Friday, July 30, 2021
The Diplomat article 《關於外交家雜誌》
Monday, July 26, 2021
Sunday, July 25, 2021
A Doctor Writes
As a doctor I am often asked “Should I buy a shopping trolley?”
When I was studying at the top university in Taiwan we undertook extensive and well-funded research, and founded an institute which now works tirelessly to try and negate the condition which is now commonly known in medical circles as Toomanybagsitis.
I have advocated publicly many times that Toomanybagsitis is a serious condition, needs immediate attention and a switch to a shopping trolley to cure the condition is essential.
Symptoms of this condition can first become apparent when you open the boot of your car and hundreds of ‘Bags for life’ or various plastic bags in various stages of decay can be detected. This might also be accompanied by opening the cupboard under your sink and not being able to fit any more detergent bottles in there because there are a mass of old plastic bags clogging it up.
This can become a serious condition and a visit to your doctor is essential so he can advise on a suitable form of treatment. This could include a course of Shoppingtrollyolin which can be in tablet form or more simply administered via a visit to the local ten-dollar shop.
Unfortunately there can be some side-effects which include bouts of depression because the bags took up less room than the shopping trolley, which is now cluttering up your spare bedroom.
(Full disclosure - Neither I, or my family, own shares in Shopping Trolleys R Us, World of Shopping Trolleys, or Wholesale Shopping Trolleys. I was not paid for the forward I wrote for Professor Wobbly Wheels definitive work The Benefits of Shopping Trolleys.)
Tinkerty Tonk...
《醫師診療室》
作為一名醫生,我經常被問到一個問題:「 我應該買菜籃車嗎?」
當我在台灣頂尖大學習醫時,我們進行了廣泛且資金充足的研究,並成立了一個研究所,該研究所現在還在努力不懈消除現在醫學界普遍稱為囤積購物袋 (Toomanybagsitis) 的病症。
我曾多次公開主張,「囤積購物袋症」是一種嚴重的疾病,需要立即留意,改用菜籃車來治療這種疾病是不可少的過程。
當你打開後車箱的那一秒鐘,這種病症昭然若揭,你可以立刻檢測到至少六個環保袋,或處於不同腐爛階段的各式塑膠袋。這個病症也可以在打開水槽下方的櫥櫃時發現,你無法放入更多的清潔劑瓶瓶罐罐,因為大量舊塑膠袋一開門就滿出來了。
這可能會越來越嚴重,因此你必須去看醫生,以便醫生提出合適的治療方式。他可能開一個「菜籃車療程 」(Shoppingtrollyolin) 給你,那可能是一些藥片,或者更簡單的方式,就是走一趟附近的小北百貨。
不幸的是,這種治療可能會帶來一些副作用,例如沮喪。因為原來那些袋子的體積總和,遠遠小於菜籃車佔據的空間,菜籃車現在得放在你的客房裡。
完全利益揭露 - 我或我的家人都沒有菜籃車反斗城(Shopping Trolley Are Us)、菜籃車世界 (World of Shopping Trolleys) 或菜籃車大批發 (Wholesale Shopping Trolleys) 的股份。我為搖擺輪先生的曠世鉅作《菜籃車的一百個好處》寫序時,也沒有收取任何費用。
Tinkerty Tonk… 掰掰
Saturday, July 24, 2021
Daft questions
I’ve taught and trained a lot of young journalists over the years. From headlines to lead writing, context to nugraphs, the inverted pyramid structure to quotes and paraphrasing. From news writing to feature writing, from analysis to updates to wrap-ups, night-leads and lead-alls.
One thing I used to spend a lot of time on was the art of asking a good question. I just heard a few examples - coming from the ceiling - of Uncle Chen’s press conference and I’m afraid I started losing the will to live.
It’s important to stress that there is no such thing as a stupid question. But there is such a thing as people asking stupid questions just for the sake of it.
I hate to bash the media, and I fully understand that reporters are under huge pressure from editors to try and squeeze anything new out of any interaction with someone as important as a minister.
But the kind of questions I just heard being asked were really beyond ridiculous. It’s no wonder Chen looked genuinely puzzled trying to think down to the level of some of them.
