The results of the Big Recall last weekend sends a strong message to the rest of the world that the island’s people are happy to see closer ties between Taiwan and China.
The landslide victory for pro-China members of parliament, meaning they still have a slim coalition majority in the legislature, basically tells the foreign media, politicians and diplomats that the people of Taiwan want to be closer to the mainland.
Also, they would
likely be more than happy with a Hong Kong style of living under Beijing rule.
Remembering of course the Hong Kong handover was brokered by the British which,
ironically, is seen as the beacon of democracy.
Look at Hong Kong now.
The headlines are telling. Many major overseas news outlets lead by linking the pro-China stance of these MPs to the outcome of the recall.
BBC - 'Pro-China' politicians survive Taiwan vote to kick them out.
Associated Press - Taiwan votes to decide whether
to oust lawmakers from China-friendly party in closely watched poll.
New York Times -Taiwan President’s Gambit: Time for a
Tougher Stance on China.
Washington Post - Voters in Taiwan reject bid to oust
China-friendly lawmakers in closely watched poll.
ABC Australia - 'Hostile China will be very
pleased': Taiwan politics in crisis.
CNN - Taiwan is paralyzed by political
gridlock. A mass recall of ‘pro-China’ lawmakers could break that.
I’m sure there are many at home who will tap their nose wisely and say “Ah, but they are foreign media, they don’t understand.” If I had USD100 for every time someone has told me that from the UK, to Japan, to China to India, I could go on, I’d be a rich man. It is naive, parochial and simply lacks a broader outlook.
Perception is a powerful thing and to underestimate it is extremely dangerous. Politicians often act on media perception, diplomats less so, but diplomats have to convince politicians. It can be, if I can put it this way - an unvirtuous circle.
It is equally dangerous to believe that somehow Taiwan is different because of its recent turbulent history with China and Japan, or that it is in some way special. Taiwan is a small island of just 23 million people and the only thing it has going for it on the world stage is semi-conductors.
It is not a giant oil producer which the likes of the US rely on for economic survival, evidence of past Middle East conflicts, and is worth going to war over. Taiwan is not in the same league.
TSMC will save us?
While hugely important to the world, Taiwan’s TSMC will not in itself save the country from China and as time goes on and C. C. Wei cuddles up to the United States with promises of billions of dollars worth of investment, the island’s grip on this premium will diminish.
Wei has promised to increase investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. by $100 billion with three new fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center.
It’s too easy to explain away KMT support with fear, and a chain of thought that if you don’t upset China they will forget they want to take physical and political control of Taiwan. Which takes us back to the word - naive.
For an island constantly over-flown with fully armed Chinese fighter jets, its surrounding seas patrolled by the PLA Navy and a constant stream of bellicose comments by countless generals of imminent invasion, it would seem desperately naive to think they do not mean business.
Earlier this year China’s defense ministry spokesperson told Taiwan “We will come and get you, sooner or later”. Oh yes, that means they are happy to keep the status quo?
Bear in mind that no western power regularly makes any comment about these daily direct threats to Taiwan’s sovereignty. Direct criticism of China’s bullying is brutally absent on the world stage in any way that keeps pace with the regularity of the fighter jet incursions. No one really cares.
Is it fear of a military invasion which worries people into voting for the KMT in a belief that sops engineered by the KMT to help Chinese wives, or give concessions to healthcare for Chinese families? If that is the thinking, we come back to the word, naive.
My fear for Taiwan is that it is a democracy. Overseas democracies could well be thinking…’Well, if they are voting for the KMT they clearly want closer ties with China, why should we bother even thinking about defending them in the future?” Particularly if their semiconductor trump card becomes weaker.
All Taiwan’s potential friends and allies in the world have gigantic domestic budget problems which they can’t cope with now. If their politicians start to think Taiwan’s solid democracy is actually voting to be closer to China, then that is what their people want. It’s a fine excuse not to budget for a fight with China.
On top of which all China’s potential friends have huge financial interest in remaining friends with China. Trump is in the White House for the time being and his Make America Great Again would take precedence over helping tiny Taiwan defend itself from the mainland. That much must be clear to any Taiwan voter. Germany, France and Britain are the same.
The polls and the status quo
A University I used to teach at, National Chengchi University (NCCU), produces an excellent poll called The Changes in Unification - Independence Stances of Taiwanese. A better title would be Independence vs Beijing rule but it illustrates well the change in attitude of Taiwan voters.
When you look at the 1994 to current trends, the most noticeable was in 2018 when the DDP bombed in the local council elections. This was seen at the time as a vote of no confidence in President Tsai Ing-wen administration, both because of relations with China as well as economics and social issues like pollution, labor laws and wages. The change in the poll is quite striking if you look at the chart.
The feeling that Taiwan should ‘maintain the status quo but move towards independence’ and ‘maintain the status quo indefinitely’ both jumped. While the hitherto highest polling category ‘maintain the status quo and decide at a later date’ collapsed. The other polling questions are not statistically relevant.
The point is the chart now shows overwhelmingly that voters say their wish is for the status quo to be continued indefinitely. This would appear to be a fine expectation, peace in our time. (European history buffs would know what I am referring to here, search Neville Chamberlain).
Which brings me back to the word naive. Expecting the mainland to just stop it and allow things to carry on as they are is ridiculous, they have already invested too much in their power plays and belligerence. They are unhappy with the status quo, the fact that voters are happy with it, is irrelevant.
Unless the Democratic People’s Party (DDP) stops their soft acceptance of lies, gaslighting and deception it will likely continue to carry public opinion.
One has to wonder how many of the pro-KMT votes were based on the money promised to voters in the form of a free government handout. To those voters who went to the polls with that in mind, please think more carefully about what your future may look like under Beijing. Who are not known to give money away to ordinary people.
Nine-in-One Elections
Next year sees the local council elections which are more important than many people think. In the above example we can see how the local elections changed political sentiment in Taiwan in 2018. These elections in 2026 could well be a similar turning point and the DPP obviously knows this, how could they not? After the recall embarrassment, the question is will they take action?
Subnational elections can seem unimportant but in Taiwan the way the city to city relationships via the parties feeds up to the central government is seldom noticed by the central government. It explains why local council elections in many countries are largely ignored by voters but actually have a large impact on central government.
The trips by some of the newly elected MPs to China underscore this. Their influence on the central government is substantial. The so-called Hualian-King being a case in point. Their influence via local temples is huge and feeds through to the higher authorities in Taipei. Since their defeat in late 1949 the Kuomintang has had huge power in this particular local base.
In any battle, an attack is quite often met with a counter-attack. The DPP generally doesn't do this, or their response is weak and ineffective. Taking the moral high-ground it all very well but it’s not working for the DPP politically. They are clearly losing the fight and if they fail, Taiwan will become the next Hong Kong. Just another notch on the bedpost for the mainland.
Tinkerty Tonk
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