Monday, March 13, 2023
立法院
學歷
Sunday, March 5, 2023
Jimmy Carter - a peanut farmer's legacy
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| Deng Xiaoping meets Carter in 1979 |
Submariner, peanut farmer, civil rights champion and Nobel prize winner Jimmy Carter was the 39th President of the United States and a key player in the dramatic 1978 geopolitical switch in Sino-American relations, which left Taiwan on the outside.
The lifelong democrat and humanitarian is now 98 and in hospice care, his race almost run.
Carter’s legacy and his deal to officially recognise China after the communists took control, plus his subsequent role in building the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979 is a legacy all of us on this small Pacific island live with to this day.
Known as the ‘Charlie Brown of American politics’ because of his connection to peanuts, Carter inherited Sino-American rapprochement from the Ping-pong diplomacy of the early 1970s which lead to 37th President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 and eventually the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and China under Carter.
Hitherto, the US had considered China as an aggressor after its support of North Korea during the 1950-1953 Korean War, and, more importantly, was supporting democracy over communism. Likewise, in 1955 the US waded into Vietnam to prevent the spread of communism, although it is notable that the Vietnam War ended in 1975, pretty much at the same time as America was seeking to normalise their relationship with communist China.
I have often wondered whether the rapprochement in Sino-American relations seen during the 1970s was based on a feeling by the US that the embarrassment of losing the Vietnam War persuaded them that diplomacy was better than war and that diplomatic containment of China was the better option.
Small comfort to the fact the Korean and Vietnam Wars killed around two million people each if you include all military and civilian deaths. Let’s not forget thousands of wounded, scared and displaced.
On China’s side there was perhaps the same feeling, in as much as losing 180,000 Chinese infantrymen to US artillery and support of the North Korean regime was of little or no benefit to China. Maybe it was better to embrace the world and its markets to build wealth and improve the lives of its population, rather than fighting wars on the basis of a belief in a political regime.
It would appear that over the course of two proxy wars based mainly on ideology, both China and the US came to terms with the futility of it, and decided diplomacy was a better option.
Remembering, of course, that the Cold War with Russia after World War II, and the subject of nearly all spy and James Bond movies at the time, was about a clash of ideologies, ergo, communism vs democracy and not about territorial/economic gain.
Carter’s China visit on January 29, 1979, coincided with Deng Xiaoping’s rise to power and his huge and strategic market-economy reforms which led to him being known as "Architect of Modern China". During my time in Beijing as Reuters Editor for North Asia, I often commented to my friends abroad that it didn’t seem like I was living in a totalitarian communist dictatorship, but in a capitalist society.
Deng managed to create this and subsequently the fear of the spread of communism from China bleed away and the west relaxed enough to establish diplomatic relations, leaving Taiwan to one side as there were bigger geopolitical, and more important at the time, economic issues to worry about.
Which is why Taiwan finds itself in its current ridiculous diplomatic impasse. China insisted that as part of the deal, the US cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and both sides were more interested in what the deal could bring in terms of money and economic advantage. Taiwan’s standing in the world became a “Ah well, I’m sure we can sort that out later.”
Perhaps with a closer eye on ideology than economics, Republicans at the time were angry with the deal and in April 1979, US lawmakers passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which gave Taiwan nearly the same status as any other nation recognized by the United States. It also ensured that arms sales to Taiwan continued.
In place of the U.S. Embassy in Taiwan, an “unofficial” representative, called the American Institute in Taiwan, would continue to serve U.S. interests there. Over forty years later, little has changed and the architect of the situation is currently close to the end of his life.
While this historical background seems not to have changed too much over the decades, the one thing, to my mind, that has changed, is the Chinese administration. While I was working as a journalist in Beijing I was regularly taken to task by the Foreign Ministry about stories we had written and there was aggression towards foreign correspondents.
I left China as Xi Jinping took over and it is clear his regime is less tolerant of foreign journalists and the administration is more belligerent in the wider field of diplomacy than previous executives.
Therein lies Taiwan’s problem. On the one hand there is a powerful ally, the United States, bound by law to help and that has not changed. On the other hand there is a more aggressive and more nationalistic administration on the mainland.
Indeed, America has recently added to its original 1979 Taiwan act to include other issues. You can view this at this US government website Taiwan Policy Act 2022 but you need to scroll down to find the additions made in 2022.
