意政客因為他們可以影響我們的日常生活，而且我們的錢（以稅收的形式）也受到威脅。對這些政客來說可能只是洗個頭或是喝杯咖啡，但他們花的是我們的錢！

傲慢說謊政客終將被拆穿

看看外國的情況，英國前首相（2019-2022）強生（Boris Johnson）就是一個很好的例子。他含著金湯匙出生，就讀於最負盛名的中學和大學，他表現得好像獲得最高職位是他與生俱來的權利，而且他認為他比周圍的任何人都聰明。一如柯文哲經常表示自己比任何人都聰明，儘管事實不斷證明他在這一點上是錯的。

強生在擔任新聞記者後從政，因為謊言他曾兩度被解僱。重返政治戰場後，他並未就此誠實，最為人知的謊言發生在英國脫歐期間。強生在鼓吹脫歐巴士上的標語這麼說：「我們每周向歐盟匯出3.5億英鎊」，脫歐後這筆錢可以來「資助我們的國民醫療服務體系」。英國統計局駁斥了這一說法，並稱其「誤導」民眾。

還有其他一些例子證明，強生總是用半真半假的說法誤導民眾。他政治棺材上的最後一根釘子是派對門醜聞，在新冠疫情封城期間，民眾被限制在家中無法外出，但在唐寧街10號首相官邸、花園以及其他政府和保守黨大樓，官員卻舉行了數次派對。這些都直接違反了強生及其政府通過的法律。

強生翻來覆去的謊言包括沒有舉辦派對、他不知道有派對、他遵守所有封城規等等。民眾對派對的憤怒與日俱增，因為這種行為很明顯雙標：他們有一條規則，我們的規則是另一條。

強生在派對門調查結果公佈之前辭職，但現在正式記錄在案的是，強生在首相官邸開派對一事，多次對英國議會故意撒謊。

現在許多英國人都同意，強生自始至終根本不適合擔任首相。台灣似乎躲過一劫，民眾黨主席在他自己缺乏透明度的重壓下，可能會就此消失。

我想也許需要心理學家才能解釋，為什麼這種政客的傲慢不允許他們坦承錯誤並承擔後果。也許是缺乏道德指南針，他們真心相信他們犯的錯誤微不足道，或者他們深信自己是如此重要和聰明，以至於真相永遠不需要出現。

或者，他們相信只要繼續說謊、找藉口、迴避真相，不利的情況就會神奇地消失。

如果他們沿著這條路走下去，這面他們編織的錯綜複雜的網，只會變得更糟，就像強生的例子以災難結束，而如果一開始就坦白，情況也許不會那麼糟糕。

強生很受選民歡迎，我個人相信如果他一開始就誠實的話，他或許可以在政壇存活下來，因為英國民眾可能會原諒他。問題是他太習慣說謊了，這已經成為一種習慣，而且過去他通常都能僥倖逃脫。

柯文哲絕非天選之人

回到台灣，柯文哲最近似乎得出結論，發現閉嘴可能是個好主意，因此他明顯安靜許多，一言不發離開住家大樓快步走向車子。可能他知道自己的立場不再站得住腳，虛張聲勢、找尋藉口和半真半假將不再有效。但他在被檢調人員帶走問話前，仍然以天選之人的高傲之姿，慷慨激昂說自己完全沒有錯。

他是否準備坦白，或至少正面面對無數問題？但和強生一樣，他似乎不具備擔任高階職位的技能和道德準則。

關於天選之人，前美國總統川普（Donald Trump）五年前舉起雙手，眼睛望向天空，告訴一群記者「我是被選中的人」。就像在2022年，柯文哲在一次媒體訪問中稱自己是「傑作」。

這個每個毛細孔都洋溢著傲慢的人，對著這位大概目瞪口呆的記者說，以後不會再有像自己這種的政治人物，大概400年才出他一個。

好吧，至少讓我們希望他是對的，台灣不會再有這樣的政治人物。

You get the Government you deserve

 

The old saying that “Voters get the Government they deserve” is often cited during times of political turmoil or social unrest. It is variously attributed to the 18th century conservative French philosopher and diplomat Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821) and third U.S. President Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826).

Who stole it from the other given they both lived at almost exactly the same time is open to question!

