Financial Markets - Never try to catch a falling knife

A large chunk of my over 40-year journalistic career was spent covering economics and financial markets. It was my job to talk to those in the field, from foreign-exchange, stock and bond traders, to top bank economists and strategists. With political economists thrown in.

What follows are purely observations of the dynamic of the stock market crashes I have witnessed and reported on, together with what I currently teach at Universities here in Taipei  and elsewhere, in terms of understanding financial market structure. 

This is not investment advice. Merely my observations of past market volatility I have witnessed and covered first hand, and some investments that were obvious at the time, and some that were pushed by banks and others that did not turn out for the best.  

WHERE DOES THE MONEY SIT

Let’s first understand the dynamic of financial markets in terms of professional vs retail investors. 

I, like many of you reading this, are retail investors. We are not sophisticated, we mostly buy or hold with a view/hope, prices will rise. Retail investors’ share of total trading volume rose from just above 10% in 2011 to over 22% in 2021, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

But the wider picture of your money in the market then extends to your pension fund, your savings in the bank, your bank deposit or any other stavings you keep with an institution. It’s your money. Never lose sight of the fact that market stories, volatility, crashes and rallies are all happening on the back of your money and affect your personal wealth in some way.

Like it or not, we are all involved, and affected by, the political ‘game’ that is playing out globally at the moment, driven by the orange chap in the White House. The reality is retail investors like yourselves have pretty much zero control over what is affecting your money. Unless you decide to trade in or out of volatile markets on a daily basis with the spare money you have and accept the huge danger that involves. 

DUMB MONEY VS SMART MONEY

The first thing to understand about sharp market movements, either up or down, is that professional investors have a huge advantage over the vast majority of retail investors.

By and large, retail investors buy and hold on the hope of a rise in price before they sell to realise their profit. Professional investors, with access to more sophisticated financial instruments can play two sides of the market by selling assets they don’t own with a view to covering that ‘short’ position at a cheaper price later - and pocket the difference. 

This dynamic is a long standing and somewhat depressing one whereby retail investors who only trade with one weapon, that of going long, are fighting professionals who have two weapons - going long and short. Most retail investors try to fight the market with one hand tied behind their backs as they don’t have the sophistication, or ability, to short the market in a downturn.

During less volatile times retail investors are not privy to high level data and market information, much less risk analysis, or even basic or technical analysis of market conditions.  

This is why financial markets tend to have a saw-tooth pattern as retail investors buy-in during good times to push the market higher slowly over time. Then, when something bad happens, the professionals aggressively go short to rip that accumulated wealth out of the market. The sad reality is the flow of money is from retail to professional investors and it happens over and over again when markets top out, for whatever reason. 

Make no mistake. Banks and professional investors will have made billions from the lastest downturn in global markets. The losers will be retail investors, pension funds and the personal wealth of individuals, whose investments are not nimble or sophisticated enough to cash in and take advantage of the sharp and savage downturn. 

THE ANATOMY OF A BULL MARKET 

It is no surprise that financial markets fluctuations, much like life itself, happen in cycles. Gross Domestic Product, ie. The value a nation creates broadly follows an upward trend over time as long as a government is doing its job and creating conditions whereby the people can enrich themselves and improve their standard of living.

Stock markets follow this as, obviously, companies linked to an economy will become more profitable on the back of economic growth. This is when ordinary people buy into stock markets as a means to further enrich themselves, whether through equity funds, pension plans or via direct investment by purchasing shares in a particular company.

When conditions are right, professional investors, I mean the big banks, and institutional investors all start to advise their clients to buy. Using themselves as the brokers to the deals, of course and charging a fee. There are free services but they just sting you on the spread of the asset you are buying or selling, which makes up their commission. It’s not ‘free’. 

Once these big investors are satisfied and fully invested, the professionals will allow their research into the open market which is when you will start to see newspaper articles saying this, or that, is a good buy. This is when retail investors jump in to buy the last part of the rally. 

The last part of any asset market rally is typified by the high level of retail investor interest. They are all getting in once the professional players are fully invested. It’s the icing on the cake for professional investors who are ready to rip money away from a bull market by dealing fast in the spot market or using futures or options to aggressively short. 

I’m going back years, but there was an off-quoted rule of thumb in Hong Kong about the market which went…”When you land at Kai Tak and your cab driver on the way into town tells you to buy the market, or a particular stock…the first thing you do when you get to the office is to sell it.”

It is also well to remember that stock markets only continue to rise if there is money flowing into them. They don’t rise by magic without fresh liquidity. Once a market is full of money, it will stop rising and correct. Huge buying by individuals is usually the last gasp of this liquidy. 

PAST MARKET CRASHES

The first stock market crash I covered was the 1987 collapse. From 1986 there was a powerful bull market that started in the summer of 1982 which soared following the so-called Big Bang which was the sudden deregulation of financial markets. This bull market was fueled by hostile takeovers, leveraged buyouts and merger mania. Companies were scrambling to raise capital to buy each other out.

The panic to get out was typified by the inability of investors to sell because systems were jammed and some countries closed their markets to try and prevent more selling. There were cases of brokers being shot by frustrated investors who were unable to escape the carnage. 

It was a similar situation in 1997 when the massive bull market created by the Tiger Economies of Asia fell apart, mainly because governments relied on fixed exchange rates which did not allow for the economic pressure they created to dissipate and in July 1997 the whole thing fell apart and millions were thrown into poverty.

The over-promise of the internet in 2000 created a huge bubble in tech stocks with venture capital pouring in to find websites that never had any chance of making money. I sold a tech-fund I had after it made a 137pct profit over about a year, in December of 1999. My broker told me I was mad for selling it and I should stay invested.

After the massive fall in 2000 when the internet market bubble burst the tech-heavy NASDAQ index fell from around 5,000 to around 1,400. It didn’t recover back to 5,000 until around 2015.

I clearly remember some market analysts were urging people to buy at the lower levels as the market ws a ‘bargain’ but it never really recovered and the index languished for years. I daresay you have heard ‘experts’ telling investors to buy into this latest orange inspired crash. 

This is where the old market wisdom of ‘Never try and catch a falling knife’ comes from.   

I see echoes of this over-promise now with AI and the billions being poured into it, likewise crypto, but that’s something for another story.  

Smart investors never try to catch the very top, or bottom, of any market. If you catch the bulk of a market run you are doing well and missing out on the last 10 pct of a move is the wise thing to do. Any professional investor or trader will tell you there is no such thing as bad profit.

Trying to call a top or a bottom exactly is a fool’s errand and often leads to disaster. Never forget that financial markets run on fear and greed. Take those emotions out of your personal investments and you will do well. Give into them and risk a lot.

I have shares. What am I doing you may ask, given I've witnessed and written about many stock market crashes. In nearly every case, stocks recover relatively quickly and my losses at the moment are significant, but only on paper. I’ve ridden out every stock market crisis since 1980 when I started writing about financial markets for Reuters. I’m doing the same now.     

MARGIN CALLS

The one thing retail investors often forget is the dynamic that margin calls have on markets. 

If an investor has borrowed money to buy stock, which many do, they secure the loan on the value of the stock. If they buy a stock and it goes up, fine. If it goes down, the lender will ask for a margin payment to cover the difference between the loan and the value of the holding. 

If an investor gets hit by a margin call they will be forced to sell the stock to cover the margin call. In the recent orange stock market collapse, forced margin selling exacerbated the downside considerably. 