As a “Major Non-NATO Ally” Taiwan can likely rely on being treated muchlike Ukraine, should they be invaded by a neighboring power. I have purposely avoided the use of ‘superpower’ as Russia has proved it is not, given its failures in Ukraine. The perception that China is a ‘superpower’ is likely also incorrect considering likely reality vs perception.
Which leaves those of us living in Taiwan and enjoying the sunny days presaging a balmy spring and summer wondering what to expect. For those of us who can vote the decision is clear.
The forthcoming presidential election is a single issue election given what has happened in Ukraine and NATO’s reaction to it. Taiwan has leapt to the top of the global news agenda in countries where hitherto the bulk of the population had never really heard of Taiwan, muchless thought about its position in the world.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, the world has become much more aware of Taiwan’s plight and from what I read in the world’s free press the broad consensus is on Taiwan’s side. This has empowered the west to show more overt support of Taiwan, evidenced by high profile visits from the likes of the 52nd speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi last year.
Taiwan is high up in the global mindset, the world is more Taiwan aware, and diplomats see being on Taiwan’s side as backing democracy vs communism and perhaps heading off desperately sad situations such as that which is fast developing in Hong Kong.
Looking at the diplomatic turbulent history, and the sad and lonely battle Taiwan has endured from China’s bullying in the past years as fighter jets invade our airspace and ‘military war games’ threaten our very borders, I worry about how the electorate will vote in the 2024 election.
The next election has but a single issue - relations with China.
A KMT administration would undoubtedly be more favourable towards closer ties with China, that is a given and something all voters need to understand.
If this democracy votes KMT and therefore for closer ties with China I can see diplomats around the world, including those of Taiwan’s greatest allies thinking. “Ah well, they have democratically voted for closer ties with China so let’s not bother so much and spend money and effort to help protect the. It would seem they are OK with China taking them over.”
There are, of course, other factors like Taiwan’s strategic position militarily in the US Pacific defense lines put in place after World War II, but if the population ostensibly votes for closer ties with China in a fully democratic election, the diplomats pushing for Taiwan to even hold its own in the world may well reduce their efforts and give it up as a lost cause.
After all, they may say, they have democratically voted for it….so be it.
Tinkerty tonk...
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Terry Kuo - Taiwan's Joke politician
中文在最下方
If you don’t find Terry Kuo funny, you have no sense of humour.
This strutting buffoon plays his role as one of Taiwan’s leading joke politicians so well that part of me hopes he sticks around a while longer. If he wasn’t so politically dim as to be potentially dangerous for Taiwan if he gets any real power, that is.
His latest drivel had me chuckling, as it again reminded me of the kind of pompous and arrogant Chinese rhetoric we have heard over the years. It is also akin to the kind of gaslighting China is a past-master at, like the “When did patient zero begin in the US?” from Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian in a now-infamous tweet. “It might be the U.S. army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”
Absurd, yes, but that is Terry Kuo all over. His latest piece of colossal overstatement and rather sad gaslighting attempt being “The self-righteous goodwill of the DPP government is leading the people to a dark hell where it is multi difficult to even eat an egg.”
I mean, it’s not even good gaslighting. His minders should really have a word with him to raise his game.
Aside from not being true, as there are eggs to be had without too much difficulty, no one is in a “Dark Hell” because they didn’t get their breakfast egg. It’s clownish in its absurdity because the overstatement is akin to the big red nose, huge yellow curly wig, massive shoes and baggy striped trousers that Coco usually wears to make the children laugh.
Take a look at the UK where bird flu has also created a bit of a shortage of eggs and supermarket racks are devoid of certain vegetables. The shortages - which are affecting Ireland too - are largely the result of extreme weather in Spain and north Africa, where floods, snow and hail have affected harvests. Yep, really nothing to do with the government and politicians and the media are saying that.
Contrast that with news that Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu and the country’s top security people are in Washington for a meeting with US officials. The local press lead with Kuo’s eggs nonsense and not the more vital issues that keep us all safe from oppression.
To directly quote the Foxconn Wikipedia page. “While headquartered in Taiwan, the company earns the majority of its revenue from assets in mainland China.
Speaking of vegetables, pea-brain Terry wants to pitch again for the presidential nomination. Having thrown a toddler-like tantrum the last time the KMT decided not to go with him, when he threw his toys out of his pram and stalked away to sulk for a few years, he seems to think he’s in for another shot.