The thuggery and fighting in Taiwan’s Parliament so soon after an election would seem to indicate that voters here have indeed got the government they deserve, if they desire closer links with China. 

The pro-unification KMT's almost immediate trip to kowtow to China would appear to suggest that in democratic Taiwan the majority of people wish to eventually come under rule from Beijing. Otherwise, why vote for these people?

There is no way of knowing, but it is not a stretch to believe deals were done there, particularly as the guys that went have returned emboldened to aggressively and thuggishly pervert democracy here. They are clearly determined to wrest control of parliament and attempt to weaken the new President.

I guess to such minds, forcing out democracy in favour of dictatorship makes perfect sense given their apparent intent is to engineer reunification with China. 

The fact these same voters opted for a DPP President who at his inauguration called on China to stop the threats and accept the existence of its democracy, is somewhat puzzling. 

The desire for change is a powerful emotion and is hard to reconcile with another powerful human emotion, that of the desire for stability and certainty. Both can lead to apparently irrational and counter-intuitive behaviour and generational issues come into play.  

It may explain younger people flocking to the TPP, as a new-way, and older people sticking with the familiar KMT they grew up with. Before the TPP split the KMT vote, the growing number of others who see the DPP as a good way forward has for years been undermining the KMT voter base. This is likely due to the demographic make-up of the population changing as older KMT voters drop out of the numbers.

 It is easy to argue that it is the desire for change that has slightly tipped it the KMT’s way and we may now be in for a period of pro-China policies being forced through with the help of a lap-dog TPP.  Ten's of thousands have  gathered outside parliament to protest the KMT’s action recently, which is a fair indication that feelings are running high.

To my mind, reinforcing the idea the KMT trip to China was to cut some kind of deal is the fact China decided to stage war games around Taiwan last Friday, the very day of a big pro-democracy protest outside parliament. Their hatred of democracy is clear, and it is clearly supported by the KMT.  

It would be really interesting to know exactly what the deal was and how the guys who went are going to benefit? It’s all too much of a coincidence.   

If you voted KMT or TPP it is fair to assume you support them in their current actions, should not be surprised at what is happening in parliament right now, and you personally support closer ties with China. 

Does the vast majority of those who voted for the KMT or TPP want that, of course they do not? The trouble is, they have got the government they deserved. I hope they all won’t be too disappointed if it all goes horribly wrong for them on a personal level. 

Voting for the wrong people can certainly get you into trouble, although many appear to think that their ‘one little vote’ makes no difference in the grand scheme of things. They either don’t vote at all, pay scant attention to the issues, don’t read the news or just tend to believe what they read in politically biased media or the lies and misdirection of the politicians themselves. 

Which is sad, and is pretty much the cause of what you are seeing unfold in the Taiwan parliament now. That would be - barefaced turncoats with no moral compass - rejected and unseated politicians who are now by some miracle in positions of power - and an ex-convict who is now an MP.  

So have the voters in Taiwan made a blunder? Probably not, because this kind of thing happens all the time, and fortunately most democratic systems can undo damage after a few years by booting parties out if they are not happy with them. Laws can be reversed and in a democracy there is seldom enough time to do anything that can’t be reversed between elections. So voters have a safety net. 

The major problem for Taiwan is China, so the safety net most countries have is far more fragile here. If the current group of screwballs attempting to usurp proper parliamentary procedure are able to make changes allowing China to gain a foothold here, it would be extremely bad news for us all. Other countries do not have this kind of overriding issue.    

No political party is perfect, so voting for change for the sake of change is not a total risk, although I would question the motivation of some TPP voters who say they like the Chairman because he is “quirky and funny.” 

I’m guessing China now has new puppets planted in Taiwan’s political arena to champion their cause, the ex-mayor has been dumped because of his abject failure to make any mark during the Presidential election. Subsequently the TPP will wither and die.   

That said, there is always the risk of short-term damage if voters are hoodwinked into believing dishonest politicians by the media or by the politicians themselves. Of course, my example is going to be the poor land of my birth the, not so, United Kingdom. 

The ruling Conservative Party won a landslide victory and a large parliamentary majority in 2019 on the basis of then leader Boris Johnson’s promise to “Get Brexit Done” amid a plethora of lies about the benefits of such a move.

