Afghanistan saga and America's place in the world

A short while ago I wrote about the tragic consequences I thought the US decision to pull out of Afghanistan would have on its population. It is unfolding as badly as I thought it would. 

I am by no means an oracle on Afghanistan, nor a historian, so please bear this in mind. But I did oversee the news output from Afghanistan for a total of six years as well as looking after the safety and welfare of my staff, both international and local, who were stationed both in the main office in Kabul and in various cities and regions around the country. 

I apologise if I repeat some of the points I made in the last article in this one. For me this is somewhat of an emotional journey as I am still close to many of my ex-colleagues there. I am deeply saddened by what is currently happening as I know it will have a major impact on their lives. 

It was the author’s birthday during one trip to Kabul. The Reuters bureau staff threw a party and baked a cake.

It is clear the United States has made yet another of its massive foreign policy mis-steps with the intelligence services, yet again, getting it seriously wrong. In fact they got it so wrong that when President Biden announced the troop withdrawal was going ahead and a reporter asked. “Is the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable?” Biden confidently replied “No, it is not,” Because you have the Afghan troops have 300,000 well equipped, as well equipped as any army in the world, and an Air Force, against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable.”

He even went further saying it was not only not inevitable but actually unlikely. “The likelihood there is going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely,” he said.

It would be funny if the consequences were not so tragic in terms of the human cost. 

The hillsides around Kabul are packed with shanties which house those who have fled the Taliban strongholds, mainly in the south, over the years of the US occupation. Of the near 400 districts in Afghanistan before the US pullout the Government controlled 35%, the Taliban 23% and 42% were contested. The Government, nor the US ever fully controlled the country.

This has made the US look extremely foolish in the eyes of a shocked world that is looking on askance and wondering how the most powerful nation on earth with 20-years experience in Afghanistan could have got it so disastrously wrong. 

Bear in mind the troop pullout was negotiated by the Trump administration, although the Republicans are trying to pretend it wasn’t, but the Biden administration must take the blame for the appallingly botched way it has been carried out.

Frankly there is nothing left to be said really. It is what it is. The country is back in the hands of the Taliban as it was before the Americans invaded on October 7, 2001 as part of its Global War on Terrorism, just a month after the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Centre in New York.

The rights and wrongs of the so-called Global War on Terror are endlessly debatable, but the United States has for years set itself up as the world’s policeman and has put itself on somewhat of a pedestal as the saviour of freedom and democracy. So this latest rash act, which seems to be anything but about freedom and democracy, has rightly sparked a debate about US commitment. 

Particularly in any country with more than just a regular relationship, of which Taiwan is clearly one. There has been much talk here about whether it is a good idea to be as close to the US as Taiwan undoubtedly is, although the obvious answer is...What is the alternative?”

Most countries have different types of relationships with other countries. Some talk about ‘special relationships’ which can be based in history or because of shared interests. When you think about it the European Union is really just an extremely strong grouping of special relationships between countries where they all agree on some very strong legal and economic bonding. As we have seen with Brexit, even these extremely strong special relationships can be broken.  

Take the UK and the US as another example. They share a massively strong historical bond having both joined a conflict against the shared enemy of Germany in both World Wars, and Japan in the second. 

Is it any wonder the two countries, having had soldiers fighting side-by-side against a common enemy with many buried side-by-side in the same cemeteries, have such a strong bond? But even here, neither side can totally rely on the other and cracks are beginning to show. The days of the UK Prime Minister Thatcher/US President Regan love-fest are long gone. 

Indeed, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he dislikes the phrase special relationship.

According to one of Johnson’s aides he considers it to be “needy and weak.” How about “indestructible relationship,” Johnson suggested in an interview with the BBC around the time of the last G7 meeting in June. Biden called it a special relationship, Johnson wants to call it an indestructible relationship. This is called diplomacy.  

Johnson is desperate for a trade deal with the US after Brexit and keen to reinforce ties to the US. But the point is that all relationships are viewed differently by the countries involved and both sides have their own agenda which can change over time.

Any diplomatic ties have to be, to use that awful phrase, a win-win. But clearly one side will win more than the other in any relationship - ask any married couple. 

So Taiwan has huge historical ties to the US and its relationship is arguably even closer than the UK’s, because it is enshrined in US law. This is in the form of the Taiwan Relations Act enacted on April 10, 1979 after the US recognized the People’s Republic of China and established diplomatic relations with it as the sole legitimate government of China.

Taiwan’s relationship with the US is about as different from Afghanistan as it is possible to be, and to say Taiwan should rethink its relationship with the US because of what has happened in Afghanistan begs the question. Well, if you think that, what’s the alternative? 

Could Taiwan, through diplomatic channels develop a close relationship with a superpower who would provide up to date military equipment and training and "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States." As the Taiwan Relations Act stipulates. 

Where could Taiwan find that kind of deal in terms of security? The answer is no-where. Would it be wise to say to America...Hey, we don’t really trust you any more so let’s forget all this? 