‘After coming up from scuba-diving you are on the beach and you don’t have a mask, will you get fined if you have to walk across a stretch of beach to get a mask from where you left your stuff?’
Chen came back and basically said use a zipper bag, because he had to say something. If it had been me I would have said “For God’s sake, just use your common sense.”
There is no black and white in all this and it saddens me that reporters with such easy and regular access to someone at Ministerial level, a luxury not enjoyed in many countries even in the midst of the pandemic, can’t come up with questions that actually challenge him.
And finally, It is the style around the world that all the reporters at something like a Ministerial briefing that is broadcast nationally that they identify themselves and the media organisation they represent when they ask a question.
Tinkerty Tonk...
《 蠢問題》 她又黏在天花板上了,這是我這個星期第三次把用完的梯子收起來。 多年來,我訓練過很多年輕記者。從標題 (headlines) 到第一段 (lead writing),從上下文 (context) 到核心段落 (nugraphs),從倒金字塔結構 (inverted pyramid structure) 到引用和轉述 (quotes and paraphrasing),從新聞寫作 (news writing) 到專題寫作 (feature writing),從分析 (analysis) 到更新(updates) 到綜合 (wrap-ups) 再到總結 (night-leads and lead-alls)。 (譯者註:這是通訊社的寫法,不過基本原則大致適用於所有新聞寫作) 我花了很多時間和受訓記者討論如何提出好問題的藝術,剛剛我從天花板上聽到陳叔叔的記者會上的幾個例子,我覺得我開始失去活下去的意志。 要注意,沒有愚蠢的問題。 但是有人提出愚蠢問題,好像只是為了要開口問。 記者是我一輩子的職業所以其實我討厭抨擊媒體,而且我完全理解記者承受著來自編輯的巨大壓力,想盡千方百計要從與部長這樣重要的人的任何互動中,擠出點新東西來。 但我剛剛聽到的一些問題真的是太荒謬了,難怪陳叔叔看起來很困惑,並且試圖降低到其中一些人的水準去回答。 “潛水回來後走在海灘上,你沒有戴口罩,如果得穿過沙灘到你放東西的地方取口罩,會被罰款嗎?” 陳叔叔基本上回答用拉鍊袋,因為他得回答記者的問題。如果是我,我會說:“看在上帝的份上,用你的常識吧。” 這一切都不是非黑即白,但令我感到難過的是,台灣記者能夠如此輕鬆而且定期接觸到部長級別的人,即使在疫情大流行期間,在許多國家是一種奢侈,但他們卻無法提出可以挑戰他的嚴肅問題。 最後,記者參加向全國廣播的部長級記者會,提問時表明自己和代表媒體的身份,是國際慣例。 Tinkerty Tonk… 掰掰。
Friday, July 23, 2021
God Complex
It’s always worrying when a person in a position of authority who makes decisions that affect the lives of many, gets delusional about their own abilities.
Generally speaking it ends badly for everyone involved when such a person reaches the stage when you could start to describe it as a God Complex. It is generally accompanied by feelings of paranoia and thinking that things are only going wrong, or you are unpopular because you are being unfairly attacked.
Seldom does the victim consider it might be something they are doing, or not doing, that is at fault - because they think they are way smarter than anyone around them.
It is defined thus - A god complex is an unshakable belief characterized by consistently inflated feelings of personal ability, privilege, or infallibility. A person with a god complex may refuse to admit the possibility of their error or failure, even in the face of irrefutable evidence. God complex is not a clinical term nor diagnosable disorder.
For example, if an official with oversight over a large area were asked if they were doing a good job. If that person said they would rate themselves 95 out of a 100, I would seriously start to wonder if this particular person had any self awareness at all.
If that same person saw their popularity rating go from 70 pct to 30 pct but blamed this only on attacks by rivals, I would again wonder if massive delusion and paranoia was kicking in - in a serious way.
This person might also never want to admit that anyone could help them and might even go so far as to take credit for something someone else had clearly helped with to get a good result.
Some country leaders suffer from God Complex. Trump certainly did, Boris Johnson does not. Trump surrounded himself with ‘yes men’ while Boris Johnson has an army of advisors.
Whether Johnson listens to them or not is beside the point and he is clearly a buffoon. But he doesn’t claim to be doing a 95 percent good job and doesn’t set himself up as a Doctor who is expert in every field of medicine, or a scientist, or a near perfect administrator.
