A contact of mine working for the United Nations in Europe sent me the following ‘joke’ email which is currently doing the rounds in diplomatic circles.
The Subject line on the email is Putin's Genius. (My additions to the original adding context are in italics are for the benefit of the reader)
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✅ He united Ukraine
✅ He caused that Ukraine got armed with weapons from the West
✅ He managed to unite the West on a scale not seen since the end of the IIWW
✅ He managed to empower the Eastern flank of NATO
✅ He managed to make a World Hero out of a comedian and created a Statesman out of him
✅ He managed to eliminate Russia from almost every international sport event
✅ He managed to bury the Russian stock exchange
✅ He managed to closed down Nord Stream 2 (a system of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany)
✅ He managed to bring Ukraine to becoming a member of the EU
✅ He caused that President Duda (of Poland) is praised by the whole World (rightfully so); making him one of the closest allies of (Ukraine’s) President Zelenskyy (they speak daily)
✅ He managed to throw Russia out of the Swift system (Swift is an international organisation facilitating transactions between banks)
✅ He managed to freeze his own accounts and those of his oligarch friends
✅ He made Switzerland drop its neutral position made Sweden and Finland think of finally joining NATO
✅ He made Germany change their approach to Russia by 180 degrees
Genius !! Absolute genius , he knows how to enter the history books ….
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In my decades working as a journalist for an international news agency, I came to highly respect diplomats and I have to admit there is a close affinity and much contact between the two groups. Diplomats are often the unsung heroes when it comes to sorting out bad situations and to my mind are seldom given proper credit. Politicians tend to hog all the limelight.
That light hearted email circulating amongst diplomats is telling and has, in fact, encouraged me to write this piece pointing out that the massive downside to Putin’s actions may make China think again about invading Taiwan by force. If it thinks there would be few repercussions it should look at the sanctions being levied against Russia now which are far more severe than anyone expected.
For decades, China has conveniently ‘forgotten’ or ignored the wording of agreements they have signed, for decades it has rode roughshod over far less powerful nations in the South China Sea, for years it has bullied other nations by dint of its economic strength. Diplomats and politicians have been well aware of this behaviour and decided that to ignore it is better for the greater good, but at the same time would have been working on plans to counter it, if the need arises.
As a self confessed fan of the diplomatic community, perhaps I overestimate their perception and ability to plan forward, but I doubt it. In the course of my 30+ career as a journalist I have stood in rooms filled with diplomats and politicians, believe me, the diplomats were the smartest ones. Maybe because they realised that being a senior diplomat is a far better lifestyle than being a politician, plus the fact you have real power to influence outcomes in a sensible way.
As the invasion of Ukraine by Russia drags into its second week, it appears fairly clear that things are not going as quickly, or as well, as Putin had envisaged and his expectations of a quick and relatively bloodless invasion have been dashed. Stories of him ‘fuming’ at the military and instructions to use internationally illegal weapons would seem to back this perception up, although it is impossible to get to the truth in the fog of war we are all witnessing.
The strength of the international sanctions has come as a surprise and seem to be getting more acute as the days go by. Even famously neutral Switzerland, which clung to its neutrality throughout the near apocalypse of WWII, felt compelled to sanction Russia five days into the war. I can’t help thinking that if Russia had walked into Ukraine easily in a couple of days, Switzerland would not have acted as they did.
All this must be giving China pause for thought when it comes to Taiwan. Its overflying by fighter jets on almost a daily basis in the past months and war-like rhetoric from various generals and government officials, now perhaps looks like they have under-estimated the global mood of democratic countries not willing to let powerful nations run rough-shod over weaker ones.
Particularly in Europe with Germany and in Asia with Japan, history amply demonstrates that you need to be wary of those who would attack and bully and be afraid of the politics behind such moves. The world has learned, and China needs to take note as it eyes Taiwan.
Add to this the fact Taiwan is part of the United States front line of defence against potential aggression from China and forms part of a long chain of defence agreements south across the Pacific with various other nations from Japan and The Philippines to Australia.
Leading any potential military threat to Taiwan would be, of course, the United States. It would have to look at the Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96-8, 22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.) put in pace in 1979 when the US recognised China rather than Taiwan.
When you look through the act a few things jump out at you.
“To declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern” is one such, as is “Clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means."
Also, “To consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.”
This is all on top of the ongoing commitment “To provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character”. It is designed “To maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”
Aside from the US commitment to protecting Taiwan, if there has been global condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is bound to be an acute reaction to any military moves against Taiwan by China and in such a case, heavy global sanctions against China like we have seen against Russia will be something it must now be taking into consideration.
If China is looking at Taiwan in the same way Russia looked at Ukraine when it made its unprovoked invasion for perceived historical reasons…it perhaps now has to think again.
Tinkerty Tonk...
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