Nothing is guaranteed to last forever. The world’s diplomats are not climbing into photo booths together and taking Best Friends Forever snaps with cartoon hearts popping out of their heads. That’s not actually how diplomacy works, surprisingly enough. 

Those urging caution when dealing with the US are right to do so. But telling a diplomat or a government that is akin to teaching your granny to suck eggs. 

Maybe a few brave souls here will suggest getting closer to China, but I doubt it, as it would be political suicide. Reading between the lines, it’s obviously what some in opposition think, but they will never say it out-loud. 

It was a mistake to invade Afghanistan in the first place, and 20 years later the US has botched its withdrawal, hence the widespread comparison with their Vietnam venture. I can’t see how that equates to being anything other than normal diplomatic caution when dealing with the US in Taiwan’s relationship with the Americans. 

And that is just run of the mill, day-to-day normal diplomacy. It is happening now, and will continue to happen. The Afghanistan situation changes nothing in Taiwan’s case and it would be sheer folly to in any way sour a relationship which clearly benefits Taiwan more than it does the US.

There is a famous last line from a poem written in the early twentieth century by Hilaire Belloc in his Cautionary Tales for Children which included the story of Jim, who ran away from his nurse, and was eaten by a lion. 

“Always keep tight hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse.” 

阿富汗事件激發的疑美論

上個月底我寫了一篇文章〈阿富汗悲歌〉，認為美國撤出阿富汗的決定將會導致悲劇性的後果，接下來的發展和我想像的一樣糟糕。

我絕不是阿富汗問題的神諭，也不是歷史學家，請記住這一點。不過擔任路透社南亞總編輯六年期間，我的確必須對所有從阿富汗向全球發出的新聞負責，還要負責境內本國籍外國籍員工的安全和福利。除了首都喀布爾的主要辦公室，路透社在阿富汗全國各地還有許多合約記者。

悲哀已開始

如果在此我重複了上一篇文章中提出的一些觀點，我深表歉意。討論阿富汗在情感上對我而言是困難的，因為我仍然與在那裡的許多前同事保持密切聯繫。有一次進入阿富汗剛好是我的生日，同事們訂了一個有機關槍和手榴彈圖案的蛋糕，我們在辦公室的院子裡烤肉喝酒一直到深夜。

目前正在發生的事讓我十分悲傷，因為我知道他們的生活即將產生難以想像的巨變。

很明顯美國在重大外交政策中，再度犯了一個嚴重的錯誤，尤其在情報方面。美國總統拜登宣布撤軍時有記者提問：「塔利班接管阿富汗現在是不可避免的嗎？」拜登自信地回答：「不，不是。因為阿富汗有三十萬裝備精良的軍隊，和世界上任何裝備精良的軍隊一樣，還有一支空軍可以對抗七萬五千名塔利班，這並非不可避免。」

拜登甚至進一步說，這不僅不是必然，實際上是不太可能。「塔利班統治並擁有整個國家的可能性極小，」他說。

如果後果不是以人命為代價，他這番話是好笑的，但現在這讓美國在震驚的世界眼中顯得極其愚蠢。這個世界正疑惑地看著，想知道這個在阿富汗擁有 20 年經驗，地球上最強大的國家，怎麼會犯下如此災難性的錯誤。

儘管共和黨人試圖假裝不是這樣，請記住撤軍是川普政府交涉定案的，但拜登政府必須為令人震驚的拙劣執行方式承擔責任。

其實現在真的沒有什麼可說，事情就是這樣了。這個國家又回到了塔利班的手中，就像 2001 年 10 月 7 日美國發起全球反恐戰爭之前一樣，那是在 9／11 紐約世貿中心恐攻一個月後。

姑且不論所謂的全球反恐戰爭的對與錯，美國多年來一直將自己定位為世界警察，並在某種程度上將自己置於自由和民主的救世主地位。因此，最近的這一輕率行為似乎與自由和民主無關，理所當然也引發了關於美國承諾的辯論。

如何看待美國的承諾

這種辯論在與美國不僅僅是一般關係的國家中特別明顯，台灣就是其中之一。這幾天有不少關於台灣和美國關係密切是否是個好主意的討論，儘管顯而易見的答案是：其他選擇是什麼？

多數國家與他國有不同類型的關係，有些「特殊關係」是基於歷史或共同利益。只要想一想，就知道歐盟實際上只是一個非常強大的國家之間的「特殊關係」群體，這些國家都同意他們之間有一些非常強大的法律和經濟連結。但是從英國脫歐的例子看來，即使是非常牢固的「特殊關係」也可能被打破。

以英國和美國為例，他們有著深厚的歷史淵源，在兩次世界大戰中打擊共同的敵人德國和日本。兩國士兵並肩作戰，毫無疑問在對抗共同敵人後產生了強烈的情感連結。但他們依舊不能完全依賴對方，裂痕開始出現，前英國首相柴契爾夫人和前美國總統雷根如情侶般在全世界眼前翩翩起舞的日子，早已一去不復返。