Sadly for the voters who swallowed the lies, the desolate landscape beyond Brexit has proved to be a massive disappointment. In surveys since 2022, the share of the population who regret Brexit has consistently been above 50 percent.

Which is why, less than five years later the Conservatives are 20 points behind opposition Labour and it is now certain they face a major drubbing in this year’s general election. Pundits are forecasting they may even become the third party, ending decades of a broadly two party choice as to who runs the country. The outcome of the July 4 election will be a disaster for the Conservatives. 

The new Labour government will likely then get to work undoing much of what the Conservatives did, particularly with regard to Brexit. My forecast is they will reforge Britians’ relationship with the European Union and try to set right other serious issues like public funding of the health service, education, prisons, infrastructure etc.

I’ll not go into the rest of Britain’s acute social, economic and funding problems but needless to say they are myriad. 

But I would point out that a single issue, like Taiwan’s with China, is one that has the potential to destroy a political party quickly. The KMT and TPP would be wise to bear this in mind and look outside their small bubble for some hints when it comes to conducting a wise and thoughtful administration. Not the thuggish and crazed techniques they seem to have setted on for the short term. 

They need to remember, the people have the final say and they do not. So crazed tantrums and fights in parliament have only a short shelf life. As the madness during the Trump post election insanity proved with the invasion of Capitol Hill, subsequent killings and hundreds of arrests in the United States. It failed. 

More mature democracies suffer from similar issues of inconsistent, wild and incoherent government. Taiwan is not alone in that regard. My hope is Taiwan learns from these other more mature democracies and takes note of their mistakes. 

But as I have often quoted in this publication. We never learn from history, muchless from other people. 

Tinkerty Tonk...

Kate and the dodgy photo...Brits still love her

Kate-Gate and the dodgy photo lays bare Britain’s social divide - but everyone still loves her

The Brits are a funny lot. They love moaning and ranting about their lot in life, not least the way the government runs the country, the cost of living and the degradation of the national health service. 

Yet they still have a deep and abiding love affair with the Royal Family. 

I still fail to fully understand the mindset of the land of my birth which continues to revere a family of misfits as much as it does. (fully disclosure - I have not lived or worked in the UK since I left nearly 30-years ago)

The recent stupidity of Buckingham Palace to publish a clearly photoshopped photo of Kate & Kids, which the world’s four main picture agencies quickly withdrew, was staggeringly inept given they have a small army of public relations people cleaning up after them on a 24/7 basis.

What were they thinking and just how asleep at the wheel was the Royal Families’ massive and tax funded public relations team when it was published? I wonder how many heads rolled over this? Particularly when you read about past UK heads of state, not that long ago who chopped off head with abandon, like Elisabeth I and Henry the Eighth.  

To put it in context, British taxpayers fork out around GBP 90 million a year from their hard-earned wages for this ‘service’ and be ruled over by a bunch of people who can’t even publish a family photo without screwing it up. 

At the same time as Kate is getting world class treatment, the National Health Service for ordinary people in the UK is on its knees and struggling to keep up with demand. Believe me, the public health service here in Taiwan is substantially better than in the UK.   

Is it arrogance or stupidity, or a bit of both? From my own centre-left standpoint, I’d say it’s a bit of both as in no way can you describe the United Kingdom as a classless society. In fact, if you Google  <is britain a classless society?> the top hit is  Wikipedia saying “The social structure of the United Kingdom has historically been highly influenced by the concept of social class, which continues to affect British society today.”

So there you have it. While no self-respecting journalist would ever use Wikipedia as a solid source, it makes the point that for all its boasts of equality, diversity and fairness, Britain is still a country in the grip of a deferential class structure where the upper echelons continue to rule the roost. The mystifying thing is, Mr Ordinary and Family seem to love them for it. 

I guess it is clear by now that I’m no fan of the Royal Family, or having King Charles sign off on any law the democratically elected parliament decides to make on behalf of the voting public. Nevertheless, this unelected, born into the job - I’m struggling for the right word here but let’s go with guffin - actually gets to sign off on any law the people of Britain are forced to abide by. 

If this all sounds stupid, it is.