It is this dynamic which causes suicides and bankruptsies during market collapses. Never let greed take over investment decisions. Trade within your limits and understand your maximum loss. Beware of futures or options where it is possible to lose everything because of the way they are leveraged. Taking a 20 pct hit on a stock holding is one thing. Losing your entire investment, or more, is quite another.

UNCERTAINTY IS THE WORST THING FOR MARKETS

Uncertainty is something financial markets hate. I’ve lost count of the number of market analysts saying as much in stories I’ve written over the years. We currently have a hugely uncertain situation as the orange one keeps changing his mind. 

Yesterday he was going to war with the world over trade and boasting how world leaders were but panicked when the markets collapsed and backed down on Wednesday by suspending tariffs by three months for everyone other than China.

He claimed that other countries were calling and "kissing my a**" to negotiate tariff rates just before they went into effect. “They are dying to make a deal. 'Please, please sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything sir,'” he imitated a begging foreign leader. 

I’d really like to meet anyone who believes that. From a proven liar who is barely able to form a 

coherent sentence, it’s a leap to believe any self-respecting country leader would debase themselves like that. 

By doing a massive U-turn on the tariffs because he was panicking over the stock market crash, only increases the uncertainty as to what his malfunctioning synapses will come up with next. 

The bottom line is no major corporation will move quickly to rebase to the US because the orange administration changes its mind, almost on a daily basis. His actions are not pragmatic, they are driven by panic. His actions are not strategic, they are scattergun.

It’s hugely expensive to rebase manufacturing to the US and takes months, if not years. This is what the orange man wants but some large companies like General Motors and John Deere are already calling his bluff and are happy to wait it out and carry on with plans they already have in place. General Motors to drop 14,000 jobs in North America and close five plants as well, sending a clear message it was prioritizing global expansion over Trump’s nationalist agenda.

Farm machinery manufacturer John Deere has said it will push ahead with plans to move some of its production from Iowa to Mexico. The orange one is clearly furious and has been making all sorts of threats against both companies.      

Which would seem to be a wise move given the current administration seems to change its  mind almost daily on major US trade policy. You simply can’t run a major company with that degree of uncertainty hanging over you. 

Besides, the US mid-term elections are coming in November. There are just too many variables in place for businesses to make long term plans on the basis of the current chaos. Who knows what madness is coming next? Invasion of Greenland? Invasion of Panama, taking Gaza? 

Or, indeed, the US, one way or another, abandons this madness and we can all get back to business as usual. 

But the chaos looks set to continue and unless you think you can second-guess the orange one, it’s probably best to take a hands-off approach to things. If you are thinking of second-guessing him and putting money into the market, I wish you the very best of luck.   

Tinkerty Tonk...

 

Freedom of Speech - well, not all the time

“The world turns and the world changes, but one thing does not change. In all of my years, one thing does not change, however you disguise it, this thing does not change: The perpetual struggle of Good and Evil,” is a quote from a play called The Rock by  T.S. Eliot, a poet, essayist and playwright (1888-1965).

Mankind has to accept the world changes, but at the same time we do not have to accept that  somehow this justifies a shift from good towards evil. 

The bullish and aggressive narratives which currently dominate our lives, largely, it seems, as a result of social media, is clearly making for a more dangerous and unstable world. Sure we all accept the world will constantly change, but why do we apparently have to accept it changing for the worst?   

The understanding of what the truth and freedom of speech actually mean is horribly clouded and people already shrug and say “Ah, we are now living in The Post Truth Era.” That such a phrase actually exists is absurd. Do we really accept that lying is now OK? Does that not undermine the whole rule of law, much less morality?

Let’s take freedom of speech, a long-cherished and hard fought for right of democracies everywhere and something billions of the eight billion of us on this planet, do not enjoy. 

The recent headline stealing story of a mainland Chinese woman married to a local man who has had her Alien Resident Card (ARC) card revoked and is being deported from Taiwan, has thrown the issue into sharp relief.

Let’s look at the details of that case before we get into the broader issues of what exactly is freedom of speech and how the understanding of it is currently being distorted, mainly by those in a position of political power.  

For our home example, I’ll use her TikTok label of Yaya.

Yaya’s assertion that her human rights were being violated because under Taiwan’s constitution she had the right of freedom of speech and her TikToks saying Taiwan was an awful country and China was well able to attack and take the island over and should do so, were protected speech. 

Quite why she stayed here and did not return to China with her family if she thought Taiwan was such an awful place, is another question. 

But her assertion that her rights to freedom of speech were violated is wrong because freedom of speech is not absolute. 

It would seem that under law, her defence to deportation is flawed as her speech strays into the area of sedition and that is why she is being kicked out. Sedition is broadly defined as “conduct or speech inciting people to rebel against the authority of a state or monarch”. I’m a journalist not a lawyer, but it seems she is being ejected not for saying Taiwan should be part of China, but for advocating that China should take Taiwan by force. 

She was strongly supported by the KMT and you don’t need to be a genius to analyse their motives.   

By their actions in parliament and general rhetoric it seems obvious to all but the meanest intelligence that the Kuomintang are actively working to help China take control of Taiwan. This despite the almost perfect irony that the Kuomintang were founded on the principle of waging war against the CCP. Go figure? 

‘By their actions shall you know them’ is a paraphrase of The Bible’s book of Matthew which basically says judge people's character and authenticity by their deeds and actions, not simply by their words or appearances.

But I digress. 

Whether Yaya is simply seeking clicks and views and the accompanying money from TikTok, or whether she is something more sinister like an agent provocateur in the pay of Beijing is obviously open to question. You have to ask yourself if destroying your life and splitting up your family so effectively is not something you expect to be ultimately rewarded for?

Call it a conspiracy theory if you like, but parading in front of journalists and courting publicity even as she was thrown out of the country are the actions of someone expecting to be rewarded somehow. Or she is just as stupid as a rock.      

To my mind, she is rightly being deported and the less of such people in Taiwan seeking to promote a China takeover, particularly by force of arms, the better. 

But it does raise the issue that while some countries have strict sedition laws which can be used to stifle freedom of speech, Taiwan does not. The question is, should such laws be tightened given the threat from the mainland given that for Taiwan it could mean bombs, invasion and mass slaughter of civilians, not just a threat to the existing government.

Since martial law ended in July 1987, Taiwan has junked its strict anti-sedition laws and embraced democracy with a strong emphasis on freedom of speech. Clearly, this latest case of the outspoken Yaya means the government might need to look again at how sedition should be defined and handled in the future. 

There would seem little hope of that while the KMT hangs onto its tiny parliamentary majority and is actively seeking closer ties with China, but when things change it would be well to revisit this and finesse the sedition laws here. Given the oft-made threats of direct violence and war towards the Taiwanese people by China, this would make a lot of sense.

But it is a tricky balancing act. Taiwan was right to pretty much abandon the strict sedition laws as they can easily be misused to subdue democracy and have been used historically to subdue populations and prevent political opposition to an incumbent administration.

During Taiwan’s White Terror Period (1949-1992) sedition laws were used to great effect by the KMT. This era ended in September 1992 with the repeal of Article 100 of the Criminal Code, allowing for the prosecution of "anti-state" activities. Therein lies an issue about perhaps changing the code, particularly given the ‘enemy’ is the same, China. 

Thirty three years later, China is again a huge threat as it was in 1949. Maybe time for a rethink?     