現任英國首相強生已經表示他不喜歡「特殊關係」這個詞。據強生的一位助手說，他認為這個詞讓人覺得「有需要而且軟弱」。強生在 6 月份G7會議期間接受 BBC 採訪時建議用一個別的詞，「堅不可摧的關係怎麼樣？」

拜登稱之為特殊關係，強生希望稱之為堅不可摧的關係，這就是外交。

現在強生迫切希望在英國脫歐後與美國達成貿易協議，他當然只看見英國的利益，但重點是相關國家對關係的看法不同，雙方都有自己的目標，這些目標也可能會隨著時間而改變。

任何外交關係，用那個可怕的詞來說吧，都必須是雙贏，但很明顯在任何關係中，一方都會比另一方贏得更多，問問任何已婚夫婦就知道這個道理。

台灣與美國的關係是極具歷史意義的，台美關係某種角度看來甚至可以說比英美關係更密切，因為它以 1979 年 4 月 10 日美國總統簽署生效的《台灣關係法》形式載入美國法律。

台灣能脫美入中嗎？

台灣與美國的關係和阿富汗與美國的關係更是大不相同，要說因為阿富汗發生的事情，台灣就應該重新考慮與美國的關係是很有問題的。好吧，就算你這麼認為好了，你的選擇是什麼？

台灣是否可以通過外交管道與另一個超級強國建立密切關係，而且後者將提供台灣最新的軍事武器，並如《台灣關係法》明載，「任何企圖以非和平方式來決定臺灣的前途之舉──包括使用經濟抵制及禁運手段在內，將被視為對西太平洋地區和平及安定的威脅，而為美國所嚴重關切」？

在安全方面，哪裡可以找到這種交易？答案是沒有。你覺得對美國說：嘿，我們真的不能再信任你了，所以讓我們忘記這一切吧，是明智之舉嗎？

當然我們都知道沒有什麼保證是永垂不朽的，世界各國的外交官不會一起爬進可以印上卡通圖案的快照機裡拍下死黨大頭照，然後在上面貼滿愛心。外交不是如此運作。

希望在與美國打交道時謹慎行事是正確的態度，但告訴外交官或政府要怎麼做，這真的就像打算教數學博士一加一等於二。也許一些勇敢的靈魂會建議更接近中國，但我懷疑這會是政治自殺。仔細推敲顯然這是一些反對黨的想法，但他們不會大聲說出來。

 一開始入侵阿富汗是錯誤的，20年後美國又搞砸了撤軍，這是正在發生的事，但我看不出為什麼這可以和對台美關係如常保持謹慎相提並論。

這只是普通的日常外交，台美關係正在發生並將繼續發生。阿富汗的局勢對台灣的情況沒有任何改變，而且以任何方式破壞台灣和美國的關係都是十分愚蠢的。

貝洛克（Hilaire Belloc）於 20 世紀初在他的《告誡兒童的故事》書中寫了一首詩，描述淘氣的吉姆逃離護士，最後被獅子吃掉的故事，其中最後一行是最著名的。

「始終緊緊牽住護士的手，否則可能會發現更糟的情況。」

At the Market

Captain Kovid loses it again...

The more I see and hear about Captain Kovid the more I see someone frustrated with his chosen path in life, and someone unable to cope with that chosen path.

Aside from often stating the blindingly obvious to an audience he can only consider to be morons, displays a staggering level of contempt. This, with almost tantrums on camera that he is right and everyone else is wrong brings to mind an unruly toddler refusing to go to bed. 

For someone with Presidential ambitions, as misguided as they may be, this kind of behaviour looks sad and desperate, and demonstrates that he really thinks he deserves to be in that position, no matter what the electorate thinks. I’ve written about this complex in earlier pieces. 

To see someone start to lose it like this so early in the campaign is telling. He is already turning into Mr Angry and that’s because he is trying to criticise an administration that’s actually doing a great job and that he really has no better ideas. Look at the US, look at the UK, look at Europe if you want to see administrations that are letting their populations down over the Covid issue.

I’m still extremely glad I’m here, not in one of these other places.  

Earlier in the Parliament, Minister Chen said he took full responsibility for the controversy over the short Covid isolation for pilots which may have contributed to the latest little outbreak.

Ko attacked this quite gracious acceptance of accountability by saying “The minister said in parliament that he would take full responsibility. Not until yesterday I realised why he said he would be responsible. Because it seems he doesn't have to be responsible. I'm done. Huh!”

Then he slammed down the microphone. This from someone who appears to never want to be accountable for anything and always blames someone else when things go wrong for him.  

Decorum is a useful English word that means - behaviour in keeping with good taste and propriety. It is more often used in English prefaced with the word ‘lack’ to describe someone who behaves badly and with little respect. Ko certainly lacks decorum. 

Many people let their tempers get the better of them at times. I just wonder if someone who can’t seem to control himself and act with a little more decorum in a minor press conference will be able to control himself if he ever manages to gain a higher position.

Can you imagine someone with such a short fuse in the same room as another world leader? What might he blurt out, what might he get angry at and say something disrespectful?