One thing Johnson does that does fit the God Complex mould is he appoints those with limited intellectual capacity in positions around him so they will never be a threat...which is paranoid behaviour.
Every would-be politician has to possess a huge ego as it goes with the turf. But any person who thinks they can do little wrong, is vastly superior to anyone else and tries to convince everyone they are some kind of genius really needs to be steered away from positions of authority.
Usually, voters are smart enough to spot these kind of people, or get rid of them at the ballot box when the God Complex manifests itself.
Tinkerty Tonk..
《 上帝情結 》
當一個有權做出影響許多人生活決定的人,對自己的能力產生妄想時,總是令人擔憂。
當這樣的人到達你開始將其描述為上帝情結 (God Complex) 的階段時,結局對所有相關人士都會很糟糕。偏執通常伴隨而來,他們認為凡事都不對勁,或者他們不受歡迎只是因為遭受不公平的攻擊。
此類受害者很少認為這可能是他們正在做,或根本沒有做的事情有錯 -因為他們認為自己比周圍的任何人都聰明。
上帝情結的定義是這樣的,是一種不可動搖的信念,其特徵是對個人能力、特權或永不出錯的感覺持續膨脹。即使面對無可辯駁的證據,有上帝情結的人還是會拒絕承認任何他們出錯或失敗的可能性。上帝情結不是臨床術語,也不是可診斷的疾病。
例如一位在一般認知裡有不少疏失的官員,被問及是否把工作做好時,給自己打了 95 分,我會認真地開始懷疑這個人是否有任何自我意識。
如果同一個人看到自己受歡迎的程度從 70% 下降到 30%,卻將這個結果完全歸咎於競爭對手的攻擊,我會再次懷疑大規模的妄想和偏執,正在嚴重發生。
這個人也可能永遠不想承認有任何人可以提供協助,甚至可能會在其他人幫助取得成果後,認為那是自己的成就。
國家領導人通常有上帝情結的毛病。川普當然有,強生相較之下沒有。川普周圍有不少只會對著他說是的人,強生則是有一大批顧問。
這裡的重點並不是強生是否聽從顧問的建議,因為他顯然只是個小丑,但他並沒有聲稱他把應做的工作做到了 95%,也沒有自詡為“醫生”,而這個醫生顯然也是各個領域的專家、科學家或近乎完美的管理者。
不過強生倒是做了一件符合上帝情結模式的事,那就是他在身邊安插了一些智力有限的人,這樣他們就永遠不會成為威脅……這是一種偏執的行為。
每個想成為政治家的人都有一個巨大自我,但是任何認為自己幾乎不會做錯事、遠勝於任何人,並試圖說服每個人他們是某種天才的人,絕對需要遠離權位。
通常選民是夠聰明的,可以發現這類人,或者在上帝情結顯現時從投票箱中將他們除掉。
Tinkerty Tonk...掰掰。
Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Having Hysterics
It is defined as someone being “affected by or deriving from wildly uncontrolled emotion.”
From what I hear about the TMD and KMT’s most recent outbursts, both of them must be borderline hysterical because they are so frustrated at people laughing at their efforts to score political points.
It’s like watching mad Uncle Roger at a family wedding drinking an entire bottle of Baijiu and yelling abuse at everyone towards the end of the evening.
From what I hear, our Olympic hopeful the Badminton Princess sent a selfie from the plane and said how much she missed travelling business class. Even for a short 3 hour 15 minute flight it would have been nice, but the real implications quickly became apparent, and it turned out that half the Olympic committee were in business class.
That is utterly shameful and it is them who should be criticized. There have been enough stories over the years of corruption surrounding the Olympics and Tokyo has been no different with all sorts of allegations now flying around.
It is quite right to call out the Olympic committee and there should be an investigation on how this happened and if indeed the Athletes were treated as second class to the officials, coaches and doctors.
According to the Olympic Charter, every National Olympic Committee (NOC) must be free from government interference. But surveys have shown that at least one in seven NOCs have leaders with formal ties to their national governments.
The official in charge of sport affairs has offered to resign. Quite right too. Maybe there is a lesson here given the Olympic Charter, and Taiwan should quickly act to completely separate the NOC here from the Government.