India and Hong Kong have both found their sedition laws particularly useful at times to stymie opposition groups. 

In Hong Kong, the century old laws were used to great effect to prosecute democracy activists and these convictions sparked concerns over the impact on freedom of speech, in the wake of the Beijing-imposed national security law.

In India, the laws of sedition are still a powerful sanction used by the authorities to criminalise dissent and arrest critics of the government. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government uses these old laws to crack down on journalists, activists and others.

Surprise, surprise, sedition laws were pretty much a product of the Colonial Era which to a large extent came under British rule, certain in the case of Hong Kong and India that is the case. Other countries are just as guilty but these old laws in most parts of Asia are throwbacks from the Colonial Era, whichever powerful country involved was.

Do a Wikipedia search <Colonial empire> for a full list (which, incidentally, includes the United States…a nod to Trump’s ambitions for Greenland and the Gaza Strip). It really is an interesting list if you have not studied this subject or had much time for history and were too busy earning a living.

Many countries have laws of sedition but most don’t use them and some have softened them much like Taiwan has. However, the definition of Freedom of Speech is very much in play in global politics and it is a phrase being bandied about more and more.    

The fact is there is no such thing as absolute freedom of speech, it seems daft that Elon Musk has declared himself to be a “free-speech absolutist”.

Much like the man, this is clearly absurd. Having bought Twitter he promptly banned a whole bunch of people from it who he didn’t like so is clearly a hypocrite. There is nothing illegal about being a hypocrite but it serves to remind the entire world the man is morally bankrupt and a fraud, Nazi salute notwithstanding.  

On top of this, he cannot be ‘free-speech absolutist’ as he is threatening to sue Jamaal Bowman, an American politician and former educator for calling him a “thief and a nazi” during a television interview. Which is exactly why there is no such thing as absolute freedom of speech. If there was, defamation would not exist and that is preposterous. 

Aside from the largely pointless ramblings of the likes of relative nobody in global terms like  Musk, more insidious are the moves by US President Donald J Trump who is currently moving to stifle news reporting in a thinly disguised revenge attack on organisations critical of him in the past. Using free speech as a cover.  

What we are not seeing cuts to the quick, as suddenly…freedom of speech becomes a problem.   

Associated Press (AP) was banned for resisting Trump’s demand to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” and other news organisations like Reuters and some European publications have been similarly affected. 

Trump’s war on the truth and freedom of speech, together with his moves to replace it with slavish sycophancy from supportive outlets must be music to Chinese state media who are filling the vacuum with their own brand of world news.

Just as Trump is making inroads into the US Constitution, this attack on the First Amendment is an obvious one. Like dictators before him, including Hitler, Stalin and Mao, Trump seeks to directly control the narrative. His seemingly endless lies will be with us for a while yet until the American electorate comes to its senses and dumps him. 

Surely, by now, most right thinking humans who have devoted some critical thought time to the subject must realise that Trump will sell Taiwan down the river if it suits his own ends, just like he has tried to do with Ukraine and their rare-earths. 

Rare-earths…semiconductores, pause for thought. (not forgetting Greenland, Gaza etc) 

"Democracy Dies in Darkness" is the official slogan of The Washington Post. Sadly for us all the United States, that one-time bastion of free speech, freedom and democracy is entering a darker phase where all those rights are at risk, even for America’s own population.

Tinkerty Tonk...

Today's political leaders - When the satire becomes real

The deterioration of the quality of the world’s politicians has been happening for a while now but 2025 might become the year political satire finally dies. The reality is fast becoming too bizarre to be ridiculed.  

There has always existed the irritating background noise of absurdness, truth bending, corruption and stupidity around politics, pretty much everywhere in the world. It has been so since prehistoric man was first dumb enough to elect their first cave leader. 

In modern times, when politics was still a serious business there remained a good chunk of ethics and morality in play, with the occasional lapses rich pickings for gleeful journalists and comedians to pounce-on and poke fun at those who rule over us.

Politicians would see it as a badge of honour if they were satirised. I was lucky enough to visit No.11 Downing Street a number of times when I was a lobby correspondent for Reuters during the 1990s and the staircase at No.11, the Finance Minister’s London residence, is lined with framed political newspaper cartoons dating back decades.      

 Once in a while we were treated to an entertaining full-blow scandal with accompanying banner headlines as red-faced politicians apologised for impropriety, or were embarrassed into resigning to ‘spend more time with their family’.

However, in the past decade or so politics has been infected by more extreme forms of behaviour where bad has become the norm, outright lies accepted as ‘alternative truths’ and downright stupidity and gaffes by wannabes seeking high power commonplace.

The zeitgeist, it has to be said, largely driven by western politicians, has changed. Sadly there are leaders here in Taiwan who appear to have seen Trump and other western politicians as role models and copied their style. Lying, switching sides when it suited them, making ridiculous statements expecting them to be believed and, perhaps worse, thinking they are above the law.

‘If they can do it, we can do it.’ A lot of political behaviour in Taiwan politics in recent years has been straight out of Trump’s playbook. It’s sad that they can’t even have their own style of awful but have to copy someone as unbalanced as Trump.   

What used to be satire has turned into simple reporting as lies and absurd statements have become commonplace and not a rarity. It’s tough to satirise the already absurd, ridiculous or corrupt. Like the guys who want to cut the budgets of the Transport Ministry, Police and Foreign Ministry because it will improve the safety of trains, somehow make scams less prevalent and make wooing back previously supportive countries easier. It makes so little sense it’s impossible to make fun of.          

In the decades following World War II there existed an integrity around politics, particularly in the west, where the mind-bending horrors of the war were so fresh in the collective memory that the need for ethics and decency were prominent in voters' minds. Politicians easily risked the ire of the electorate should they stray too far from a path of being relatively upright.

Sadly, that collective memory has evaporated as the wartime generation has died off. Both my father and mother died within the last ten years. He was a conscripted soldier while my mother lived through the Blitz and survived the bombs raining down on her East London home. 

Both had lived through a traumatic experience which was the direct result of a man who in a very short time destroyed the German republic, turning it into a totalitarian dictatorship in perhaps the most astonishing political transformations in the history of democracy.

As has often been said, mankind never seems to learn from history and it seems the lessons of a century ago when a democracy was given over to a nationalist dictatorship resulting in a World War, a hundred million deaths, economic collapse and the global misery has passed from living memory. 

Now, we are witnessing a return to aggressive nationalism in many countries, and in some the erosion of democracy accompanied by leaders seeking to rule by decree by undermining the judicial system and the constitution. Most of this is happening against the background of a shift towards the right wing of the political spectrum, authoritarianism and, most strikingly, blaming immigrants for a country's ills.  

But surely no one in the world who is in their right mind wants another Hitler, right? 

Until recently most journalists have avoided comparing what is going on now to what happened in the 1930s in Germany for fear of falling foul of Godwin’s Law. US lawyer Mike Godwin was an early adopter of the internet and in 1990 observed…"As a discussion on the Internet grows longer, the likelihood of a person/s being compared to Hitler or another Nazi, increases." 

For decades this law appeared to hold true and it was deemed that once someone in a thread compared someone or something to Hitler or the Nazis, they had run dry of meaningful  argument as the comparison was held to be so extreme as to be absurd. 

It is now 35 years on and the current crop of world leaders and their bizarre antics, lies and undermining of democracy is tragically becoming normal and seen, by some, as acceptable behaviour. 

