Ukraine is the world’s top story at the moment as it awaits the next move by the Russian aggressor, and while it is a very different country to Taiwan, there are striking similarities between the two in terms of external pressures from a bullying neighbour and the factors behind that aggression.
Both share a group of countries around the world they can class as staunch friends, almost allies. The old saying of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ holds true in both cases with countries who do not view China or Russia in a very good light.
Both have historical ties to their adversary but are out-gunned and out-numbered by them and both have a staunch determination to not be subject to another’s authority.
It is certainly not unreasonable for anyone living in Taiwan to be watching the Ukraine situation closely and draw some observations and lessons from it. As a journalist, drawing comparisons is somewhat of a mixed blessing, it helps illustrate points you are trying to make, but you also lay yourself open to criticism and cries of “Oh, yes but you forgot about this/that.”
That said, here are some of the obvious similarities between the two countries and worrying parallels with the situation on the borders of Ukraine which has sparked such a strong reaction from around the world.
The first and most obvious is that they are under direct threat by a far more powerful neighbour with which they have close historical links.
Ukraine became a part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) after World War II (1945), but regained its independence in 1991 after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Taiwan was similarly tossed into the geopolitical melting pot after World War II and was placed under the governance of the Republic of China (ROC), freeing it from Japan’s colonial era.
Obviously, self-government came about in different ways with Ukraine walking away from the Soviet grip after the collapse of communism in 1989, while Taiwan escaped communism when ROC troops lost the Chinese Civil War and fled to the island.
So not exactly the same, but very similar historical backgrounds. Both countries now find themselves under threat from their larger and more powerful historically-linked neighbours.
Russia, like China, wishes to expand its sphere of influence. President Putin has bemoaned the loss of the former Soviet republics as much as China bemoans the ‘loss’ of Taiwan as part of the mainland’s territory, as it did over Hong Kong for so long prior to 1997.
The two have also indulged in overt imperialistic moves with Russia invading and annexing the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and China staging what amounts to a military takeover of the South China sea in recent years. (Somewhat ironically, it was originally claimed by the ROC in 1947 before The People’s Republic of China (PRC) revised the claim in 1952.)
The direct threat of military force is also present in both cases, although Taiwan has been living with that threat for a lot longer than Ukraine. It is estimated Putin has amassed well over 100,000 troops within striking distance of the Ukraine border, while China is thought to have anywhere between 2,000 to 3,000 missiles pointing at Taiwan.
There is also the strategic importance of both places. Taiwan is very much part of the United States Pacific front line of defence against any possible aggression from China, while Putin fears Ukraine is getting politically too close to Europe, thus weakening Russia’s southern and western flank.
Aside from wanting to expand its sphere of influence, Russia is also concerned about ideological leakage from a country which is politically far more open and free than itself.
Ukraine is an open democracy with a free media with its leaders elected without any undue influence. Russia cannot boast of such things, and even if it tries to pretend the same is the case, it clearly is not. The Kremlin is able to manipulate elections and suppress genuine dissent. China clearly has the same concerns when it comes to Taiwan’s fully functioning democracy, I obviously don’t need to go into detail on this point for you dear reader.
There is also political pride and the desire which is strong in any leading politician to get into the history books as someone who has achieved what they see as a huge positive for their country. Political vanity is not a factor which can be ignored as it is a powerful motivator, particularly among dictators.
Likely membership of supranational organisations is also a factor in place for both Ukraine and Taiwan. China has kept Taiwan from joining the United Nations (UN) via its power of veto and works aggressively to prevent it being part of any other global grouping, to the extent of even throwing a tantrum over the nature of its participation in global sporting events, let alone anything more important, like the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Ukraine is already a member of the UN but Putin is worried it will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) which will only bring it closer to its western allies and further isolate Russia. Just a few days ago Putin shocked the world by saying allowing Ukraine to join NATO would increase the prospects of a Russia-NATO conflict that could turn nuclear.
While shocking, Putin’s threat of nuclear war appears little different to the regular outpourings of various Chinese political and military leaders as they bluster and threaten and indulge in overflying the island with jet fighters on a regular basis.
So there are a myriad of historical and background factors which bring Taiwan and Ukraine together against a similar adversary. They are very different countries, but very much share the same ideals and desires.
While this column comes to no real conclusions and can hardly be deemed an opinion piece, it is food for thought given the nature of the global response to Russia’s sabre-rattling towards Ukraine.
The US has asked China to encourage Russia to back off Ukraine. "We would hope that the Chinese would play a role in encouraging the Russians to do the right thing," US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said a few days ago.
She made this comment against the background of China always expressing concerns over the integrity of border security and sovereignty in UN discussions but her comment sparked a terse response from Zhang Jun, China's ambassador to the UN..
"Our message is consistent and clear: resolve any differences through diplomacy," he said . "Stop hyping up the tension," he said. "Russia's legitimate security concerns should be seriously addressed.”
Even if the current Ukraine situation calms down and peace and stability returns, it will likely be in the same situation as Taiwan in the future, with the same threat hanging over it in the absence of a major shift in policy towards it from its more powerful neighbour.
One thing Taiwan can take heart from is the aggressive response from the western democracies to the Russian threat to Ukraine.
That, if nothing else, would appear to be good news for Taiwan that for all sorts of reasons it can likely rely on its global friends, particularly the United States, to stand by it.
Tinkerty Tonk...
Click here if you would like to read this story in Chinese.