Why let a family of privileged upper-class twerps who have never done a day’s work in their lives sign off on your laws you have to abide by?  

Consider the alternatives, like a President as head of state.

Now things get serious as a presidency can breed dictators. Putin a bit further west and further west Trump who is an embryo dictator if every I saw one,  should the American public be dumb enough to elect him again. To put this in context a Google search of <dictators> returns with Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, and Tojo. Four guys who did their level best to destroy the planet and in doing so, killed hundreds of millions of people. 

Talk of dictators may sound extreme eighty years on from World War II as the carnage of that drops out of living memory as our surviving war heros succumb to peaceful old age and death. But we are currently living in a world where similar madmen could soon be influencing our lives.

The lunacy of the right-wing in the UK and Europe with its anti-foreigner, anti-immigration agenda, to the outright unbalanced Trump supporters who apparently trust a proven corrupt criminal to run the most powerful country on the planet beggars belief. I’m still amazed I still meet supposedly intelligent Taiwanese people who think Trump would defend Taiwan. Of course he would not and would roll over to Xi if it suited him.  

A reminder from Fox News -  Speaking to US Fox News, Trump described Xi as an exceptionally intelligent individual who governs China’s population of 1.4 billion people with “iron” authority.

“Think of President Xi. Central casting, brilliant guy. You know, when I say he’s brilliant, everyone says, ‘Oh that’s terrible',” said Trump. “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.”

During his four years in the White House, Trump was also known for praising such leaders as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while largely reserving scorn for the US’ traditional allies such as the French and Canadian leaders. 

This is why I get so depressed when I hear Taiwanese supporting this fraud on the simplistic assumption he would stand up to Xi over Taiwan simply because he called China out on trade. 

Without going into the gory details of past Presidential dictators, or current ones - a full list here - https://planetrulers.com/current-dictators/

It is clear no political system is perfect as presidents go bad, just as often as other heads of state have gone bad over history. 

For Taiwan, a President the people were smart enough to elect who come from a poor background and is the son of a coal miner puts the country in good hands for the time being. I was worried for a while when other candidates with clear dictator-like tendencies were in the running but the bulk of fair minded and sensible people chose the right individual. 

Which gets us back to the dimwits who make up the Royal Family in the United Kingdom.

I’d much prefer a jug-eared upper class twerp who barely knows what he’s doing signing off on laws set by an elected government than a known dictator, like the one next door.

Tinkerty tonk...

Morally bankrupt - the nastiness within Taiwan politics laid bare

"Values are like fingerprints. Nobody's are the same but you leave them all over everything you do." Elvis Presley.

Politics has always been a dirty game, but at least there are shreds of decency, a certain level of moral standards, and red lines that most intelligent and mentally functional politicians and commentators won’t step over.

If you can’t carry your argument without resorting to the moral gutter, you are unfit to be a politician, let alone a mere social-media slave commentator only really interested in clicks and views.   

That said, the latest furore over Wang Zhi-an’s comments on The Night Show about Chen Jun-han Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) had taken the bar even lower to the disgust of any right thinking people. 

It is the equivalent of throwing paint over someone on a train to get a reaction and clicks and views. YouTube is full of this kind of childish stupidity which reduces us all to the level unfit to compare to our planet's animals.     

Wang’s assertion Chen was only rolled out by the DPP to win the sympathy vote is as naive as it is ridiculous and to add the insult of a fit person mimicking someone with involuntary muscle spasms in front of a television audience demonstrates a mind devoid of decency and an individual who is morally bankrupt.     

I guess to Wang, Stephen Hawking, one of the greatest theoretical physicists of our generation deserves similar ridicule, or wheelchair bound US 26th President Teddy Roosevelt despite his Nobel Prize and other achievements. Hawking had late onset Motor Neurone Disease and Roosevelt late onset Poliomyelitis. But Wang seems fine to ridicule such people despite him being only an upstart with a tiny internet voice. 

The comparison is indeed, stark. 

If ridiculing those stricken with disease gives some kind of perverse pleasure and makes you happy then I hope you sleep soundly at night, but please don't act surprised when those with higher morals decry you and point out that you are a disgusting human being not to be taken seriously.