From US President Elect Trump’s crimes, endless lies and insults in the United States, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s constant lies and mishandling of Brexit and Covid and former Prime Minister Liz Truss disastrous premiership in the United Kingdom, to Taiwan’s current political scandals, turncoat politicians, lies and the undermining of the Constitutional Court’s powers.  

The KMT are simply refusing to accept any judges put forward so the Constitutional Court is not quorate and cannot make decisions. They are using the democratic tools at their disposal to undermine the Taiwan constitution, just as Trump is doing with the Supreme Court in the US. 

In 1933 Hitler did a similar thing. His erstwhile lawyer Hans Frank, later executed for his complicity in Nazi atrocities, said Hitler’s was an expert in sensing “the potential weakness inherent in every formal form of law” and then ruthlessly exploiting that weakness.

Just like Trump, he was a fierce supporter of freedom of speech and like Trump used his   constitutional right to free speech to huge rallies and spew malicious attacks on Bolsheviks (a far-left faction of Lenin’s Russian Social Democratic Labor Party, social democrats, immigrants, Jews and even fellow rightwing nationalists. 

Trump has done the same thing with the democrats, Mexicans and America’s immigrants generally. Hitler’s oft stated claim was to make Germany great again, a startling and worrying reminder to us all of Trump’s - Make America Great Again.   

Hitler exploited his small political power within the democracy to gridlock legislative processes and crush political opposition, undermining democratic structures, thus transforming a democratic republic into a constitutional dictatorship. Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels, who on May 1, 1945 killed his six children and wife in the Berlin Bunker then committed suicide, once said, “The big joke on democracy is that it gives its mortal enemies the tools to its own destruction.”

Trump’s rhetoric regarding immigrants into the US has undoubtedly been vile. Variously describing them as coming from “shithole countries” and stating “They’re rough people, in many cases from jails, prisons, from mental institutions, insane asylums. You know, insane asylums, that’s ‘Silence of the Lambs’ stuff…” He has promised mass deportation of migrants. 

Thirty five years on Godwin said recently, “Trump’s opening himself up to the Hitler comparison,” he said in an interview with POLITICO Magazine at the end of last year. In his view, Trump is actively seeking to evoke the parallel, setting himself up for a dictator-like administration. 

Which brings us back to the crop of authoritarian wannabe dictators in the world today. It seems clear Trump will do everything in his power to remain in office and manipulate the existing US constitution to bolster his power and satisfy his lust to take over other countries like Canada, Greenland and control of the Panama Canal. All that rhetoric might seem mad, and it is, but don’t underestimate the unbalanced nature of Trump’s psyche or overestimate his intellect to do much more than decide which burger to have for lunch.

The rise of the right-wing across the world is something that should worry us all, it is not just the US. The Netherlands, Argentina, Italy, France, Sweden and Finland have all seen right-wing populist parties gain more power. Surprisingly, Germany’s AfD (Alternative for Germany) with its promise of mass deportation of migrants is a serious electoral contender in February’s elections.

All this plays into the hands of authoritarians and if you scratch an authoritarian, there is a dictator just below the surface.  

The rise of right-wing nationalism globally is worrying for Taiwan. A Trump with imperialistic ambitions for Canada and Greenland are not a million miles from the imperialistic ambitions we have witnessed with the South China Sea, Africa and Taiwan. I am convinced Trump will not lift a finger to help Taiwan if it suits his own selfish ambitions for the United States. Remember, as a wannabe dictator, he has openly admired other dictators around the world. He wants to be like them.   

That is not the only worry for Taiwan. Just as we are seeing elsewhere and as history illustrates, it is possible to undermine democracy using the very tools that are designed to keep it in place. Those in Taiwan who want Taiwan to be closer to China are on a daily basis undermining the existing democratic process by locking Parliament’s doors to force through votes. The parties with the small majority in parliament are also making the Constitutional Court impotent and pushing through laws which makes it easier for China to make inroads into Taiwan society.

All this is happening fast as with such a tiny parliamentary majority the KMT and TMD know only too well that if they do not act fast to ingratiate themselves with China there is a risk the voters will catch on and vote them out. Why else do you think they are meddling with the recall rules making it more difficult for the public to get rid of MPs. They are using the existing rules to stymie the democracy we currently enjoy. 

Democracy is far from perfect with inherent flaws built into a system that is supposed to ensure the ‘people’ get what they want. Unfortunately the flaws in the system enable the likes of the KMT and TMD to gain a toe-hold in the Parliament to force through policies that bring Taiwan closer to China. It is abundantly clear that is what they want to do. It must be obvious to anyone who voted for the KMT or TMD last time that they voted for closer ties with China and sadly that is what might get.   

The United States is obviously happy with Trump and will reap what they have sowed. The only way of gauging that is waiting to see what happens now. Maybe the US system of democracy is strong enough to prevent him from rolling Canada, Greenland or Panama in a move similar to what we have seen in the South China Seas, and to some extent Africa. 

If the last democratic election in Taiwan signalled a desire by the voters to get closer to China and push for closer integration with all that entails, that is the will of the people. If the electorate wants to turn Taiwan into Hong Kong and kill democracy, that is their right under the current democratic rules.

What I would say is just as the United States had every right to vote for a potential dictator who is also so clearly an idiot, Taiwan had the right to vote for an administration that will obviously undermine their democracy and make the country a potential slave to its neighbour. Will we witness hard won democracy and freedoms destroyed by the very system they are designed to uphold.    

Given the history of what dictatorships have done to the world, it is tragic to see a young and proud Asian democracy being pushed into the arms of a totalitarian dictatorship by the very system designed to keep it free.    

But in a democracy, you get the government you deserve and have to live with the consequences.  

Tinkerty Tonk... 

Trust Trump - Think again

Over the past few years I’ve met some lovely folks in Taiwan who were enthusiastic Donald Trump supporters based mainly on the fact that he was more forthright with his anti-China rhetoric than previous US administrations during his one time in office from 2017 to 2021. 

Their view is based on the fact his administration tended to lean more towards seeing the overall good that supporting Taiwan would be for the U.S. from a foreign policy viewpoint and that this will be the case going forward should he win again. 

However, Trump was always more circumspect and his focus has been largely on trade and the monetary aspect of dealings with China. Nearly all his criticism of China was trade and exchange rate based which jived with his overriding ‘America First’ policy. Aside from a few snipes at them about the Olympics and pollution and small, more general, issues.

It would seem naive to believe Trump will be more inclined to help Taiwan in the future if tension escalates more. The fact the former President stood up to China on trade and was more forthright with his rhetoric than previous US administrations would appear to be scant reason to believe he would go much further should the worst happen re-Taiwan/China.

Anyone here observing Trump knows full well he is a convicted criminal. Aside from the monotonous regularity we have to suffer hearing his unbalanced rantings, outright lies and childish insults against his political rivals, he has huge legal troubles.

He is still the first former president to be convicted of a felony when a Manhattan jury in May found him guilty of 34 charges related to falsifying business records in order to cover up a hush-money payment Trump made to porn-star Stormy Daniels. 

He has yet to be sentenced for that crime but in another case he was ordered to pay more than USD 88.0 million for defaming and sexually abusing the writer E. Jean Carroll, an American journalist, author, and advice columnist.

While he has won some legal victories of late, he still goes into this election as a convicted criminal with three other cases of election subversion pending following his dictator-like attack  on democracy during the 2020 election debacle. How can you begin to trust a man like this will behave in any way that does not benefit himself personally?