All well and good. An opposition doing its job and calling something out that needed calling out.
But then like a boxer who has landed a few punches, they started showboating and became massively overconfident and began to swing wildly.
HOW DARE THE GOVERNMENT PUT HER IN A ROOM LIKE THAT? They screamed when Badminton Girl sent a picture of her hotel room.
Their screaming fits of rage quickly turned to red-faced embarrassment when she meekly told everyone she chose that particular hotel because it was nearer the training ground than the other hotels on offer.
Did it not occur to them to check? Clearly not...sorry, that was a rhetorical question. I seem to be asking rhetorical questions a lot lately like “Are they stupid?” “Do they not think?” “Are these people eight years old?”
Then came the food. HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY GIVE HER FOOD LIKE THAT? They screamed at the government.
There was even one young KMT official who set himself up as some kind of athlete's nutritional expert and opined that the contents of the bento box were not what an athlete would eat. As someone who is quite clearly not that cautious about what he pushes into his face, I have to wonder if he should be setting himself up as some kind of advisor on what Olympian Miss Tai should, or should not be eating.
The KMT often lets itself down by allowing these kinds of people to publicly air their views. They need better thinkers in these positions, and certainly more mature ones.
Er, the bento box came from The Okura Hotel, one of the finest hotels in Tokyo and Tai was more than happy with it. I was lucky enough to have stayed there on more than one occasion when I was a senior editor and very nice it was too.
On top of that, with a simple check on the Okura website, some bento boxes cost over 10,000 yen which is about TW$ 2,500. Yes guys, that was a real slap in the face pointing that one out.
Talk about an unedifying episode. The amount of egg on their faces is truly laughable and pretty much negates any good they did raising the issue of the flight.
Any coach will tell you don’t get cocky, and don’t celebrate too early...it’s a great way to lose or look stupid.
What really worries me about all this is the heavy politicising of everything that moves, and in this case sport. They have already heavily politicised healthcare through Covid and are proving yet again they are simply desperate to lower themselves to the level of a bar brawl pretty much every day.
Having an opposition that is ineffective at doing what it is supposed to be doing in terms of keeping the government of the day accountable and coming up with constructive criticism and not just throwing ill-thought out insults with no checking of facts.
In this ugly case the flight news was scandalous, rightly called out and there should be resignations and a change in government policy on how the Olympic committee here operates. After that, they should have shut up and avoided embarrassing themselves by dragging it on and on.
I can only hope that by doing all this they have not upset poor Miss Tai who has been working and training for most of her life towards this Olympics. She needs to be as mentally prepared for her moment as she needs to be physically prepared.
I can only hope they haven’t ruined her chances by dragging her into this protracted nonsense as ridiculous politicians desperately try to score political points and use her as a weapon.
I would beg the Taiwan media in Tokyo not to ask her questions about all this.
We need to leave her alone and allow her to get her head in the right space and not looking at her phone the whole time in case another political storm has blown up around her.
I wish her the very best of luck.
Tinkerty Tonk…
Sunday, July 18, 2021
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Much has been written about the Dunning Kruger effect and how it manifests itself in the senior officials and government leaders that control our daily lives. A simple Google search will amply demonstrate just how much thought has been given to the issue in recent years.
Only the other day while I was disentangling Mrs Smith from the rather nice spotlight rail we have over the dining room table, and she was gibbering something about... “95%, he actually said 95%!”
Of course I have no idea who on earth she was talking about. But my not inconsiderable Sherlock Holmes qualities quickly kicked-in and I deduced that she might be talking about someone in the upper echelon of the administration in Taiwan. You see Watson, it was a simple deduction even when the subject is gibbering incoherently, sweating, and clearly very angry.
For those of you unfamiliar with Dunning-Kruger, I would encourage you to look it up.
I frankly think the best definition pops up when you do a simple Google search <dunning kruger effect>...if you can’t be arsed to do it yourself, Secret Squirrel is always here to lift the burden on your Sunday afternoon relaxation. It is this…
“The Dunning–Kruger effect is a hypothetical cognitive bias stating that people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. ... It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from people's inability to recognize their lack of ability.”