Whether these little temper tantrums are a symptom of frustration that he is way behind in the polls, that he just can’t cope with the pressure and responsibility of his current job, or that his God Complex is getting so out of control that he’s really not thinking all that straight, is open to question. 

To my mind...it’s likely all three.

Tinkerty Tonk…  

《 Captain Kovid 又發脾氣了》

關於 Captain Kovid，我看到和聽到的越多，就越發現到有人似乎對他選擇的人生道路感到沮喪，他似乎也無法面對所選擇的道路。

除了經常向人們陳述顯而易見週所周知的內容，他也許認為那些觀眾是白痴，因此他也展現出驚人的蔑視。在鏡頭前他似乎總是在發脾氣：他是對的，其他人都是錯的。這讓人想起一個不守規矩蹣跚學步的孩子，拒絕上床睡覺。

對於有總統野心的人來說，儘管他們的野心可能被誤導了，但這種行為看起來令人悲傷和絕望，說明了無論選民怎麼想，他堅信他應該擔任那個職位。我在之前的文章中已經寫過這種複雜的情結。

有人在競選活動甚至還沒開始就像這樣失控，跟我們說明了點什麼。他已經變成了憤怒先生，因為他試圖批評一個實際上做得很好的政府，而且他真的沒有更好的想法。如果你想看到政府在處理 Covid 問題上如何讓人民失望，你可以看看美國看看英國，看看歐洲也可以。

至今我仍然非常高興疫情期間我在台灣，而不是在以上任何一個地方。

衛福部長曾經在立法院表示，他會對飛行員隔離政策引發的爭議負全部責任，因為這個政策可能導致了最近那些小規模的疫情爆發。

台北市長抨擊了衛福部長優雅概括承受全責一事，他說陳時中在立法院說要對 3＋11負責，「我到昨天才知道為什麼他說他負責，因為他看起來是不用負責的嘛，講完了，哼。」然後他砰的一聲放下麥克風。 

這是來自一個似乎從不想對任何事情負責，並且總是在出現問題時責怪別人的人。

Decorum 是一個有用的英語單字，意思是符合良好品味和禮儀的行為，英語中常用在以 lack 缺乏一詞為前提的句子，用來形容行為惡劣且不尊重他人的人。台北市長當然是缺乏禮貌的。

許多人有時會讓壓抑不住自己的脾氣而發怒，我只是想知道在小型記者會上，似乎無法控制自己並表現出一點品味和禮儀的人，如果有朝一日他更上一層樓，是否能夠控制自己。

你能想像有人和另一位世界領導人在同一個房間裡，忽然之間保險絲短路就大發雷霆嗎？他可能會脫口而出什麼，或是可能因為生氣而說出不尊重的話？

這些小脾氣是否是他在民意調查中遠遠落後的沮喪症狀，或是他無法應對當前工作的壓力和責任，還是他的上帝情結變得如此失控，以至於他無法頭腦清醒地思考，是值得商榷的。

在我看來……這三種可能性都是。

Tinkerty Tonk…  掰掰。

Vaccines? - HA, I laugh in the face of vaccines

I was wondering the other day why I seem to have so little patience with anti-vaxxers who have lately reached the heights of absurdity, in as much as people have been claiming it makes them magnetic or bluetooth enabled.

(Please God, make me bluetooth enabled so when J and I are in the car I can just think my “yes dear” and “no dear” replies to her various political rants and have the car stereo articulate my reply...usually once every five kilometers on the highway.)

There being no ceiling in the Toyota so it is harder for me to escape these diatribes when we are in the car, plus the fact we have not been travelling much due to the little outbreak we all suffered in Taipei and New Taipei City. So just lately the issue has not been so acute.  

So I counted them. These do not include the dozens I had when I was a young child growing up in the UK but since my move to Asia in 1997. I have had a total of 24 vaccines from the time I left the UK for Asia in the mid-1990s through my trips back and forth to India and China, plus one Yellow Fever we needed to go and teach a Hostile Environment Awareness Course for journalists in Africa for Xinhua. Of course, most recently, the Covid shot.  

Joyce, of course, has had a similar number having traipsed all over Asia with me and my job.

I remember well the visit to the Inoculation Centre in Sydney, prior to our departure for Bombay. 

We dutifully arrived at the centre in Bligh Street Sydney and were shown into a well turned out modern office with a tiny and fragile looking Indian lady doctor behind a huge desk. 

She peered at us over the top of half-moon spectacles and cheerfully asked if the notes she had were correct and we were heading for India. We said yes.

She chirruped and tilted her head like a curious bird and told us how she was born and spent the first few years of her life in Bombay and how she envied us and how she would love to return to see the place.

She picked up a small book… this is how the conversation went… 

Dr - OK, how long for, is this just a holiday or a business trip, or something longer? she said, opening the slim edition.  

Me - Three to five years. 

She put down the book and dragged, across a larger edition which she opened. 

Dr - Right, will you be staying only in Bombay?

Me - No, we will both be travelling throughout India. 

She closed that book and dragged across another and opened it.