We already know Trump admires Xi, Putin and Kim Jong Un, labelling them as strong leaders and showers them with sycophantic adoration. He said of Xi last year, “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.” 

Saying everything is ‘perfect’ in China shows just how out of touch he is with the current state of the world.

His praise of Kim had members of his own Republican Party decrying his comments. He posted on social media in May - “My relationship with Kim Jong Un was very beautiful. We got along very well. I got along great with him. Very strong guy. He is the absolute leader of his country”

Adding later about the North Korean dictator, “Very smart guy, very strong guy. He’s the absolute leader of that country.” In 2018, for example, the then-American president repeatedly praised Kim, calling the dictator “open,” “honourable,” and “a pretty smart cookie.” “I do trust him, yeah.” Later in the same interview the then-president added, “His country does love him. His people, you see the fervor. They have a great fervor.”

When I was stationed in the Beijing bureau I visited Pyongyang many times and I’m here to tell you that is incorrect. If Trump thinks this way he has a kindergarten level of understanding of what goes on the DPRK. I would bet he has a similar level of understanding about the Taiwan/China situation.

His praise of Putin is probably most worrying, praising his one time counterpart’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “savvy.” That was in February 2022 the day Russia invaded. 

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview. “He (Putin) used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”

This bizarre statement shows just how little Trump understood about the situation and, as usual,  fired off mindless comments with no real understanding of what was happening, or that it was the start of a war that would last years and result in around a million casualties. 

Yet some Taiwanese think he can be trusted with Taiwan's situation?

Increasingly bizarre performances by Trump who appears more unhinged by the day, his 78 years are clearly having an impact on his ability to function. I guess it is little surprise that he spent some time talking about the size of the late golf legend Arnold Palmer penis at a rally Saturday in Pennsylvania. 

During the same speech he again resulted in crude and childish insults. “We can’t stand you, you’re a shit vice president,” he said of Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Party presidential candidate. He rambled on, “Arnold Palmer was all man, and I say that in all due respect to women. And I love women. But this is a guy that was all man…This man was strong and tough, but I refuse to say it, but when he took the showers with the other pros, they came out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s unbelievable.’ I had to say it.” 

It’s all beyond bizarre and this is only a small sample of the madness of the unbalanced nature of Trump’s thinking and mercurial behaviour plus his ‘America First’ nationalistic stance. Note his latest rants about tariffs include not just China but imports from other countries as well. He only targets China specifically with higher tariffs because the lion’s share (one third in fact) of the U.S. deficit sits with China.

China $279,424

Mexico $152,379

Vietnam $104,627

Germany $83,021

Japan $71,175

Canada $67,861

Ireland $65,342

South Korea $51,398

Taiwan $47,975 

The Trump supporters here should perhaps remember that Taiwan is in ninth place in terms of those countries with the biggest deficit with the US. It is a rich and important country globally with a good export performance and would be badly affected by US tariffs. It ranks number one globally regarding semiconductors which are vital to the world’s industry. Evidence: the supply chain disruptions during Covid where interruption of the shipping of semiconductors from Taiwan had a major impact on industries around the planet.

Remember, Taiwan is in 14th place among the world's wealthiest countries in terms of GDP per capita. This is out of 195 countries in the United Nations of which Taiwan is not included. 

Setting aside Trump’s lack of business acumen, he has bankrupted six of his businesses since 1991, it’s hard to see how a continued economic attack on China will help Taiwan’s cause. 

China is already sinking into a self-imposed isolation and paranoia and facing huge domestic issues like the collapse of the property market, debt problems and a shrinking economy. Include international confrontation with the South China Sea as well as issues with the Belt and Road initiative which is losing traction mainly as a result of poor risk management and the outlook is bleak. 

If China is struggling, which it clearly is at the moment, if you look at the economic evidence available to us all, it’s likely a bad idea for the U.S. to go on the offensive. A wounded animal is dangerous and to hit hard with the blunt instrument of tariffs is a bad idea compared with a more diplomatic approach.

A Harris administration would almost certainly see a continuation of the democrats support for Taiwan and it’s own Pacific security of which this island plays a major role. 

My fear is a Trump administration would seek to negotiate a trade deal with China which benefited the U.S. and Taiwan becomes even more of a bargaining chip than it already is on the global diplomatic stage and is sold down the river as part of that deal. 

Given the way Trump behaves and given his fairly obvious cognitive deterioration, I would not put that beyond the realms of possibility.

 He said when in Beijing in 2017, “I don’t blame China,” Trump said. “After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country to the benefit of its citizens?”

After decades of support from the U.S. I feel sure he would sell Taiwan for thirty pieces of silver in the form of a trade, or other deal, with China.

According to the polls, pretty much 50 percent of Americans support him. Frankly, I’m amazed at that. Most of the rest of the world sees him as a joke, other than a few other right wing countries. I can only put it down to the cult he has built around himself which I have written about in the pages lately.

I’m looking forward to November five and fervently hoping Trump is handed his hat and leaves the room. 

He is a dangerous, low intellect right wing populist akin to many of the bad characters we have seen in power throughout history. 

I hope and pray the American public will make the same decision as they did in 2020 and reject this clown. He is clearly not fit to be a global player that potentially affects so many lives worldwide.

Including yours. 

Tinkierty Tonk....

Oh what a tangled web we weave

(中文版在下方）

“Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practise to deceive” is a line from a poem by early nineteenth century Scottish author, Sir Walter Scott. An aphorism that uses just a few words to describe a life experience so well that it has become a powerful idiom.

The premise is, when you tell a simple lie, it may become necessary to tell more complex lies, which eventually spiral out of control and ultimately lead to the exposure of the original deceit.

It would appear that Ko Wen-je is wading deeper into the mire of this trap with half-truths and deception, with his usual cavalier wave of a hand and a -- Who me? No this is all perfectly normal and besides, other people do it. -- 

It is the same-old slippery, gaslighting ex-mayor we have all learned to mistrust. 

Thank heaven he is not that bright, so was easily outmanoeuvred in his bid to become President. That unedifying episode was acutely embarrassing to watch. I still cringe at the way he publicly debased himself and appeared not to even realise how far out of his depth he was or just how spectacularly he had been outsmarted. 

It’s rare to witness such a fine display of ill-founded confidence in one’s own abilities, coupled with an utter lack of self-awareness and near zero political skills. It was like watching three grown men drowning a kitten.           

Now we have the entertaining spectacle of him and his family coming under increasing, and daily, scrutiny as journalists and others stir up the mud to find questionable episodes that require greater transparency, and, yes, ultimately the absolute truth. 

The tangled web for the TPP Chairman seems to be spiralling out of control and he really needs to address where the money came from for his TWD43 million ‘office’ or was it his own money. Does a surgeon really earn that much and can stump up that amount of cash for a place without needing a mortgage? If it is from party funds, why is it in his name? 

Even if his party constitution allows for this it seems odd that it is not illegal. I’m not a lawyer but it would surprise me if it is OK under the law.  

From whatever angle you look at this it is morally bankrupt in the extreme if party funds are involved in some way, regardless of the fact he may yet say he plans to sell it in the future and hand back every cent to the party. Always assuming the TPP even exists for much longer.

If it is his own money, why not just say so and put this all to rest as there would be no case to answer.  

In 2015 just one-year after becoming Taipei Mayor he told a reporter during an interview in a breathtaking display of hubris. “I was chosen by God to save Taiwan.” 