Which is the kind of complicated bullshit you would expect from a couple of psychologists to come up with. It broadly means - some arseholes think they are WAY SMARTER than they actually are.
It was then, Watson, I started to narrow down what the gibbering, sweating and angry wreck of a human being at my feet by the dining room table was ranting in her fits of rage. Could it be - she was talking about someone in a position of power in Taiwan, or even Taipei?
So after a night of pawing through psychology books, while puffing on my pipe the whole time in proper Sherlock Holmes fashion...(I tried to lean on the mantlepiece and at the same time looking pensive, but we only have air conditioning so It didn’t really work…) I came across a whole bunch of companies who sell services aimed at getting the best from those who are having problems with their leadership abilities.
Broadly speaking they all agree…I took this example from one of them and would like to thank Aubrey Daniels International (ADI) and in particular Bryan Shelton who wrote the article. ADI provides leadership development expertise and behavioral technology to improve businesses and their culture. (Full disclosure - I never have had, and currently do not have any relationship with either ADI or Bryan Shelton…. It just popped up on the internet when I did a search)
The main things they point to as problems with those in leadership positions who are not performing well are -
- Being vague
- Praising results without understanding how they were produced
- Over-relying on fear and intimidation
- Only seeing the world from their point of view
You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to work out who we are talking about here...
Tinkerty tonk...
《 鄧寧克魯格效應 》 關於鄧寧克魯格效應 (Dunning-Kruger effect),簡稱鄧克效應(DK effect),以及這個現象如何在控制我們日常生活的政府人物或是領導者身上顯現出來,簡單的谷歌搜索就可以發現,近年來對這個現象的研究不勝枚舉。 就在前幾天,當我把史密斯太太從餐桌上方相當漂亮的吊燈桿上解救下來時,她還在胡言亂語:“95 分,他真的說他做到了 95分!” 我當然不知道她到底在說誰,但我那不容小覷的福爾摩斯特質很快就發揮了作用。我推斷她可能在談論台灣政府高層的某個人。 華生醫生你看,這是一個簡單的推論,即使這個線索語無倫次、滿頭大汗,而且顯然非常生氣。 對於那些不熟悉鄧克效應 (Dunning-Kruger effect) 的人,我建議你查一下。 坦白說最好的定義會在你做一個簡單的谷歌搜索動作時,立刻跳出螢幕。不過如果你懶到不能自己動手,松鼠特務總是在這裡減輕你輕鬆週日午後的負擔。就是這個。 “鄧克效應是一種假設的認知偏差,也就是能力低下的人會高估自己的能力......這與虛幻優越感的認知偏差有關,來自人們無法認識到自己的能力不足。” 沒錯,這就是你知道那些心理學家會提出的那種複雜的廢話。不過簡而言之,這大致意味著:一些混蛋認為他們比實際上更聰明。 就在那個時候,華生醫生,我的調查範圍縮小了,從這個以人類殘骸形式存在的生物,在餐桌邊我腳下胡言亂語、滿頭大汗、怒髮衝冠咆哮的內容判斷,莫非,她說的是某個台灣甚至台北的當權者? 因此,經過一整夜翻閱心理學書籍,同時以適當的福爾摩斯姿勢一直抽著煙斗......(我試圖靠在壁爐架上,同時看起來在沉思,但我們家只有冷氣,所以這沒有真正奏效)我知道有很多公司提供服務幫助領導能力有問題的人。 大致來說,以下要敘述的內容多數公司都同意,我從其中一個那裡拿了這個例子。我要感謝 Aubrey Daniels International (ADI),特別是撰寫這篇文章的 Bryan Shelton。 ADI 提供領導力發展專業知識和行為技術,以改善企業及其文化。(利益揭露 - 我在過去和現在與 ADI 或 Bryan Shelton 都沒有任何關係......他們只是在我搜索時在螢幕上彈出來) 他們指出,擔任領導職位的人表現不佳的主要問題是: ★ 含糊其辭 ★ 在不了解結果是如何產生的情況下讚美結果 ★ 過度依賴恐懼和威脅 ★ 只從他們的角度看世界 你不必成為福爾摩斯,就可以弄清楚我們在這裡談論的是誰...... Tinkerty tonk… 掰掰