Dr - Only staying in India?

Me - No, I’ll be travelling to Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan and possibly anywhere else in South Asia. 

She looked me in the eye…

Dr - In rural areas too? 

Me - Oh yes, very possibly, all of those. 

She smiled, tilted her bird-like head the other way, snapped the large book shut and declared. 

“I’ll give you the lot...just be on the safe side.” 

So poor Mrs Smith had to endure all the shots. From memory we had two or three visits to complete all the shots we needed which in total was 17 separate vaccines for our trip to India. Some, like the Covid shots, were twinned to complete the first course. 

Did we ever think we were in any danger, not for a moment. Did we think it was not the sensible thing to do, not for a moment. Did we trust the doctors and the science, of course. 

(Speaking of which, my brother is a medical physicist/scientist and while I’d not trust him to walk my dog….I do trust his science.) 

I’m still surprised that vaccine juice is not leaking out of my ears after all this time given how much has been injected into me over the past 25 years. Not to mention what was stabbed into me as a child in the UK.

As the old English proverb says. “Diseases come on horseback, but steal away on foot.” Getting as many people vaccinated is the only way to beat Covid, and it will take more time.  

This is just one small reason I have no time for anti-vaxxers.

Tinkerty Tonk... 

《 疫苗？到底有什麼問題！》

前幾天我想到一件事，為什麼我對反疫苗者毫無耐心，因為他們已經到達近乎荒謬的境界，聲稱疫苗具有磁性和藍牙功能。

(拜託上帝，真是這樣的話請讓我啟用我體內的藍牙，這樣當 J 和我在車子裡時，我就可以在腦海裡想像“是的，親愛的”和“不是的，親愛的”，讓汽車音響清楚地代我回答她的各種政治抱怨，這通常在高速公路上每五公里就會發生一次。）

我們的豐田汽車沒有天花板，所以當我們在車裡時，她無法衝上天花板我難以擺脫這些抱怨，不過由於我們所在的雙北這幾個月有小規模的疫情爆發，我們無法經常旅行，所以最近這個問題還沒有那麼明顯。

我一直在想的是我一生中接種了多少次疫苗。

於是我數了數，不包括我小時候在英國長大期間接種的幾十種疫苗，但自從我 1997 年搬到亞洲以來，應該是說從 1990 年代中期準備離開英國前往亞洲以來，我總共接種了 24 種疫苗。

這包括我派駐印度兩次和中國一次，還得加上黃熱病疫苗，當時我去非洲幫中國新華社派駐非洲的記者開了一門如何在危險環境中採訪的訓練課程。最近我已經在台灣接種了兩劑 AZ 疫苗。

當然，喬伊斯也有類似的經歷，因為她跟著我和我的工作，在亞洲各地遊蕩。

我們從澳洲啟程前往印度之前，在雪梨市區接種中心發生的事，至今我還記得很清楚。

路透社安排我們拜訪雪梨市區布萊街的醫療中心，當天我們被帶進一間裝修精美的現代化辦公室，在一張巨大的辦公桌後面，坐著一位外表嬌小的印度裔女醫生。

她抬起眼從半月形眼鏡的上端凝視著我們，接著很開心地確認預約記錄上我們即將前往印度是否正確。我們說是的。

她像一隻好奇的小鳥一樣啾啾地說著話，歪著頭，告訴我們她出生在孟買和如何在那裡度過她生命中的最初幾年，她又是如何嫉妒我們可以去住在孟買，以及她是如何喜歡拜訪孟買。

她拿出一本不太厚的疫苗指引，我們談話是這樣進行的……

醫生：好的，你們要去那兒多久？這只是假期或商務旅行，還是更長的時間？她邊說邊翻開那本疫苗參考書。

我：三到五年。

她放下那本，抽出比較厚的另一本，打開。

 醫生：好，你們會只待在孟買嗎？

 我：不，我們將會在整個印度旅行。

 她合上那本，抽出另一本，打開。

 醫生：只待在印度？

我：不，我會前往阿富汗、斯里蘭卡、孟加拉、巴基斯坦以及南亞的其他任何地方。

醫生現在看著我的眼睛……

醫生：農村地區也會去是嗎？

我：哦，是的，很可能，所有的地方都有可能。

她微笑著，把她那像小鳥一樣的腦袋歪向另一邊，啪地一聲合上那本厚厚的疫苗指南對著我們宣布。

 “我把全部可能的疫苗都給你們……只是為了安全起見。”

可憐的史密斯太太不得不忍受一針又一針。根據記憶，我們造訪了接種中心幾次才能完成我們需要的所有疫苗，總共17種。有些跟 Covid 疫苗一樣，必須打兩針。

打了這麼多疫苗，我們有沒有想過我們處於危險之中，一刻也沒有。 我們是否認為這不是明智的做法，一刻也沒有。我們是否相信醫生和科學？當然。。

(我哥哥是醫學物理學家，如果我們有養狗我不會放心他幫我去遛狗，但我相信他的科學。）

其實我很驚訝，即使過了這麼久，那些疫苗也沒有從我的耳朵裡滿出來。

就像一個古老英國諺語說的，疾病騎在馬背上飛馳而來，卻安步當車散步而去。盡量讓更多人施打疫苗，是對抗 Covid 的辦法，雖然過程會很長。

這只是我對那些反疫苗者零容忍的一個小原因而已。

Tinkerty Tonk… 掰掰。

There will never be another - we hope

A lot of people suffer from a lack of self-awareness. With some people it reaches a level where it turns into farce, and in the case of some politicians around the world into something dangerous. 