Those outraged by Wang’s antics are more in tune with Western thinking. Talk that The Night Show is ‘American style’ as wide of the mark as it is possible to be. Subtile and humorous satire it certainly is not and making fun of someone’s physical disability would be roundly attacked by all in places like the US and the UK. 

Please make no mistake, if Wang says this is how it is in the west he is lying and just doesn’t understand despite having lived there. The young man is either a dimwit, or, more likely, simply being outrageous for attention. Personally, I think it is a bit of both.      

Wang’s behaviour is simply to gain attention and clicks and views just as internet pranksters are forced to do. It’s pathetic and sad they simply don’t have the intellect to gain an audience via good argument.  

But more depressing is the fact that quite a few, and young people at that, are saying there was nothing wrong with what he said and did. 

I can just about understand that someone desperate for clicks and views can stoop so low to gain notoriety as they aren’t smart enough to do it any other way. But for others to support such exploits is a sad statement on how society is, and indicates the erosion of morals in the people around you on this island.

Taiwan cannot allow this kind of disgusting behaviour to pass unnoticed and I’m glad it has become headline news. The TPP supporters posting messages saying all this OK are misguided, and will rightly be proved wrong by the majority voice of right minded people.

They are also showing themselves up for what they really are. Unfeeling, unsympathetic, ignorant hangers on to what is - to all intents and purposes - a cult. Their comments show them for what they are. Slavish drones unable to think or analyse things for themselves. It’s sad. 

Wang is Chinese. So his behaviour is no real surprise as his brain has been thoroughly washed. China’s young have no faith and no respect for others built into their psyche from birth. I lived in India for six years before living in China for four years and the major difference between the two is the lack of faith in China. Indians grow up to respect other people, from my observations Chinese children grow up thinking they are Princes and Princesses and behave accordingly.

Wang is a classic example of such an offspring. Zero humility, massive ego.  

The mainlander Wang is such a child. He is a clicks and views kid, devoid of critical thinking skills and is only seeking notoriety. He is insignificant and after this, we will never hear from him again despite his swaggering about getting a Japanese or US passport. 

The worrying thing is people here are supporting his views and I’m concerned that others are being influenced by this evil and click-based fool. They are clearly not smart enough to know they are being played. 

I would encourage all those who waded in on social media to reflect how they would feel if their brother, sister, mother, father, uncle, auntie, grandad or grandma were similarly disabled? How would they feel if someone went on national television and made fun of them and everyone laughed along?

A final word about the unprofessionalism of the presenters. Guys, listen to what you guests say and don’t just laugh along with them like unthinking robots. Run your interviews, take control, and most importantly, listen to what people say and do. Clapping like a bunch of seals seeking fish at feeding time is a poor look and you really need to learn your trade. 

This is the vile side of politics and creeping degradation of decency is a slippery slope. Shrug off making fun of disabled people today, tomorrow you may see the wholesale hatred of other sections of society. 

This is a worrying reminder of how common decency can fall out of society under the direction of politicians seeking more influence and power. Read the history books and it’s easy to find out what happens... if this happens.  

A slippery slope, the thin end of the wedge, call it what you will…please God, Taiwan does not go down this route. 

Tinkerty Tonk...

 

BFF - Taiwan 💕 United States

So here we all are with an election result which, as most headlines around the world put it - was a rebuff to China - and by any relevant measure was a convincing demonstration the vast bulk of the Taiwanese people want to avoid getting any closer to China they already are. 

It is clear, even to this foreigner, that the KMT and TPP are China friendly, while the DPP policy is one of guarded engagement, the status-quo and, while not wanting to mention the dreaded ‘I’ word, a country at ease with itself with its democracy of elected rulers and officials, its own laws, its own economy, army, police force, economy, education and health system. 

All institutions that would surely bleed away under Chinese rule as we are currently witnessing with Hong Kong. Not to mention the total loss of freedom-of-speech. 

The DPP loss of overall control of the legislature does carry some dangers if both the KMT and TPP move to attempt to get closer to China against the DDP’s and the new President's basic policies.

But after the unedifying farce of their pre-election attempts to share the Presidency, it would appear there is little likelihood either of them will be able to hone their negotiating skills enough to ever agree on anything of much importance. 