To actually articulate something so utterly absurd gives us at least some insight into what goes on in the addled brain of such people. Frankly, such unbalanced utterances should immediately deem them unfit for public office. Just spend a while reading history books and it’s easy to see where such a belief can take someone if they are handed the reins of power. 

It’s also easy to see how this kind of thinking can take someone when it comes to the more mundane areas of life like budgets and expenses when taking money from petty-cash to pay for hairdos and their morning coffee leads into deeper waters involving more money. -- Hey, I’m the chosen one, how can what I’m doing be wrong? 

This God-complex is certainly not uncommon among some of the more unbalanced of our politicians but it also seems to infect the workings of the grey-matter of people like billionaires and other people with power. A quick glance at some of them soon proves this to be the case.

That said, we notice it more because politicians can, and do, actually affect our daily lives and generally it is our money, in the form of taxes, that is at stake. It might be just a hairdo or a coffee for you but it is my money you are spending!   

Former United Kingdom Prime Minister (2019-2022) Boris Johnson is a case in point. Born with a silver spoon in his mouth and attending the most prestigious school and university he behaved like it was his right to attain the top job and he was clearly smarter than anyone around him. Ko Wen-je often indicates he thinks he is smarter than anyone else, in spite of the fact he is constantly proved wrong on this point. 

After a career in journalism then politics, Johnson’s lying got him sacked twice. His return to the political fray saw his time marred by accusations of lying including one of the most enduring lies during Brexit. Johnson put his name to the claim on the side of the Vote Leave campaign bus that “we send the European Union £350m a week” and the money could be used to “fund our NHS instead”.

This was shot down by the UK Statistics Authority who described it as “misleading”.

There were other examples of Johnson’s only loose association with the truth but the final nail in his political coffin was the so-called Partygate scandal. During several Covid lockdowns where the public was confined to their homes, parties took place at 10 Downing Street, its garden and other government and Conservative Party buildings. All in direct contravention of the laws passed by Johnson and his government. 

Johnson lied and said either there had been no parties, he was unaware of them, all the rules were followed etc. There was a spike in public anger over the then alleged parties fueled by a strong feeling there was one-rule-for-them-another-for-us.

Johnson resigned before the results of an inquiry into his behaviour was published but it is now officially on record that Johnson deliberately and repeatedly lied on the floor of the British Parliament about the parties at No.10.  

Most agree now that Johnson was never fit to be Prime Minister, just as Taiwan appears to have dodged a bullet with the TPP Chairman disappearing under the weight of his own lack of transparency. 

I guess it would take a psychologist to perhaps explain why their massive arrogance does not allow them to come clean, admit to mistakes and take the consequences. Lack of moral compass perhaps, a true belief that what they did was too minor, or a belief that they were so important and smart that the real truth would never be fully exposed. 

Or, as long as they keep lying, making excuses and avoiding the truth, the whole situation would somehow magically go away. 

The ‘tangled web’ they weave is only made worse if they go down this road, as, like Johnson discovered to his cost, it generally ends in a disaster which is likely far worse than if they had just come-clean in the first place. Johnson was popular with the voters and I personally believe he could have survived if he had been honest at the beginning - the British public would likely have forgiven him. 

His problem was, he was too used to lying…it had become a habit, and broadly speaking he had usually gotten away with it. 

Ko Wen-je seems to have very recently come to the conclusion that keeping his mouth shut is probably a good idea and has become notably quieter of late, leaving his house and scuttling to his car without saying a word. This is a wise move and may indicate he knows his position is no longer tenable and bluster, excuses and half-facts will no longer work. 

Is he preparing to come clean, or at least confront the myriad questions head-on?

Like Johnson, he appears to not have the skills and moral compass to sit comfortably in high office. I’m afraid there simply isn’t the room here to go into Donald Trump and all the shenanigans there. Although, remember it was only five years ago The Donald raised his hands and eyes to the sky telling a group of reporters “I am the chosen one”. 

In 2022 whilst still Taipei Mayor, Ko Wen-je described himself as a “Masterpiece”

With hubris oozing from every pore he told the presumably dumbfounded journalist. ”It is unlikely there will be another politician like me. Probably in 400-years there may be one” 

Well, at least let’s hope he was right about that!

Tinkerty Tonk

「哦我們編織了一個多麼糾結的網／當我們第一次練習欺騙」（Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive）

這是十九世紀初蘇格蘭作家史考特爵士（Sir Walter Scott）一首詩中的兩句。這句格言只用幾個字，就精確描述了一種生命經歷。當你說一個簡單的謊言，隨之而來需要編織更複雜的謊言來掩蓋，但最終必將失控，然後最初的欺瞞也會被揭露。

如今看來前台北市長、民眾黨主席柯文哲還在用半真半假的謊言和欺騙，讓自己陷入更深的泥淖，他繼續漫不經心的揮手比舞：我嗎？ 不，這完全正常，而且其他人也這樣做。

然而我們都已經學會了不信任這位狡猾、善於操縱煤氣燈效應的前市長。

謝天謝地，他並不那麼聰明，所以在總統大選中輕易被擊敗。他在公開場合的表現令人尷尬，但他甚至沒有意識到自己的膚淺，或者他的智商其實並不高。

他對自己毫無根據的自信，加上完全缺乏自我意識和近乎零的政治智慧，這是很少見的。去年選前的藍白合鬧劇，就像看著三個成年人淹死一隻小貓，面對侯友宜、朱立倫和馬英九，他毫無招架之力。

公私不分買豪宅不可思議

最近越來越多台灣人檢視他和他的家人，記者每天挖掘關於他的爭議事件，這一切都極具娛樂效果。人們需要的是更大的透明度，然後找出絕對的真相。

民眾黨主席錯綜複雜的謊言網似乎正在失控，例如他需要解釋他4300萬「個人辦公室」的資金來自哪裡。

如果那是他的私人財產，外科醫生真的能賺那麼多錢，並且可以在不需要貸款的情況下，花那麼多現金去買一間辦公室嗎？如果是政黨的資金，為什麼會是在他個人的名下？ 即使他的政黨黨章允許他用政黨的補助買私人房產，在我看來還是很奇怪。如果台灣法律允許，就一個外國人而言，我會感到很驚訝。

無論從哪個角度來看，把政黨資金放在私人名下都是道德破產，就算他可能會說他計劃在未來出售這個房產，並將每一分錢都歸還給政黨，那我們就得假設民眾黨能存在那麼久。如果是他自己的錢買個人辦公室，直接說出來就了事了，任何人都無話可說。

就任台北市長一年後，柯文哲在接受記者採訪時表現出令人驚嘆的傲慢態度，說自己是上天派來拯救台灣的人。

如此極端荒謬的發言，至少讓我們看清這些人混亂的大腦中到底在想什麼。坦白說，這種言論應該立即被視為不適合擔任任何公職。只要花一點時間閱讀歷史就很容易看出，這種人如果掌握了權力，會把自己帶到什麼不可思議的境界。

涉及生活中的平凡領域，例如認為從辦公室零用金拿錢來支付洗頭或是晨間咖啡的費用沒有問題，可想而知隨之而來會進入更深的水域、濫用更多的錢。但是他們想的是：我是天選之人，我做的事怎麼可能是錯的呢？這種上帝情結在心態不平衡的政客中並不罕見，也存在於億萬富翁和一些有權勢的人。