Power does something to some people who can’t handle it, or have never been in a situation in their lives where they are told they are wrong. 

I have seen it many times in reporting on political leaders where the privileged - Boris Johnson - or leaders from more ordinary backgrounds like Margaret Thatcher, gradually sink into a kind of paranoid, God Complex state and have to be forced out of office by those around them with greater sanity. 

Johnson is from a privileged background and part of the elite that exists in the UK. He is irresponsible in the extreme having been sacked for lying at least twice and fathering numerous illegitimate children. He is lying in office now and that is well documented if you have time to Google <Boris Johnson lies>

Thatcher was Prime Minister for fifteen years and while not from an elite background she sank into a torpor of paranoia and was forced from office. To be fair, many leaders become more paranoid the longer they are in office and it is certainly not uncommon. It’s why most countries only allow a certain time in high office before an individual has to step aside. 

What worries me is the current Mayor of Taipei, we seem to have a disarray of personality that combines the worst of both these examples. I’ve already written about the God Complex and the Dunning-Kruger effect, but the quote I saw the other day from him took my breath away.

It was used in 2016 in an article by one of my ex-students at Tai Da.  

"I am smart enough and I work hard. I know that, but I also believe that after Ko Wen-je, there will be no Ko Wen-je. Following the Ko Wen-je phenomenon...2016... there will not be a next one. It is very difficult. Maybe someone will come out in every generation, and there will be another one in the future. Yes, but sometimes a masterpiece is only once."

Also remember that in 2015 the Apple Daily quoted him as saying "I am the one chosen by God to save Taiwan." 

An open display of colossal arrogance is hard to stomach at the best of times, but when you combine this with an ego that has clearly been allowed to run riot by the dimwitted sycophants he has surrounded himself with, things start to look extremely worrying. Combine this with an equally dimwitted wife and an elderly mother who both keep chipping in saying what a genius he is and you have a recipe for a psychological disaster.

His descent into paranoia is also fascinating. I covered Margaret Thatcher towards the end of her premiership and there are striking similarities, although even Thatcher was not daft enough to just blindly blame everyone but herself for anything that went wrong. She had more respect for the public than that, even as her delusions became ever grander.  

Not so Ko, who has such a low opinion of people that he just tries to lay the blame off anywhere he can. It is distressing when so-called leaders are so desperate and disturbed that they insult ordinary people by insisting they are perfect and anything that does not go right is someone else’s fault.

His angry outbursts when a carefully stage-managed press conference goes wrong and a reporter is brave enough to ask a difficult question, quickly results in a jabbing finger and a raised voice as the self-control slips away amid a barrage of excuses and the paranoid delusion that it’s all the fault of the media and a grand plot by political rivals. 

This is when you get a glimpse of his real self and Mr Hyde shows through Dr Jekyll. Maybe he is having too many conversations with God.    

 It’s good his time as Mayor is coming to an end and his stated aim of being President, I’m happy to say, is looking more remote as each day goes by simply because of his arrogance, lack of any real talent in the job, ridiculous support team, Facebooking wife and loose-lipped mother. 

He is rightly a laughing stock and the sad thing is he doesn’t seem to realise it, and strikes such a pathetic and lonely figure that I almost feel sorry for him.

Walking round the market yesterday with trousers up and a delivery trolley in tow, was telling. Surely, having banged on about the kind of shopping trolleys you buy in the 10-dollar store he drags around a 7-11 style delivery trolley. 

Didn’t anyone in his army of advisors think to pop out and buy one for the photo-opportunity. Clearly not, and they just popped to the caretakers office in the basement and borrowed his. 

Or maybe his advisors are not really not stupid at all. Maybe they realise how dangerously flawed, immature and dense this man is that they are deliberately trying to undermine him. Is their great aim to make him look so ridiculous that his pitch at the Presidency will fizzle out and we will never hear from him again. Maybe they are all spies secretly working for the DPP?

They are certainly good at making him look like the fool he undoubtedly is. 

Maybe we will all end up thanking them? 

