Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Houdini the Fei Fei - doomed by official incompetence

(中文在下方)
Sadly for Houdini the Fei Fei, Taiwan’s famous escape artist and fugitive, his days on the run came to an abrupt end last week in a maelstrom of official misunderstanding and incompetence.

Alec Issigonis, designer of the Mini car in 1959, famously said, “A camel is a horse designed by committee.” The Mini became one of the most successful cars of all time.

So he knew a thing or two about design and outcomes. 

Sadly, the simple task of a capture of an escaped Baboon was organised by a committee of local officials. 

The miserable demise of Houdini who was shot to death in a rural homestead by an overzealous hunter acting on behalf of the local council, has been mourned across the country. It is a timely reminder that we are effectively governed on many levels by incompetents. 

There will, of course, be an inquiry, but it is obvious that the myriad people involved in the hunt were not communicating properly with each other. There was no clear chain of command, instructions as to the required outcome were not passed down and confusion reigned for days before the tragic outcome.  

Compounding all this was the unseemly rush to claim credit for Houdini’s capture to the extent of congratulatory selfies being taken over his dead body as he lay sadly curled up in a net, presumably bleeding out.

These were soon replaced by pictures of officials bowing in apology over Houdini’s flower-draped ‘coffin’. What an unedifying display of official self-aggrandisement one minute, quickly replaced with an admission of utter uselessness on the other. 

Poor Houdini never really stood a chance against these buffoons who were apparently more interested in their own image than they were in a positive outcome in terms of both public safety and the interests of a member of a non-native animal far from its natural home. 

Unfortunately there is a deficiency of analytical thinking skills across all levels of officialdom which never ceases to depress us all. It does, of course, also exist in the commercial world but at least there incompetent people tend to be weeded out more quickly as the level of accountability tends to be much higher. Companies just can’t survive if staff are ineffective.

I was a director of a small company which was an offshoot of the multinational company I worked for and believe me, the Director’s Responsibility Manual is huge. It contains legal requirements on behaviour and you can end up in court if you are negligent or slipshod in the role.    
 
Sadly for us taxpayers, a lot of officials, particularly at lower levels of the administration are more able to more easily hide in the herd of those around them, much like Wildebeest and shoal fish seek safety in numbers to confuse and baffle predators. 

Ministers and Heads of Departments resign and take ultimate responsibility when something goes wrong on their particular patch. Take the Puyuma train crash in 2018 when Minister of Communications Wu Hongmou resigned two months after the incident. From what I have read about the disaster many of Wu’s underlings were held accountable for the incident but he rightly resigned because he was in charge when it happened, although he was not directly involved in it’s cause. 

That said, the trend of stepping up, taking responsibility, being accountable and acting ethically is ebbing away and I hope this does not happen in Taiwan, although I fear it will given the more unscrupulous actions of some politicians in the recent past. As I have written before some are taking their lead from the likes of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson who brazenly dish out blame for failure to anyone but themselves. 

A phrase far more prevalent in the UK media recently has been “Mr A pushes Mr B under a  bus”. Which is generally applied to a politician who has dumped blame on an underling for a mistake they were ultimately accountable for.

After Prime Minister Liz Truss made a huge mistake in pushing for massive tax cuts the country could not afford crashed financial markets and was forced into an embarrassing U-turn, she simply blamed Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng, and refused to take responsibility. 

“Truss throws Kwasi Kwarteng under a bus” shouted the Evening Standard newspaper front page the same day. Truss resigned soon after, but nevertheless she tried to shift the blame to Kwerteng in an attempt to survive.

Does former president Trump throw people under a bus to avoid being accountable? Just ask his former lawyer, Rudy Giuliani who is facing a $2.7 billion lawsuit for defending Trump’s conspiracy theories over vote rigging during the 2020 election. Or his former fixer and lawyer, Michael Cohen who is currently giving evidence to the grand jury investigating the former president after doing three years in prison for Trump related crimes.   

It’s all part of the post-truth and lack of accountability era we live in and I would hate to see that infection gaining a larger foothold on these shores.

Errors of judgement have always happened and will continue to happen. There are names for it. In Britain and America it is commonly known as Murphy’s Law which holds that anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. (It is really an aphorism but is attributed to many different people).

In military slang S.N.A.F.U (Situation Normal - All F**ked Up, or more politely Situation Normal - All Fouled Up) is defined in the dictionary as meaning a situation marked by errors or confusion.

In the commercial world I inhabited for most of my career, goals were clearly set and thought given to how to achieve that goal and various ‘owners’ assigned for the various stages involved who were accountable for their part and also the end result. The overall project would have a single ‘owner’ who would be accountable for the outcome, be it positive or negative.   

You have to wonder, when you look at the apparent chaotic way some politicians and officials approach problems, whether they are lazy, do not care, or more interested in covering their tracks in case there is a S.N.A.F.U.