The ex-Taipei mayor’s almost cartoonish glum face splashed across front-pages when the talks collapsed, aptly demonstrated that his ego is way more important to him than policy making. One can only hope their embarrassing squabbles will continue and any madness about getting closer to China will fade as they chest-bump each other like Saturday night drunks in a seedy bar. 

The leader of the KMT and his pleasant but vacant grin didn’t seem to know quite what was happening throughout the entire process and clearly had former KMT President Ma’s hand stuck up his back like a ventriloquist's dummy. 

While the loss of the majority is certainly an issue for the DPP and is certainly a barrier to policy-making, many countries are in the same boat in terms of legislative majorities and get on with things perfectly well, although at a generally slower rate.

The outlying wings of any political party can step in at any time to scupper government initiatives, even if parliamentary votes are whipped. Evidence of this is unfolding before our very eyes with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak completely failing to control his party as the right-wing rebels over an immigration bill. And that is with a large majority without the need to work with a third party. Note the Conservative initial 80-seat majority has been hacked back by by-elections after scandals and resignations.  

So it’s not the end of the world, and I would be quietly confident that if the KMT and TPP band together to try and do something mad like cutting back on defence spending - as we all know some in their ranks would like to do - there would be rebels in their ranks who would defy the whip. That, together with an accompanying public outcry would likely prevent anything stupid happening with regards to China. 

I’m still struggling to come to terms with the fact that one KMT legislator tried to sabotage the launch of Taiwan’s first Hai Kun Class submarine by leaking information about it. In many countries that would be classed as an act of treason.

So madness and stupidity aside, the importance of William Lai’s win, lies more with Taiwan’s diplomatic standing in the world and mainly its continued good relationship with the United States. Of the three candidates he is clearly the best choice to get out there and argue Taiwan’s case around the world and glad-hand its allies.  

The US reaction to his victory was an almost immediate trip by a high-level delegation of former top officials who arrived the following day, and just as immediately testing China’s reaction to the election result. Try to persuade me this was a coincidence or that the trip had not been planned months ago in the event of a Lai victory. 

To this end, Lai’s new job puts him at the forefront of keeping the US on-side and building the diplomatic relationship with its key long-time ally. As Chinese jets overfly Taiwan on a daily basis, their warships test the waters around and thousands of missiles are aimed at you and I, what could be more important than the one country which would step in and help if China goes as crazy as Russia’s President Putin did with Ukraine. 

All that said, it can be hard to like America. It can be brash, crass and selfishly capitalist. It can be self-centred, inward-looking, wilfully difficult and, at times, downright idiotic. 

On top of its existing flawed genetics, the world is currently looking on with amazement at the legal shenanigans surrounding the former president and the apparent madness of some of its political figures whose lies and behaviour, not to put too fine a point on it, is also criminal.

In 1939, soon to be British Prime Minister Winston Churchill described Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" during a radio address on the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. It was a metaphorical shrug of the shoulders of puzzlement about a country’s behaviour and actions.

The United States is the same. It is so full of contradictions and currently so volatile politically that it is hard to understand, muchless predict, its behaviour. That said, recent events should, in themselves, be enough to lend weight to the argument that the Good Ole U S of A should be seen as Taiwan’s main hope of salvation. 

There have been two recent announcements which seem to have passed Taiwan media editorial meetings un-noticed. No surprise there, I guess. 

The first was just before Christmas when the US announced it was, as the CNN headline put it “US Air Force to reclaim Pacific airfield that launched atomic bombings as it looks to counter China.” 

This is a significant move and has not had the publicity in Taiwan it deserved. The Pacific airfield they are looking to Air Force is looking to reclaim is on Tinian which is part of the North Mariana Islands which is around 200 kilometres north-east of Guam and 2,760 south-east of where I’m currently sitting by the Tamsui River.   

It is a place out of memory but nevertheless highly significant historically. Those of you with Google Earth can see what it looks like now but in its heyday it was deemed to be the busiest airport in the world - well, there was a war on. Tinian served as the forward operating base in the Pacific and from where it made relentless attacks on the Philippines, Okinawa, and mainland Japan. It was reported the ground literally shook as planes took off every minute of every day. 