Tinkerty Tonk

《 不會再有下一個了 － 希望如此 》 很多人有缺乏自我意識的困擾，這種情形在一些人身上到達某種程度就會變成鬧劇，而放到世界各地的一些政治人物身上，會變成危險。 權力對某些人有一定的影響，尤其是對那些無法駕馭權力的人，或是那些一輩子從來沒有被告知他們犯錯的人。 我在報導政治領袖時多次看到這種情況，不論是來自特權階級的英國現任首相強生，或是出身平凡的前首相鐵娘子柴契爾夫人，在位時他們都逐漸陷入一種偏執的、上帝情結的狀態，最後終究會被周圍比他們更清醒的人趕下台。 強生來自權貴背景，是還存在英國的菁英階級。他極端不負責任，至少兩次因為撒謊被革職，並且有不少私生子，即使在目前的職位上他還在繼續撒謊。如果你有時間谷歌，只要搜索 <強生說謊>就可以。 柴契爾夫人當了 15 年的首相，雖然不是來自菁英背景，但她一樣陷入了偏執的麻木，最後被迫下台。 公平地說，許多政治領袖在任時間越長就越偏執，這當然沒什麼稀奇，或許這就是為什麼大多數國家對高位者有任期限制。 令我擔心的是現任台北市長，因為在他身上我們似乎看見性格混亂，而且綜合了以上兩個例子最壞的一面。我已經寫過關於上帝情結和克魯格效應的文章，但最近看到一些他說過的話，還是讓我倒吸了一口氣。 以下這段訪問來自我在台大新聞研究所開課時選課的前學生，她當時在風傳媒工作。 「我是夠聰明夠用功，這我是知道，但我也相信很多東西柯文哲之後，就沒有柯文哲了，柯文哲現象2016之後還是沒有下一個，很困難。也許江山代有人出，以後還會再有，但是有時候一個masterpiece（指自己是傑作）就是only once（只有一次的傑作）」 蘋果日報在 2015年也引用他的話：「我是被上天選擇的人，來挽救台灣的。」 就算在最好的情況下，公開表現出巨大的傲慢已經令人難以忍受，而進一步與自我結合起來時，事情開始看起來非常令人擔憂，因為這個自我，很明顯已經被他安置在自己周圍那些愚蠢的馬屁精們無限放大。再加上同樣不是那麼聰明的妻子和母親，她們不停加入說他是一個多麼天才的人，這時候災難食譜已經自動寫好了。 他陷入偏執狀態一事也很吸引人，柴契爾夫人擔任首相後期我在英國採訪國會，我發現了驚人的相似之處，不過柴契爾夫人沒有那麼愚蠢，沒有盲目地將所有的錯誤歸咎於除了她自己之外的任何人。即使最後她的妄想越來越嚴重，她對大眾的尊重還是有的。 但是對台北市長而言似乎不是如此。他對他人的評價如此之低，以至於一有機會就把錯誤歸咎於人。所謂的領導者無計可施並且焦躁不安，他們堅持自己是完美的，任何不正確的事情都是別人的錯，這對普通人是一種侮辱，也是令人痛苦的。 在精心安排的記者會上，記者有足夠的勇氣提出一個棘手的問題時，他的憤怒立刻爆發，很快導致揮舞手臂提高聲量，他的自我控制似乎在一大堆藉口和偏執中消失了。在他想像之中，這都是媒體的錯，是政治對手的巨大陰謀。 這是你瞥見他真實自我的時候，一如化身博士書中海德先生通過哲基爾博士發現自己。也許他與上帝的對話太多了。 化身博士 (Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde) 這本書講述了體面的哲基爾博士 (Jekyll) 喝了自己配制的藥劑，人格分裂出邪惡的海德先生 (Hyde) 的故事。 這是 1886 年蘇格蘭作家 Robert Louis Stevenson 的名作，因書中人物哲基爾和海德善惡截然不同的性格讓人印象深刻，後來「Jekyll and Hyde」一詞成為心理學「雙重人格」的代名詞。曾多次被改編為音樂劇、電影等。 台北市長的任期即將結束是件好事，我得承認我很高興他想當總統的既定目標看起來似乎越來越遙遠，因為他的傲慢，因為在工作上缺乏任何真正的天賦，因為荒謬的支持團隊，還有他勤於在臉書上發文的妻子和無法住口的母親。 因此他理所當然地成為笑柄，可悲的是他似乎並沒有意識到這一點，而這樣一個可憐而孤獨的形象，幾乎讓我為他感到難過。 昨天他穿著高腰褲，拖著一輛手推車在市場裡走來走去，這很能說明問題的所在。當然，在他大力宣傳要去市場的市民應該到生活百貨店買菜籃車之後，他卻是拖著一輛 7-11 風格的送貨手推車。 難道他的幕僚顧問大軍中，沒有人想到為了這個媒體拍照的機會去買一台菜籃車？顯然沒有，他們可能只是跑到批發市場地下室去借了這台手推車。 或者，其實他的顧問們一點也不傻。也許他們意識到這個人的缺陷有多麼危險，多麼不成熟，多麼不聰明，因此他們故意破壞。他們的偉大目標是讓他看起來如此荒謬，以至於他想成為總統的目標會逐漸泡沫化，然後我們就再也聽不到他的消息了嗎？ 說不定他們都是 DPP 臥底的間諜？ 那麼他們當然會努力，讓人覺得毫無疑問他是個傻瓜。 也許我們最終都會感謝他們？ Tinkerty Tonk... 掰掰。