我們需要更注意政客因為他們可以影響我們的日常生活，而且我們的錢（以稅收的形式）也受到威脅。對這些政客來說可能只是洗個頭或是喝杯咖啡，但他們花的是我們的錢！

傲慢說謊政客終將被拆穿

看看外國的情況，英國前首相（2019-2022）強生（Boris Johnson）就是一個很好的例子。他含著金湯匙出生，就讀於最負盛名的中學和大學，他表現得好像獲得最高職位是他與生俱來的權利，而且他認為他比周圍的任何人都聰明。一如柯文哲經常表示自己比任何人都聰明，儘管事實不斷證明他在這一點上是錯的。

強生在擔任新聞記者後從政，因為謊言他曾兩度被解僱。重返政治戰場後，他並未就此誠實，最為人知的謊言發生在英國脫歐期間。強生在鼓吹脫歐巴士上的標語這麼說：「我們每周向歐盟匯出3.5億英鎊」，脫歐後這筆錢可以來「資助我們的國民醫療服務體系」。英國統計局駁斥了這一說法，並稱其「誤導」民眾。

還有其他一些例子證明，強生總是用半真半假的說法誤導民眾。他政治棺材上的最後一根釘子是派對門醜聞，在新冠疫情封城期間，民眾被限制在家中無法外出，但在唐寧街10號首相官邸、花園以及其他政府和保守黨大樓，官員卻舉行了數次派對。這些都直接違反了強生及其政府通過的法律。

強生翻來覆去的謊言包括沒有舉辦派對、他不知道有派對、他遵守所有封城規等等。民眾對派對的憤怒與日俱增，因為這種行為很明顯雙標：他們有一條規則，我們的規則是另一條。

強生在派對門調查結果公佈之前辭職，但現在正式記錄在案的是，強生在首相官邸開派對一事，多次對英國議會故意撒謊。

現在許多英國人都同意，強生自始至終根本不適合擔任首相。台灣似乎躲過一劫，民眾黨主席在他自己缺乏透明度的重壓下，可能會就此消失。

我想也許需要心理學家才能解釋，為什麼這種政客的傲慢不允許他們坦承錯誤並承擔後果。也許是缺乏道德指南針，他們真心相信他們犯的錯誤微不足道，或者他們深信自己是如此重要和聰明，以至於真相永遠不需要出現。

或者，他們相信只要繼續說謊、找藉口、迴避真相，不利的情況就會神奇地消失。

如果他們沿著這條路走下去，這面他們編織的錯綜複雜的網，只會變得更糟，就像強生的例子以災難結束，而如果一開始就坦白，情況也許不會那麼糟糕。

強生很受選民歡迎，我個人相信如果他一開始就誠實的話，他或許可以在政壇存活下來，因為英國民眾可能會原諒他。問題是他太習慣說謊了，這已經成為一種習慣，而且過去他通常都能僥倖逃脫。

柯文哲絕非天選之人

回到台灣，柯文哲最近似乎得出結論，發現閉嘴可能是個好主意，因此他明顯安靜許多，一言不發離開住家大樓快步走向車子。可能他知道自己的立場不再站得住腳，虛張聲勢、找尋藉口和半真半假將不再有效。但他在被檢調人員帶走問話前，仍然以天選之人的高傲之姿，慷慨激昂說自己完全沒有錯。

他是否準備坦白，或至少正面面對無數問題？但和強生一樣，他似乎不具備擔任高階職位的技能和道德準則。

關於天選之人，前美國總統川普（Donald Trump）五年前舉起雙手，眼睛望向天空，告訴一群記者「我是被選中的人」。就像在2022年，柯文哲在一次媒體訪問中稱自己是「傑作」。

這個每個毛細孔都洋溢著傲慢的人，對著這位大概目瞪口呆的記者說，以後不會再有像自己這種的政治人物，大概400年才出他一個。

好吧，至少讓我們希望他是對的，台灣不會再有這樣的政治人物。

You get the Government you deserve

 

The old saying that “Voters get the Government they deserve” is often cited during times of political turmoil or social unrest. It is variously attributed to the 18th century conservative French philosopher and diplomat Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821) and third U.S. President Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826).

Who stole it from the other given they both lived at almost exactly the same time is open to question!

The thuggery and fighting in Taiwan’s Parliament so soon after an election would seem to indicate that voters here have indeed got the government they deserve, if they desire closer links with China. 

The pro-unification KMT's almost immediate trip to kowtow to China would appear to suggest that in democratic Taiwan the majority of people wish to eventually come under rule from Beijing. Otherwise, why vote for these people?

There is no way of knowing, but it is not a stretch to believe deals were done there, particularly as the guys that went have returned emboldened to aggressively and thuggishly pervert democracy here. They are clearly determined to wrest control of parliament and attempt to weaken the new President.

I guess to such minds, forcing out democracy in favour of dictatorship makes perfect sense given their apparent intent is to engineer reunification with China. 

The fact these same voters opted for a DPP President who at his inauguration called on China to stop the threats and accept the existence of its democracy, is somewhat puzzling. 

The desire for change is a powerful emotion and is hard to reconcile with another powerful human emotion, that of the desire for stability and certainty. Both can lead to apparently irrational and counter-intuitive behaviour and generational issues come into play.  

It may explain younger people flocking to the TPP, as a new-way, and older people sticking with the familiar KMT they grew up with. Before the TPP split the KMT vote, the growing number of others who see the DPP as a good way forward has for years been undermining the KMT voter base. This is likely due to the demographic make-up of the population changing as older KMT voters drop out of the numbers.

 It is easy to argue that it is the desire for change that has slightly tipped it the KMT’s way and we may now be in for a period of pro-China policies being forced through with the help of a lap-dog TPP.  Ten's of thousands have  gathered outside parliament to protest the KMT’s action recently, which is a fair indication that feelings are running high.

To my mind, reinforcing the idea the KMT trip to China was to cut some kind of deal is the fact China decided to stage war games around Taiwan last Friday, the very day of a big pro-democracy protest outside parliament. Their hatred of democracy is clear, and it is clearly supported by the KMT.  

It would be really interesting to know exactly what the deal was and how the guys who went are going to benefit? It’s all too much of a coincidence.   

If you voted KMT or TPP it is fair to assume you support them in their current actions, should not be surprised at what is happening in parliament right now, and you personally support closer ties with China. 

Does the vast majority of those who voted for the KMT or TPP want that, of course they do not? The trouble is, they have got the government they deserved. I hope they all won’t be too disappointed if it all goes horribly wrong for them on a personal level. 

Voting for the wrong people can certainly get you into trouble, although many appear to think that their ‘one little vote’ makes no difference in the grand scheme of things. They either don’t vote at all, pay scant attention to the issues, don’t read the news or just tend to believe what they read in politically biased media or the lies and misdirection of the politicians themselves. 

Which is sad, and is pretty much the cause of what you are seeing unfold in the Taiwan parliament now. That would be - barefaced turncoats with no moral compass - rejected and unseated politicians who are now by some miracle in positions of power - and an ex-convict who is now an MP.  

So have the voters in Taiwan made a blunder? Probably not, because this kind of thing happens all the time, and fortunately most democratic systems can undo damage after a few years by booting parties out if they are not happy with them. Laws can be reversed and in a democracy there is seldom enough time to do anything that can’t be reversed between elections. So voters have a safety net. 