It is also notable as the place where America’s B-29 Superfortress bomber Enola Gay and three days later Bockscar took off from to drop the Little Boy (17 Kilotons) and Fat Man (21 Kilotons) nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A Kiloton is a unit of explosive power equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT. This attack ended World War II so Tinian has a significant place in history. 

While its runways are now overgrown with the relentless jungle, the US Air Force plans to spend millions making the airbase operational again. It is worth noting that Taiwan lies around the same distance from Tinian as Japan does so is most certainly within its operational parameters. It is the perfect place for the US to step in and protect Taiwan from the air.

Also, just before Christmas U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law a record-breaking US$886 billion defence policy package which included measures to counter Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific region and assist Taiwanese forces.

Globally, China has the second biggest defence spending below the US but it is around a third of the size at around $300 billion. Their military machine is also likely to be far less sophisticated than the US, just as Russia’s military machine proved to be far less effective than a lot of people thought before Ukraine. Remember the predictions after the Ukraine invasion that it would all be over in a week and here we are nearly two years later?

The likely poor state of China’s military seems to be borne out by Xi’s recent purge of corrupt generals following shortfalls in the quality of army equipment including missiles. Bloomberg has a good story about this under the headline - US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army - if you want to look it up.    

Meanwhile Japan, historically constrained by its pacifist constitution adopted after surrendering in WWII, is now embarking on a record military expansion and on the same day approved a 16 percent increase in military spending for 2024 to US$56 billion. So Taiwan’s allies are moving in the right direction in any potential defence of the island.

Taiwan is anyway a difficult country to invade from the sea because of its largely rocky coastline, supply lines would be long and difficult to maintain and the only real alternatives are parachute troops or bombing, both extremely risky strategies militarily and diplomatically. 

Add to that the fact that the world would likely react extremely negatively and impose strong sanctions on China in the event of an armed invasion, just as they did on Russia with Ukraine. With the South China Sea dispute an invasion would trigger a wave of unrest across Asia and only serve to isolate China even further and engender a pretty much global wave of hatred towards it. 

I see the likelihood of a military invasion by China as extremely remote.

The one person who might actually scupper any defence of Taiwan by the US could be a man who has proven himself to be an untrustworthy liar and false friend, Donald Trump. The Washington Post says it tracked Trump's false or misleading claims at 30,573 over 4 years. He faces four criminal indictments, two on state charges and two on federal charges. These indictments amount to a total of 91 felony charges.

It’s ironic this is the very man some Taiwanese I meet think he will somehow become the saviour of Taiwan if he regains the presidency. This thinking is fundamentally flawed and seems to be only based on the simplistic notion that because Trump stood up to China more publicly and more aggressively than previous administrations he will obviously pull out all the stops over Taiwan. 

These people could not be more wrong. The current US administration is being tough on China by spending vast sums beefing up the US Pacific military presence and committing to maintaining peace in the Pacific.

Trump also loves Xi and admires him hugely. He described Xi as an exceptionally intelligent individual who governs China’s population with “iron” authority. “Think of President Xi. Central casting, brilliant guy. You know, when I say he’s brilliant, everyone says, ‘Oh that’s terrible',” said Trump. “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.” 

These are the rantings of, I’m sorry to say, an unstable and untrustworthy man and Trump has proved he is happy to push his old friends, allies, lawyers and employees under a bus if it suits him. I would argue he is probably more likely to come down on the side of Xi in a Taiwan invasion scenario, rather than a different president who most likely continues on the current path of putting in place expensive initiatives to keep China at bay in the Pacific.

As president, this man would again be Commander-in-Chief of the military. It really doesn’t bear thinking about if the chips were down with Xi, who he appears to love so much, quite what this unbalanced individual would do. 

If you live in Taiwan you really need to hope Trump is not successful in his current bid to regain the White House. He is way more likely to pull the US away from the Pacific and Taiwan as part of his America First policy. Anyone who thinks the opposite is deluding themselves, or at least gambling on the fact that Trump really has the intellectual capacity to deal with an invasion in a way that would result in anything other than making himself look good.     

Winnie the Pooh once said “A day without a friend is like a pot without a single drop of honey left inside." 

The United States is Taiwan’s pot of honey. I hope we don’t lose the last drop.  

Tinkerty Tonk...      

五漢廢言後的群組對話流出