If the KMT are smart (no guarantees there I guess) they will ignore this political has-been.
Kuo revealed he had once been instructed by the sea goddess Mazu in a dream to run as a candidate in the 2020 presidential election…So she would approve if he just retired to somewhere nice on the coast and went fishing all day. (Hey, Terry…the thin bit of the rod points towards the sea…you hold the thick end.)
Tinkerty Tonk…
如果你不覺得郭台銘有趣，那你就沒有幽默感。
這個大搖大擺的小丑，把台灣主要政治笑話的角色之一演得很好，我希望他能多待一陣子，前提是如果他在政治上不至於獲得任何實權，然後對台灣構成潛在危險的話。
他最近的胡說八道讓我咯咯地笑了起來，因為這再次讓我想起了多年來聽到的那種華而不實、傲慢自大的中國言論。類似於中國過去擅長的那種煤氣燈效應，比如「美國什麼時候開始出現零號病人？」這句話來自中國外交部發言人趙立堅的推文。「可能是美軍把疫情帶到了武漢。」
荒謬嗎？的確，但那就是目前看到的郭台銘。他最新誇張且相當可悲的煤氣燈效應煽動手段是：「民進黨政府自以為是的善意，何嘗不是把老百姓帶往連吃一顆蛋都困難重重的黑暗地獄當中？」
我想說的是，這甚至不是很好的煤氣燈效應！他的幕僚們真的應該把他拉到一邊提醒他一下，以提高他參賽的水準。
除了雞蛋不是困難重重才能吃到，根本不會有人會因為早餐沒吃到雞蛋就陷入「黑暗地獄」。這種荒謬可笑，就像是小丑戴著大紅鼻子、黃色捲曲假髮、笨重的鞋子和寬鬆條紋褲，他們通常穿戴這些來逗孩子們笑。
看看英國，那裡的禽流感也造成了雞蛋短缺，超市貨架上連蔬菜也沒有。 短缺也影響到愛爾蘭，主要原因還有西班牙和北非的極端天氣，洪水、雪和冰雹影響了收成。是的，真的與政府無關，英國的政治人物和媒體一致同意。
在台灣與雞蛋新聞形成鮮明對比的是，台灣外交部長吳釗燮和高層國安人員正在華盛頓與美國官員會面。然而台灣媒體卻是大篇幅報導郭的雞蛋胡說八道，關心的程度遠超過這個對我們所有人更重要的台美議題。
我查了一下富士康的維基百科頁面：雖然總部位於台灣，該公司的大部分收入來自中國的資產。 嗯，我一直很喜歡 FoxConn 這個名字的諷刺意味，因為 con 在英文裡的意思。
言歸正傳說到蔬菜，我就想到一個英文的形容詞 pea-brain，是用來形容很笨的人。這個豌豆腦上次因為國民黨決定不提名他，他就像蹣跚學步的孩子一樣大發脾氣，把玩具從嬰兒車裡扔出來，然後大步走開。悶氣生了幾年後，他好像認為他的機會又來了。
如果國民黨很聰明（我猜這無法保證），他們應該忽略這種政治上的過去式。我們等著瞧吧。
郭台銘說過，他曾在夢中得到媽祖的指點，要他參選2020總統大選。我想如果他退休後到海邊的某個好地方整天去釣魚，媽祖應該會同意，不過媽祖可能會指點他：嘿，Terry，釣竿比較細的一端要指向大海，你應該握住比較粗的那一端。
掰掰。
Tuesday, January 3, 2023
Political Belligerence
The Post-Truth era, in which we all now exist, it seems we have to also get used to a heightened level of political aggression and game-playing. Politicians are apparently happy to take greater risks with outright lies, half-truths, misdirection and gaslighting.
In my four decades of writing about politics in many different countries, I can’t remember a time when shameless dishonesty was so rife. Sadly, many seem to be getting away with it and like a child with a new toy are delighting in it as it appears to make little, or no, difference to their political standing.
It seems like a revelation to them, and they are revelling in it. It has emboldened some to behave as they like and take even greater political risks with their lies.
"All is fair in love, war and politics", is a much used proverb when discussing the machinations which go on in the political world. While deeply cynical, it is nonetheless at least partly true.