生日快樂

今天是先生的birthday ，也是台灣民眾黨創黨兩週年紀念，想到當初特別選了這麼有意義的日子成立政黨，心裡有說不出的感動，尤其最近先生被萬年執政的民進黨側翼抹黑成唱衰台灣和生技產業的罪人，今天這個日子格外令人有感觸。

   臺灣民眾黨是蔣渭水在1927年創立的，是台灣人在日本統治下成立的第一個政黨。先生一直以來就非常推崇蔣渭水，他是醫生，是學術界的一份子，也是政治家科學家哲學家，由他來繼承這個黨名，而且是在民進黨統治下成立的，真是再適合不過。

  印象中蔣渭水後代成立的蔣渭水文化基金會資料顯示蔣渭水是在1891年的2月8日出生，不過我Google 之後發現也有資料說他和先生一樣是8月6日出生，只能說這一切都是命中註定。酸民們愛怎麼說就怎麼說吧，反正他柯文哲也不差這一條罪名，政壇受虐兒也當慣了。

  最近因為打殘劑的問題我已經數星期不和老公talk 了，當然他也不會有鮭魚料理可以吃，不過前兩天我們倒是有志一同發了關於疫苗的文，只能說結婚那麼多年了，又一樣有醫療專業當了幾十年醫生，不心有靈犀一點通也難。

  疫情或是疫苗的事我還是不要再發表意見了，不然又會招來無止盡的攻擊抹黑。只不過我身為醫生，還是希望執政黨以蒼生為念，去跟日本買 AZ 也可以，為什麼一定要用大家害怕的國產疫苗把台灣變成全世界最大的人體實驗場？還有就像先生說的，為什麼要阻止國際認證的疫苗進入台灣？

  最近先生回家因為我不跟他talk 他就盯著電視看政論節目，轉來轉去每一台都有人在罵他，雖然在冷戰期間我也覺得很心疼，實在很擔心他把手邊的東西拿起來就丟向電視。

  其實就算我只是一個小市民整天看病，處理家務，幫早就成年的小孩預約搶打殘劑，也還有人攻擊我邪惡。我想問問那位網友，在人家臉書留言攻擊，不道德耶。寫到這裡，其實連我都這樣，萬年執政黨一聲令下就鋪天蓋地攻擊先生，也是必然的吧。

  不過看看指揮官，就算他沒有讀台大醫科只是個牙醫，只要民調高，態度傲慢又有什麼關係？只能說人生來就有貴賤不同，總統可以選擇打高端，我沒有選擇只能打 AZ.

  雖然還在冷戰階段，我還是要寫在這裡給他看，反正事必躬親的幕僚會告訴他。我要祝先生生日快樂，只要他心存善念，盡力而為，我一定會是他最強的後盾。這麼多年來，謝謝你teaching 我這麼多。

  就算人家有資源有媒體有網軍，我們連朋友也沒有，但是我們有支持者，只要和支持者互相鼓勵扶持，一定可以達到治理國家的目標。

#開開玩笑佩琪別生氣 

勇敢自信，世界同行

 即使曾經有幸採訪過一次奧運，我對運動賽事的興趣是零甚至可以說是負數，但是對台灣參賽的新聞絕對不會放過。

東奧看到最多的評論就是台灣選手的自信專注，還有一種自然而然凝聚的力量，不就是這樣嗎？沒有拿到金牌哽咽倔強說我就是要拿金牌，全國跟著掉眼淚；拿了獎牌後那種極具感染性的笑容，立刻發文要把榮耀獻給我的國家台灣，再度讓人眼眶發熱喉頭一緊。而沒有得獎的選手，網路上一片安慰鼓勵之聲，沒關係已經很棒，下次再來，鼓勵自己人不夠還去安慰外國人。

雖然還是有巴不得可以把台灣搞得天翻地覆的一些敗類，他們的破壞力也不容小覷，但是整體而言台灣近年來的努力和向心力，似乎在疫情之中一發不可收拾，然後在此次奧運中發揚光大。這些都自然而然發生，無需刻意，然後我們就被看見了。

是的蔡英文很棒，陳時中很棒，唐鳳很棒，但我們不也很棒？

我們努力配合防疫，我們彼此督促戴口罩勤洗手，我們不亂跑，參賽選手下場第一件事就是戴口罩，幾乎是一種反射動作。這就是為什麼我們的防疫成績有目共睹吧我想，藍白魯蛇可以繼續攻擊疫苗不夠，但不能否認的是台灣人在疫情之中，走出一條自己的路，不只是疫情的路，是很多國家注意到而且羨慕的。

這一代的台灣人沒有悲情毫不畏懼，東奧年輕選手的自信樂觀，以代表國家為榮之外，更看見他們享受比賽的神采飛揚以禮待人，那不就是台灣人最標準的模樣？說出獻給我的國家台灣那一刻，我們不想要的，中國黨加諸的過往，只會是台灣歷史上的一個章節。

終有一天，我們會以台灣之名站上每一個國際舞台，世界在迅速改變，霸凌會過期的。