狒狒胡迪尼的啟示:官方無能造成的悲劇

2023 年 3 月 31 日 597 人閱讀

胡迪尼(Harry Houdini, 1874-1926)是一位匈牙利裔美國魔術師和特技演員,以逃脫表演而流傳後世,我們姑且把最近不幸在台灣辭世的狒狒取名為胡迪尼。

逃脫藝術家狒狒胡迪尼最近佔據了台灣網路和媒體的版面,給人們在無趣的日常中帶來許多歡樂。但在官方誤解與無能的漩渦中,最後胡迪尼跑進桃園一間民宅,被自述為受僱於一個地方政府的獵人槍殺。

胡迪尼戲劇性的離世在台灣引起廣泛的震驚和哀悼,在我看來,這是一個及時的提醒:在許多層面上,我們都只是被無能者治理,而且他們爭相推諉責任。

群體決策可能的盲點

1959年Mini的設計師依斯哥尼斯(Alec Issigonis)有句名言:駱駝是委員會設計的馬(A camel is a horse designed by a committee)。意思是委員會常常將太多相互衝突或缺乏經驗的意見,納入單項計劃之中,精準批評了群體決策以及抽象或無關的管理主義。Mini是有史以來最成功的汽車之一。

胡迪尼死亡事件當然會有個調查,也會有個結論到底這是如何發生的,但很明顯參與尋找胡迪尼的無數人,彼此之間應該沒有好好的溝通,沒有明確的指揮鏈與指引,或是關於預計結果所需的指示,從來沒有清楚下達。可以想見悲劇發生之前的幾天裡,混亂一直存在。

讓這一切雪上加霜的是,胡迪尼被尋穫後,官員急於聲稱那是自己的功勞,以至於當胡迪尼可憐地蜷縮在一張網中時,可能正在大量流血的他竟然成為自拍的目標。

而這些炫耀的自拍,很快就被官員們向胡迪尼棺材獻花行禮的照片取代了;前一分鐘得意洋洋自我膨脹,下一分鐘灰頭土臉完全無用。

可憐的胡迪尼從未真正有機會與這些小丑對抗,這些小丑顯然對自己的形象更感興趣,他們不在乎公共安全,或是那些遠離自然家園的非本土動物。

各級官場都缺乏分析的思維能力,真是令人感到沮喪。當然這也存在於商業世界,但至少在商業世界,不稱職的人往往會很快被淘汰,因為這些公司對責任的要求往往比較高,因為如果員工效率低下,公司將無法生存。

我曾經是一家小公司的董事,那是路透社的一家當地分支機構,相信我,董事的責任手冊非常厚,包含對所有行為的法律要求。如果你在這個角色中疏忽或馬虎,最終可能會上法庭。

低階官員極易躲藏在人群中

對我們納稅人來說可悲的是,許多官員,尤其是級別較低的政府官員,更容易隱藏在他們周圍的人群中,就像牛羚和淺灘魚為了避免捕食者,就躲藏在大數量的同類中來尋求庇護。

出現問題時,通常部長和部門負責人辭職並承擔最終責任。我搜尋到的資料顯示在 2018 年,台灣交通部長吳宏謀在普悠瑪火車事故發生兩個月後辭職。 2021年太魯閣號出軌事件後,交通部長林佳龍一樣辭職。這些辭職是正確的,因為他們在事故發生時負責,儘管他沒有直接參與事故的起因。

正如我之前多次所寫,目前我們看見的是挺身而出、承擔責任、問責和道德行事的趨勢,正在世界各地漸漸消退。例如美國前總統川普(Donald Trump)和英國前首相強生(Boris Johnson),他們總是厚顏無恥地將失敗的責任推給除了他們自己以外的任何人。我希望這不會在台灣發生,但是鑑於最近一些政客肆無忌憚的行為,我想台灣也躲不過。

最近在英國媒體很流行的一句話是:A先生將B先生推到公共汽車輪下。這適用於將責任歸咎於下屬的政客,而需要要為錯誤負責的其實是他們。

政客常將其他人扔到公共汽車輪下

例如英國前首相特拉斯(Liz Truss)在推動大規模減稅方面犯下巨大錯誤,導致金融市場無法承受幾近崩潰,接著被迫陷入尷尬的政策大轉彎,然而她指責財政部長克瓦騰(Kwasi Kwarteng),拒絕承擔責任。

晚報頭條是:特拉斯將克瓦騰扔到一輛公共汽車輪下!之後特拉斯很快就辭職了,但她仍然試圖將責任推給克瓦騰,以求在日後在政壇繼續生存。

美國前總統川普會把人扔到公共汽車下以避免被追究責任嗎? 問問他的前律師朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani) 就知道了。他因為川普在 2020 年大選期間操縱選票的陰謀論辯護,現在正面臨 27 億美元的訴訟。或者他的前經紀人和律師科恩(Michael Cohen),他因與川普有關的罪行被判入獄三年後,目前正在向調查川普的大陪審團提供證據。

這都是我們生活的後真相和缺乏問責制時代的一部分,我不願意看到這種感染在台灣獲得更大的立足點。

然而判斷錯誤一直都在發生,而且還會繼續發生。在英國和美國被稱為墨菲定律(Murphy’s Law),這個定律認為任何可能出錯的事情,都會出錯。

在我職業生涯的大部分時間裡,我都生活在商業世界中,工作上明確設定了目標,必須考慮如何實現該目標,並為所涉及的各個階段分配了各種負責任的人,他們必須對自己的職責和最終結果負責,無論是正面或是負面的結果。

在軍事俚語中,S.N.A.F.U(Situation Normal – All F**ked Up,或比較禮貌的 Situation Normal – All Fouled Up)字面上的翻譯是一切正常,但其實全都搞砸了,意思是天翻地覆的混亂狀況。

你不得不懷疑,當你看到一些政客和官員處理問題的明顯混亂方式時,他們是否懶惰不關心,或者其實他們只是想要掩蓋他們的留下的踪跡不要被察覺,以防萬一出現 S.N.A.F.U.

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