Look at former US president Donald Trump. His litany of years of lies and bad behaviour - not least the Big-Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him - has gradually descended into unbalanced ravings. His call for the US Constitution to be torn up so he can be simply reinstalled into the White House, is as outrageous as it is mindblowing.
Happily his antics look like they are finally backfiring on him and President Biden now leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 47 percent to 40 percent. Plus, Two-thirds of Republican and Republican leaning voters want Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to run for President in 2024. (Personally I’m not sure which one is worse, but that’s another matter.)
But such behaviour has emboldened the likes of Republican Kari Lake to flatly refuse to accept she lost the 2022 Arizona governor race to Democrat Katie Hobbs, a move which led one US publican to describe her as the “saddest dead-ender” and someone who has “doubled down on a losing bet: election denial.”
There are others like gun-toting Republican Colorado representative Lauren Boebert, notorious for fueling anti-LGBTQ+ bigotry, support for the Big-Lie and being an insurrectionist sympathiser. Likewise Georgia Republican representative the crazy Marjorie Taylor Greene with her Space Lasers, Political Murders, and Muslims Taking Over America. All truly bizarre stuff if you can be bothered to check into what exactly she said.
Take the brutish Boris Johnson in the UK. His bravado and disdain for the public led to him telling lie after lie, a strategy which eventually caught up with him and he was deposed as leader of the ruling Conservatives. He is still under investigation by a Commons committee over whether he misled the UK Parliament.
Again, this has bred contempt for the truth with Secretary of State Michael Gove claiming the UK had secured GBP800 billion in “new free trade deals'' since leaving the European Union.
Which is a blatant misrepresentation of the facts because the bulk of this figure is not “new” trade and he has since been reprimanded by The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) which has warned the ruling Conservatives that they should provide sources for such figures in the future.
These are just recent examples of shameless dishonesty in politics which have ‘come home to roost’ but it is nevertheless a worrying trend that such outrageous behaviour is on the rise and lying is becoming ‘part of the political game’.
It’s easy to identify such trends here in Taiwan with some politicians feeling it is OK to ape some of the more outrageous behaviour we are witnessing abroad. That’s not to say it is anything new, but it does seem such practices are on the rise.
For example Terry Guo who has said Taiwanese people have no choice of which Covid vaccine they have, which is a clear lie. He also said the Government didn’t care whether people lived or died during the pandemic which I would class as not only a lie but also the dirtiest of political game playing. Of course the government cares whether people live or die.
While the atrocious behaviour of the likes of Trump and Johnson did catch up with them in the end, it nevertheless propelled them to power in the first place and for a while afterwards they made political capital out of it.
Politics is a dirty business, and, like boxing, is aggressive, confrontational and sometimes nasty but should be played to a set of rules. Outright lies, misdirection and gaslighting should play no part in a civilised society.
Which brings us to the opposite situation. What happens when politicians act in a decent way, are broadly honest and try to behave in a respectful way towards voters? The answer is they tend to lose out to those who think they can behave badly and break the unwritten rules and maybe even appear to be weak.
There really needs to be an element of fighting fire with fire, with lies quickly called out just as aggressively as they were told in the first place. That is not something I see happening often in Taiwan. The government response to recent outrageous comments have been left unanswered for hours, sometimes days by which time the lie, or comment, is planted firmly in people’s minds and it is too late.
Winston Churchill once said “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.”
At least responding to that lie quickly lessens its impact and maybe stops it in its tracks. Waiting hours to come back with a rebuttal is simply not good politics.
It’s also noticeable that the current administration appears not to think too hard about the way they deliver their messages. An excellent example of this is their latest budget announcement on Facebook.
It led with TWD111 billion to pay back government debt and towards the end it announced TWD577.3 billion more local government spending and more cash for education, infrastructure, defence and environment.
This was a golden opportunity to lead with the good news of more spending on all the things people care about and push the budget payback to the bottom, or even not have it as part of the highlights at all. It would have been the smart way to handle it politically.
But it backfired hugely as people latched on to the relatively small 111 billion figure and likely didn’t even read down far enough to find the much bigger 577.3 billion figure before they waded in with criticism. It even broke the first rule of journalism which is to lead with the bigger more important figure.
That’s just one example but it’s fairly typical of the DPP and its somewhat passive approach to politics. Plus, the opposition parties are far more aggressive and emboldened in the Post-Truth era by the behaviour they see tolerated elsewhere in the world.