The major problem for Taiwan is China, so the safety net most countries have is far more fragile here. If the current group of screwballs attempting to usurp proper parliamentary procedure are able to make changes allowing China to gain a foothold here, it would be extremely bad news for us all. Other countries do not have this kind of overriding issue.    

No political party is perfect, so voting for change for the sake of change is not a total risk, although I would question the motivation of some TPP voters who say they like the Chairman because he is “quirky and funny.” 

I’m guessing China now has new puppets planted in Taiwan’s political arena to champion their cause, the ex-mayor has been dumped because of his abject failure to make any mark during the Presidential election. Subsequently the TPP will wither and die.   

That said, there is always the risk of short-term damage if voters are hoodwinked into believing dishonest politicians by the media or by the politicians themselves. Of course, my example is going to be the poor land of my birth the, not so, United Kingdom. 

The ruling Conservative Party won a landslide victory and a large parliamentary majority in 2019 on the basis of then leader Boris Johnson’s promise to “Get Brexit Done” amid a plethora of lies about the benefits of such a move.

Sadly for the voters who swallowed the lies, the desolate landscape beyond Brexit has proved to be a massive disappointment. In surveys since 2022, the share of the population who regret Brexit has consistently been above 50 percent.

Which is why, less than five years later the Conservatives are 20 points behind opposition Labour and it is now certain they face a major drubbing in this year’s general election. Pundits are forecasting they may even become the third party, ending decades of a broadly two party choice as to who runs the country. The outcome of the July 4 election will be a disaster for the Conservatives. 

The new Labour government will likely then get to work undoing much of what the Conservatives did, particularly with regard to Brexit. My forecast is they will reforge Britians’ relationship with the European Union and try to set right other serious issues like public funding of the health service, education, prisons, infrastructure etc.

I’ll not go into the rest of Britain’s acute social, economic and funding problems but needless to say they are myriad. 

But I would point out that a single issue, like Taiwan’s with China, is one that has the potential to destroy a political party quickly. The KMT and TPP would be wise to bear this in mind and look outside their small bubble for some hints when it comes to conducting a wise and thoughtful administration. Not the thuggish and crazed techniques they seem to have setted on for the short term. 

They need to remember, the people have the final say and they do not. So crazed tantrums and fights in parliament have only a short shelf life. As the madness during the Trump post election insanity proved with the invasion of Capitol Hill, subsequent killings and hundreds of arrests in the United States. It failed. 

More mature democracies suffer from similar issues of inconsistent, wild and incoherent government. Taiwan is not alone in that regard. My hope is Taiwan learns from these other more mature democracies and takes note of their mistakes. 

But as I have often quoted in this publication. We never learn from history, muchless from other people. 

Tinkerty Tonk...

Kate and the dodgy photo...Brits still love her

Kate-Gate and the dodgy photo lays bare Britain’s social divide - but everyone still loves her

The Brits are a funny lot. They love moaning and ranting about their lot in life, not least the way the government runs the country, the cost of living and the degradation of the national health service. 

Yet they still have a deep and abiding love affair with the Royal Family. 

I still fail to fully understand the mindset of the land of my birth which continues to revere a family of misfits as much as it does. (fully disclosure - I have not lived or worked in the UK since I left nearly 30-years ago)

The recent stupidity of Buckingham Palace to publish a clearly photoshopped photo of Kate & Kids, which the world’s four main picture agencies quickly withdrew, was staggeringly inept given they have a small army of public relations people cleaning up after them on a 24/7 basis.

What were they thinking and just how asleep at the wheel was the Royal Families’ massive and tax funded public relations team when it was published? I wonder how many heads rolled over this? Particularly when you read about past UK heads of state, not that long ago who chopped off head with abandon, like Elisabeth I and Henry the Eighth.  

To put it in context, British taxpayers fork out around GBP 90 million a year from their hard-earned wages for this ‘service’ and be ruled over by a bunch of people who can’t even publish a family photo without screwing it up. 

At the same time as Kate is getting world class treatment, the National Health Service for ordinary people in the UK is on its knees and struggling to keep up with demand. Believe me, the public health service here in Taiwan is substantially better than in the UK.   

Is it arrogance or stupidity, or a bit of both? From my own centre-left standpoint, I’d say it’s a bit of both as in no way can you describe the United Kingdom as a classless society. In fact, if you Google  <is britain a classless society?> the top hit is  Wikipedia saying “The social structure of the United Kingdom has historically been highly influenced by the concept of social class, which continues to affect British society today.”

So there you have it. While no self-respecting journalist would ever use Wikipedia as a solid source, it makes the point that for all its boasts of equality, diversity and fairness, Britain is still a country in the grip of a deferential class structure where the upper echelons continue to rule the roost. The mystifying thing is, Mr Ordinary and Family seem to love them for it. 

I guess it is clear by now that I’m no fan of the Royal Family, or having King Charles sign off on any law the democratically elected parliament decides to make on behalf of the voting public. Nevertheless, this unelected, born into the job - I’m struggling for the right word here but let’s go with guffin - actually gets to sign off on any law the people of Britain are forced to abide by. 

If this all sounds stupid, it is.

Why let a family of privileged upper-class twerps who have never done a day’s work in their lives sign off on your laws you have to abide by?  

Consider the alternatives, like a President as head of state.

Now things get serious as a presidency can breed dictators. Putin a bit further west and further west Trump who is an embryo dictator if every I saw one,  should the American public be dumb enough to elect him again. To put this in context a Google search of <dictators> returns with Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, and Tojo. Four guys who did their level best to destroy the planet and in doing so, killed hundreds of millions of people. 

Talk of dictators may sound extreme eighty years on from World War II as the carnage of that drops out of living memory as our surviving war heros succumb to peaceful old age and death. But we are currently living in a world where similar madmen could soon be influencing our lives.

The lunacy of the right-wing in the UK and Europe with its anti-foreigner, anti-immigration agenda, to the outright unbalanced Trump supporters who apparently trust a proven corrupt criminal to run the most powerful country on the planet beggars belief. I’m still amazed I still meet supposedly intelligent Taiwanese people who think Trump would defend Taiwan. Of course he would not and would roll over to Xi if it suited him.  

A reminder from Fox News -  Speaking to US Fox News, Trump described Xi as an exceptionally intelligent individual who governs China’s population of 1.4 billion people with “iron” authority.

“Think of President Xi. Central casting, brilliant guy. You know, when I say he’s brilliant, everyone says, ‘Oh that’s terrible',” said Trump. “Well, he runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect. There’s nobody in Hollywood like this guy.”

During his four years in the White House, Trump was also known for praising such leaders as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while largely reserving scorn for the US’ traditional allies such as the French and Canadian leaders. 

This is why I get so depressed when I hear Taiwanese supporting this fraud on the simplistic assumption he would stand up to Xi over Taiwan simply because he called China out on trade. 

Without going into the gory details of past Presidential dictators, or current ones - a full list here - https://planetrulers.com/current-dictators/

It is clear no political system is perfect as presidents go bad, just as often as other heads of state have gone bad over history. 

For Taiwan, a President the people were smart enough to elect who come from a poor background and is the son of a coal miner puts the country in good hands for the time being. I was worried for a while when other candidates with clear dictator-like tendencies were in the running but the bulk of fair minded and sensible people chose the right individual. 

Which gets us back to the dimwits who make up the Royal Family in the United Kingdom.

I’d much prefer a jug-eared upper class twerp who barely knows what he’s doing signing off on laws set by an elected government than a known dictator, like the one next door.

Tinkerty tonk...