There is a phrase in English ‘A Hostage to Fortune’ which means an undertaking or remark that is regarded as unwise because it invites trouble or could prove difficult to live up to.
As a journalist, I’ve always regarded making big predictions in opinion columns as unwise and making myself a Hostage to Fortune, because it’s easy to be proved wrong.
That caveat out of the way, as a concerned resident I do feel the need to write down my thoughts on the latest shenanigans in - and indeed around - Taiwan. I also want to do this as I’m frankly embarrassed by much of the Media’s take on the Pelosi visit.
What many people tend to forget is the deeper background and history of a situation, either because they are ignorant of the facts, or because they have an agenda.
It seems the United States attitude towards Taiwan has been bolstered by circumstance since President Jimmy Carter broke relations with the Republic of China in 1979 and defined officially substantial but non-diplomatic relations between the two.
The relationship was perhaps less important while the US still felt it was the undisputed leader and policeman of the free world as well as being economically head-and-shoulders above everywhere else.
This pole-position has ebbed away in recent decades as other areas grabbed a larger share of global Gross Domestic Product and caught up with an America which was dogged not only by home grown crises like the 2008 housing crash but also by global events.
Watching the now organised might of the European Union, as well as China and India, catch up with it so strongly in terms of economic strength, must be a concern for the US if they are looking to hold onto their global political clout and influence.
With economic power ebbing away, it is small wonder they look towards the still unassailable position their huge military affords them to retain global influence. The U.S. Armed Forces are by far the world's most powerful with a budget of around US$700 billion, accounting for around 35 percent of the world's total defence spending and three times its nearest rival.
Only last Wednesday the Associated Press carried the following lead. “U.S. Senators delivered overwhelming bipartisan approval to NATO membership for Finland and Sweden Wednesday, calling expansion of the Western defensive bloc a “slam-dunk” for U.S. national security and a day of reckoning for Russian President Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine.”
With the US having the largest number of military personnel of all the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries and so, by a long way, having the biggest influence, it is no wonder they described expanded membership as a “slam-dunk”.
That language alone pretty much demonstrates the US wants to retain its political power and authority in the world, and part of that is not just being in better shape to stand up to the likes of Russia, but elsewhere where threats remain.
The Americans have fought two major wars since WWII during the Cold War with the Soviets, obsentibly to stop the spread of communism. The Korean and Vietnamese Wars were aimed primarily at preventing the spread of communism, costing around 95,000 American lives and well over 300,000 wounded.
Has the world really changed that much for the United States to have collectively forgotten all those crippled and dead American souls to not fight for democracy and against the spread of communism now?
Yes, the world has changed. Yes things are different now, but I have to wonder if the fundamentals that existed then have completely disappeared in the minds of ordinary Americans and that of the American Government.
Also remember the moves by America after World War 2 (WWII) in constructing defensive lines across the Pacific stretching from Japan in the north, through Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines down across East Asia and the Pacific to Australia. This was all done with the possibility of future tensions in mind. Would the US just abandon such a long-standing commitment?
“We envision an Indo-Pacific that is open, connected, prosperous, resilient, and secure—and we are ready to work together with each of you to achieve it,” US President Joe Biden said at the East Asia Summit in October 2021.
Nearly half the US military are deployed abroad, with around 80,000 American personnel overseas. Japan has 53,700 and South Korea 26,400. South Korea hosts Camp Humphreys, the largest overseas US military base, just 65km from Seoul.
Given the history and other recent tensions and worries over the situation in the South China Sea, is it any wonder the authorities in the world’s leading nation are taking a close interest in the perceived threat to Taiwan? This, particularly in the light of Ukraine and the tragedy of the aggression that is happening there.
I think those who dismiss the Pelosi visit as just the United States trying to face-down another superpower and using Taiwan as a political pawn in some giant diplomatic chess game are not fully considering how the US has behaved in the past in Asia. Its fight against the spread of communism, its championing of democracy and its close relationship with Japan underline America’s commitment to the peace and stability in the Pacific region.
On the US State Department website under an article headlined ‘U.S. Relations With Japan’ it says “Japan is one of the world’s most successful democracies and largest economies. The U.S.-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of U.S. security interests in Asia and is fundamental to regional stability and prosperity. The Alliance is based on shared vital interests and values, including: the maintenance of stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”
I do wonder if those who suggest the US is just playing political games, or just trying to score points in an apparently growing Cold-War, or are somehow frightened of another superpower are mis-remembering the huge price America has paid in Asia in the past.
WWII saw America sacrifice 111,606 dead or missing and another 253,142 wounded in the war against Japanese imperialism in the Pacific. That, together with the subsequent wars against the spread of communism and their ongoing and vocal support of Pacific nations is enough to convince me the Pelosi visit is far from them just playing hollow diplomatic games.
Tinkerty Tonk…
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