With a presidential election just over a year away the current administration should perhaps think harder about their apparently relaxed and passive stance on the political battlefield and take a close, hard look at the way they make better political capital out of their successes.
Tinkerty Tonk...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
A familiar pang
(中文在下方)
Sadly, I felt the all too familiar pang of disappointment yesterday at the DPP’s poor showing at the local elections, although I felt more sorry for the cat who was curled up on the sofa and unusually quiet as the results rolled in.
I am no stranger to such disappointment, coming as I do from an innately conservative country where the ‘establishment’ has been building on itself for hundreds of years.
In the UK it is the establishment of the rich and titled, public school educated so called elite. In Taiwan it is the KMT and those used to wielding power during the troubled times of Martial Law and in the years after as that rich and privileged strata of society retained power by dint of influence and money.
So there tends to be a strong demographic at work as the older generation generally display a deference to the establishment, for whatever reason, which is something I have never understood but is nevertheless true. One essential in Taiwan is to lower the voting age to eighteen, but, of course, the establishment will resist this.
The cat and I went to the polling place early yesterday and judging by the number of older people voting and several wheelchairs, my first comment was that it did not look good for the DPP.
The turnout was low which is no surprise as these local votes, like the local elections in the UK or the midterms in the US, do not spark as much enthusiasm as they should, but that is a fact of life and something you need to accept.
That said, voter apathy among young people is an ongoing issue with many disillusioned with older generation politics and a sense of helplessness, or just a lack of interest, leads to them just not bothering to vote. This is a global problem and Taiwan is no different to many other democracies. I’m personally in favour of mandatory voting although even those countries which have it seldom enforce it vigorously. Australia being perhaps the most famous of these.
I’ve had my fair share of disappointment with the stupidity of Brexit and the Brits voting a classic establishment figure like Boris Johnson into office with a huge majority. Both of which I found profoundly depressing.
Whether voting for the establishment is caused by dogma, habit, or peer pressure the only thing to do is keep interested, get out and vote and don’t allow setbacks reduce your enthusiasm to keep the establishment orthodoxy on the backfoot.
Tinkerty Tonk...
其實想想是蠻令人悲傷的，我對民進黨在地方選舉中的糟糕表現，幾乎感到一種非常熟悉的失望之痛。不過我家那頭蜷縮在沙發上看電視，並且在開票結果不斷更新時異常安靜的貓，應該感到更加難過。
我對這種失望並不陌生，因為我來自一個天生保守的國家，那裡的“建制派”已經建立了數百年。在英國，它是富人、有頭銜、受過公立學校教育的所謂菁英體系。在台灣，那是國民黨和那些習慣於在戒嚴的困難時期，以及之後的歲月中掌握權力的人，他們因為財富和特權，靠著影響力和金錢保留了權力。
因此無論出於何種原因，從年齡層來看，老一代通常都表現出對所謂“建制派”的尊重，這是我從未理解但仍然是事實的現實。這次投票，台灣的一項重要改變是將投票年齡降至 18 歲，但當然，建制派會抵制這一做法。
我們投票當天一大早就去了投票站，從投票所外的老年人和幾個輪椅來看，我的第一評論是，這對民進黨來說不太好。
投票率低並不奇怪，因為地方性的選舉，如英國的地方選舉或美國的期中選舉，並不會激發選民應有的熱情，這是事實，也是你需要接受的。
這也就是說，年輕人對投票冷漠是一個持續存在的問題，許多人對老一輩的政治感到失望，無助感或缺乏興趣，導致他們根本懶得去投票。 這是一個全球性問題，台灣與許多其他民主國家沒有什麼不同。 我個人贊成強制投票，不過即使有強制投票的國家也很少大力執行，澳洲可能是其中最著名的。
我對英國脫歐的愚蠢行為，還有英國選民以絕大多數票，將像強生這樣的經典建制人物推上權力高峰感到失望，這兩件事都讓我感到非常沮喪。
無論投票給建制派是因為長久以來的信條、習慣還是同輩壓力造成的，你唯一必須做的就是保持興趣，去投票，不要讓挫折降低你的熱情，這樣才能讓建制派的傳統處於落後地位。
Saturday, November 26, 2022
For Sale
For Sale
